WorldCat Identities

Pakes, Ariel

Works: 112 works in 409 publications in 1 language and 2,589 library holdings
Genres: Conference papers and proceedings 
Roles: Author, Honoree
Classifications: HB1, 330.072
Publication Timeline
Most widely held works by Ariel Pakes
Differentiated products demand systems from a combination of micro and macro data : the new car market by Steven Berry( Book )

16 editions published between 1998 and 2004 in English and held by 69 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

In this paper, we exploit new sources of cross-sectional data to estimate a detailed product-level demand system for new passenger vehicles. We use four data sources: on the characteristics of products, on the attributes of the U.S. population of households, on the match between the first and second vehicle choices of the household, and on the match between households attributes and first choice vehicles. We show that these data solve some, but not all, of the traditional problems in estimating differentiated products demand systems and indicate which data sources are important for which problem. The data is rich enough to reveal a rather complex substitution pattern, requiring a quite general modeling framework. Together the data and model make a detailed analysis of industry demand possible
Voluntary export restraints on automobiles : evaluating a strategic trade policy by Steven Berry( Book )

12 editions published in 1995 in English and held by 66 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

In May, 1981, a voluntary export restraint (VER) was placed on exports of automobiles from Japan to the United States. As trade policies go, this one was important. At about the same time, though to much less fanfare, international trade theorists were obtaining (then) startling results from models of international trade in imperfectly competitive markets. These models suggested that in imperfectly competitive markets, an activist trade policy might enhance national welfare. In this paper, we provide some empirical evidence on whether these new theoretical possibilities might actually apply to the policy of VERs
A dynamic oligopoly with collusion and price wars by Chaim Fershtman( Book )

15 editions published between 1998 and 1999 in English and held by 62 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Most of the theoretical work on collusion and price wars assumes identical firms and an unchanging environment, assumptions which are at odds with what we know about most industries. Further that literature focuses on the impact of collusion on prices. Whether an industry can support collusion also effects investment incentives and hence the variety, cost, and quality of the products marketed. We provide a collusive framework with heterogeneity among firms, investment, entry, and exit. It is a symmetric information model in which it is hard to sustain collusion when either one of the firms does not keep up with the advances of its competitors, or a low quality' entrant enters. In either case there will be an active firm that is quite likely to exit after it deviates, but if one of the competitors is near an exit state the other incumbent(s) has an incentive to price predatorily (that is to deviate themselves). We use numerical analysis to compare an institutional structure that allows for collusion to one which does not (perhaps because of an active antitrust authority). Price paths clearly differ in the two environments; in particular only the collusive industry generates price wars. The collusive industry offers both more and higher quality products to consumers, albeit often at a higher price. The positive effect of collusion on the variety and quality of products marketed more than compensates consumers for the negative effect of collusive prices, so that consumer surplus is larger in the collusive environment
Environmental change and hedonic cost functions for automobiles by Steven Berry( Book )

13 editions published between 1995 and 1996 in English and held by 61 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper focuses on how changes in the economic and regulatory environment have affected production costs and product characteristics in the automobile industry. We estimate cost functions characteristics. Then we examine how this cost surface has changed over time and how these changes relate to changes in gas prices and in emission standard regulations. We also briefly consider the related questions of how changes in automobile characteristics, and in the rate of patenting, are related to regulations and gas prices
How to count patents and value intellectual property : uses of patent renewal and application data by Jean Olson Lanjouw( Book )

13 editions published in 1996 in English and held by 59 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Engl. Zusammenfass
The dynamics of productivity in the telecommunications equipment industry by G. Steven Olley( Book )

12 editions published in 1992 in English and held by 48 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Technological change and deregulation have caused a major restructuring of the telecommunications equipment industry over the last two decades. We estimate the parameters of a production function for the equipment industry and then use those estimates to analyze the evolution of plant level productivity over this period. The restructuring involved significant entry and exit and large changes in the sizes of incumbents. Since firms' choices on whether to liquidate and on the quantities of inputs demanded should they continue depend on their productivity, we use an equilibrium model to suggest an estimation algorithm that takes into account the relationship between productivity on the one hand. and both input demand and survival on the other. A fully parametric version of the estimation algorithm would be both computationally burdensome and require a host of auxiliary assumptions. So we develop a semi parametric technique which is both consistent with a quite general version of the theoretical framework and easy to use. The algorithm produces markedly different estimates of both production function parameters and of productivity movements than traditional estimation procedures. We find an increase in the rate of industry productivity growth after deregulation. This in spite of the fact there was no increase in the average of the plants' rates of productivity growth, and there was actually a fall in our index of the efficiency of the allocation of variable factors conditional on the existing distribution of fixed factors. Deregulation was, however, followed by a reallocation of capital towards more productive establishments (by a down sizing, often shutdown. of unproductive plants and by disproportionate growth of productive establishments) which more than offset the other factors' negative impacts on aggregate productivity
A framework for applied dynamic analysis in I.O. by Ariel Pakes( Book )

11 editions published in 2000 in English and held by 47 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper outlines a framework which computes and analyzes the equilibria from a class of dynamic games. The framework dates to Ericson and Pakes (1995), and allows for a finite number of heterogeneous firms, sequential investments with stochastic outcomes, and entry and exit. The equilibrium analyzed is a Markov Perfect equilibrium in the sense of Maskin and Tirole (1988). The simplest version of the framework is supported by a publically accessible computer program which computes equilibrium policies for user-specified primitives, and then analyzes the evolution of the industry from user-specified initial conditions. We begin by outlining the publically accessible framework. It allows for three types of competition in the spot market for current output (specified up to a set of parameter values set by the user), and has modules which