WorldCat Identities

Silver, Nate 1978-

Overview
Works: 13 works in 47 publications in 4 languages and 2,609 library holdings
Genres: History 
Classifications: CB158, 519.542
Publication Timeline
Key
Publications about  Nate Silver Publications about Nate Silver
Publications by  Nate Silver Publications by Nate Silver
Most widely held works by Nate Silver
The signal and the noise : why so many predictions fail--but some don't by Nate Silver ( Book )
11 editions published between 2012 and 2013 in English and held by 2,220 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Human beings have to make plans and strategize for the future. As the pace of our lives becomes faster and faster, we have to do so more often and more quickly. But are our predictions any good? Is there hope for improvement? In this book the author examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy, ever-increasing data. Many predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. We are wired to detect a signal, and we mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the prediction paradox: the more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, and the more we are willing to learn from our mistakes, the more we can turn information into knowledge and data into foresight. The author examines both successes and failures to determine what more accurate forecasters have in common. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, he visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. Even when their innovations are modest, we can learn from their methods. How can we train ourselves to think probabilistically, as they do? How can the insights of an eighteenth-century Englishman unlock the twenty-first-century challenges of global warming and terrorism? How can being smarter about the future help us make better decisions in the present?
The signal and the noise : the art and science of prediction / Nate Silver by Nate Silver ( Book )
1 edition published in 2012 in English and held by 82 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This work explores the history, art and science of prediction
The signal and the noise : why most predictions fail-- but some don't by Nate Silver ( Book )
3 editions published in 2012 in English and held by 78 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction
The signal and the noise : the art and science of prediction by Nate Silver ( Book )
12 editions published between 2012 and 2013 in English and held by 51 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction
The signal and the noise why most predictions fail--but some don't by Nate Silver ( Recording )
4 editions published between 2012 and 2013 in English and held by 51 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
The founder of FiveThirtyEight.com challenges myths about predictions in subjects ranging from the financial market and weather to sports and politics, profiling the world of prediction to explain how to distinguish true signals from hype
The signal and the noise : why most predictions fail, but some succeed by Nate Silver ( Book )
1 edition published in 2013 in English and held by 43 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction
What is the probability your vote will make a difference? by Andrew Gelman ( )
5 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 40 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
One of the motivations for voting is that one vote can make a difference. In a presidential election, the probability that your vote is decisive is equal to the probability that your state is necessary for an electoral college win, times the probability the vote in your state is tied in that event. We computed these probabilities a week before the 2008 presidential election, using state-by-state election forecasts based on the latest polls. The states where a single vote was most likely to matter are New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado, where your vote had an approximate 1 in 10 million chance of determining the national election outcome. On average, a voter in America had a 1 in 60 million chance of being decisive in the presidential election
Die Berechnung der Zukunft : warum die meisten Prognosen falsch sind und manche trotzdem zutreffen by Nate Silver ( Book )
2 editions published in 2013 in German and held by 26 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
The signal and the noise-- in 30 minutes the expert guide to Nate Silver's [critically acclaimed book] ( )
1 edition published in 2013 in English and held by 7 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Jing zhun yu ce : ru he cong ju liang za xun zhong, kan chu zhong yao de xun hao? by Nate Silver ( Book )
2 editions published in 2013 in Chinese and held by 5 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Shigunaru ando noizu : tensai dēta anarisuto no yosokugaku by Nate Silver ( Book )
3 editions published in 2013 in Japanese and held by 3 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
The signal and the noise why so many predictions fail--but some don't by Nate Silver ( )
1 edition published in 2012 in English and held by 2 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Xin hao yu zao sheng by Nate Silver ( Book )
1 edition published in 2013 in Chinese and held by 1 WorldCat member library worldwide
 
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Audience Level
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Audience level: 0.24 (from 0.08 for The signal ... to 0.90 for What is th ...)
Alternative Names
Silver, Nate
Silver, Nathaniel Read.
Silver, Nathaniel Read, 1978-
シルバー, ネイト
Languages
English (39)
Japanese (3)
Chinese (3)
German (2)