WorldCat Identities

Dalkey, Norman 1915-

Works: 60 works in 200 publications in 2 languages and 1,468 library holdings
Genres: Prophecies 
Roles: Author, Creator
Publication Timeline
Most widely held works by Norman Dalkey
Studies in the quality of life; Delphi and decision-making by Norman Dalkey( Book )

16 editions published between 1970 and 1972 in English and held by 409 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Human health damages from mobile source air pollution by Zhitian Liang( Book )

2 editions published in 1978 in English and held by 141 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The Delphi method by Norman Dalkey( Book )

21 editions published between 1968 and 1970 in English and held by 115 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

A report of results of experimentation on the effectiveness of Delphi procedures, which incorporate anonymous response, iteration and controlled feedback, and statistical group response to elicit and refine group judgments where exact knowledge is unavailable. In spring 1968, Rand conducted 10 experiments using over 150 university students. Questions related to almanac-type information. Results showed that controlled feedback, compared with face-to-face discussion, improved the accuracy of group estimates, thus validating the use of Delphi techniques in areas of partial information. Insight was gained into group information processes. A meaningful estimate of the accuracy of a group response to a given question can be obtained by combining individual self-rating of competence on that question into a group rating. Adding this result to an observed relationship between accuracy and standard deviation makes it possible to attach accuracy scores to the products of a Delphi exercise. (Author)
Experimental assessment of Delphi procedures with group value judgments by Norman Dalkey( Book )

9 editions published in 1971 in English and held by 64 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This report describes the results of an experiment assessing the appropriateness of Delphi procedures for formulating group value judgments. Two groups of subjects--upperclass and graduate students from UCLA--were asked to generate and rate value categories relating to higher education and the quality of life. The initial lists (300 and 250 items respectively) were aggregated by the experimental teams to 45 and 48 items respectively. The subjects then rated all possible pairs of these items with respect to their similarity. The average similarity ratings were analyzed by a clustering routine. Subjects from both groups made estimates of the relative contributions of each of the educational categories to each of the quality of life categories. The primary data analyses concerned the importance rating. Three aspects were examined: the quality of the distributions of the responses, the correlation between ratings by different groups and different rating techniques, and the amount of change and degree of convergence upon iteration with feedback. The experiment furnished support for the conclusion that Delphi procedures are appropriate for processing value material as well as factual material. The substantive data concerning higher education and individual life also indicated the possibility that current notions of the role of the university are somewhat loosely tied to the basic interests of the students. A 13-item bibliography is included. (Author/MJM)
La prevision a long terme par la methode delphi : par N. Dalkey, avec B. Brown, S. Cochran. Trad. par F. Rostand. Pref. de A. Kaufmann by Norman Dalkey( Book )

14 editions published in 1972 in French and held by 57 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Cet ouvrage traite d'une méthode pouvant améliorer la prise de décisions
Comparison of group judgment techniques with short-range predictions and almanac questions by Norman Dalkey( Book )

6 editions published in 1971 in English and held by 56 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

An experiment designed to discover whether the results of laboratory studies dealing with general (almanac) information are relevant to the applied case when the true answer is unknown. Using short-range prediction questions as subject matter, the experiment indicates that, in general, Delphi procedures are at least as effective with short-range prediction as they have been for almanac material. Eight groups, of about 20 each, of upperclassmen and college graduates were given short-range prediction questions to answer in a 2-round Delphi exercise. Satisfactory answers were obtained for 32 of the 40 questions. Correlations between standard deviation and accuracy, and between group self- rating and accuracy, were significantly higher for the prediction than for the almanac questions. Half the groups generated estimates of the 3 quartiles of the distribution; the other half generated point estimates. No significant difference was observed between these two kinds of estimates
Measurement and analysis of the quality of life: with exploratory illustrations of applications to career and transportation choices by Norman Dalkey( Book )

8 editions published in 1970 in English and held by 55 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

An elementary cross-impact model by Norman Dalkey( Book )

5 editions published in 1971 in English and held by 53 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Cross-impact analysis is a method for revising estimated probabilities of future events in terms of estimated interactions among those events. The report presents an elementary cross-impact model where the cross-impacts are formulated as relative probabilities. Conditions are derived for the consistency of the matrix of relative probabilities of n events. An extension also provides a necessary condition for the vector of absolute probabilities to be consistent with the relative probability matrix. An averaging technique is formulated for resolving inconsistencies in the matrix, and a nearest-point computation is derived for resolving inconsistencies between the set of absolute probabilities and the matrix. Although elementary, the present model clarifies some of the conceptual problems associated with cross-impact analysis, and supplies a relatively sound basis for revising probability estimates in the limited case where interactions can be approximated by relative probabilities. (Author)
An impossibility theorem for group probability functions by Norman Dalkey( Book )

4 editions published between 1969 and 1972 in English and held by 50 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The theorem is proved that under several natural assumptions, there is no aggregation function for individual probability estimates which itself is a probability function. (Author)
The Delphi method, II: structure of experiments by Bernice B Brown( Book )

7 editions published between 1900 and 1969 in English and held by 41 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The paper presents compilation of the experimental designs, questionnaires, and resulting group response data representing the raw materials of a Rand evaluation of Delphi procedures. (Analysis of the data and major conclusions are presented in AD-690 498). The Delphi technique uses an anonymous, orderly program of sequential individual interrogations, with controlled feedback from respondents between interrogations, to elicit and refine group judgments where exact knowledge is unavailable. Different experiments tested different hypotheses. One was designed to compare the relative accuracy of group answers obtained by the Delphi questionnaire-feedback method with those obtained by a structured, face-to-face discussion
Delphi by Norman Dalkey( Book )

9 editions published in 1967 in English and held by 41 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

An outline of the Delphi technique of long-range forecasting by separately eliciting and refining the opinions of a group of advisers without contact among them, and calculating a statistical "group response." The procedure was designed to overcome the disadvantages common to committees and small groups. The experts reply to written questionnaires or an online computer, receive statistical feedback through formal lines of communication, and resubmit their estimates. Where the response is a number (such as a date or amount), the most useful index has been the median of the individual estimates. During the process, opinions do converge; where answers can be checked against reality, it is found that the median response tends to move in the direction of the true answer. Self-confidence is not correlated with individual performance, but the subgroup with the highest self-ratings for competence will consistently perform slightly better than the group as a whole
Experiments in group prediction by Norman Dalkey( Book )

6 editions published in 1968 in English and held by 33 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The usual way of using a group for the formulation of opinion is by way of face-to-face discussion in a committee, commission, or panel. A large number of recent investigations by social psychologists have demonstrated that face-to-face discussion has serious drawbacks. Chief among these are: influence of dominant individuals, noise, and group pressure toward conformity. To ameliorate some of these difficulties, a procedure called Delphi has been developed at RAND. This procedure has three basic features: (1) Anonymity; (2) controlled feedback; and (3) statistical group response. The results of these exercises are briefly summarized as follows: (1) In almost all cases, there is a pronounced convergence of opinion with iteration; (2) the principle decrease is between the first and second rounds; and (3) most significant, for those cases where the accuracy of responses can be checked, the accuracy of the group response increases with iteration. (Author)
Predicting the future by Norman Dalkey( Book )

5 editions published in 1968 in English and held by 32 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Opinion is basic to long-range developmental forecasting. The difficulties (such as the influence of dominant individuals, noise, and group pressure for conformity) of obtaining a group opinion through traditional face-to-face interaction led to the development of the Delphi procedures, which are described in this paper. The characteristics of these procedures--anonymity, iteration with controlled response, and statistical group response--derive from RAND's discovery that simply the average of individual opinions, without discussion, tends to be more accurate than group opinion resulting from discussion. The experiments that led to these results involved almanac questions, such as, how many votes did Kennedy receive in the 1960 Presidential election in Texas? An initially wide range of answers were found to gradually converge, improving in accuracy in the majority of cases; the pattern of responses resembled a log-normal curve. Further studies will attempt to dampen the effect of group pressure while amplifying accuracy
Quality of life by Norman Dalkey( Book )

5 editions published in 1968 in English and held by 32 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The document contains the personal suggestions of an American corporation staff member in the field of social programs, particularly as to the meaning of well being to the human individual
Simulation of military conflict by Norman Dalkey( Book )

2 editions published in 1967 in English and held by 25 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The use of simulation in support of military decisions is discussed. War games such as STRAW, SWAP, COW, TAGS, STAGE, and TEMPER are briefly reviewed, and the hypothetico-duductive approach is considered. The four uncertainties which the military analyst faces in the evaluation of weapon systems and weapons employment, i.e. stochastic, epistemic, strategic, and axiological, are examined in detail. It is concluded that one of the greatest challenges facing the operations research community is the development of more powerful techniques for dealing with complex situations
Families of models by Norman Dalkey( Book )

2 editions published in 1965 in English and held by 24 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Operations research by Norman Dalkey( Book )

2 editions published in 1967 in English and held by 21 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This is a review of the historical background and the present applications for operations research
Central nuclear war games by Norman Dalkey( Book )

2 editions published in 1966 in English and held by 20 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

A simplified central nuclear war game called STROP is discussed. This is an aggregated model of the nuclear exchange coded for an IBM 7040-44. It involves one kind of missile, one kind of bomber, bomber area defenses, bomber local defenses, and antiballistic missiles. All other targets are lumped into a single class of value targets. Strategic choice is limited to the allocation of missiles and bombers to the various kinds of targets. Timing factors, such as warning time and rate of fire, and retargeting capabilities are input parameters. STROP is designed to fit into a family of models, specifically, a hierarchy consisting of an intermediate level and a highly detailed simulation of the nuclear exchange. The results of the more aggregated routines can be fed as partial inputs into the more detailed routines. Thus it is possible to check the reasonableness of STROP outcomes by comparison with the more extensive models
Parity pattern on even semigraphs by Norman Dalkey( Book )

3 editions published in 1966 in English and held by 19 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

A theorem and proofs are given for arriving at parity patterns on semigraphs, or elementary cycles in the plane, completely triangulated on one side and with no points or lines on the other side. 5 pp
STROP : a strategic planning model by Norman Dalkey( Book )

2 editions published in 1966 in English and held by 19 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

STROP is a highly aggregated central nuclear war game, coded for a high-speed computer, which evaluates a pair of Red and Blue allocations of missiles and bombers to some combination of four target systems: missile, sites, bomber fields, bomber defenses, and value targets. The routine will evaluate one pair of Red and Blue allocations in about 1/50 of a second. The routine can be used to generate and survey a large sample of Red and Blue allocations or to evaluate specific allocations selected by the analyst. STROP is designed as one element of a family of central nuclear war models concerned with the generation of strategic war plans and the evaluation of strategic force structures. (Author)
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Alternative Names
Dalkey, N. C. (Norman C.), 1915-

Dalkey, Norman Crolee 1915-

Norman Dalkey American mathematician

English (116)

French (14)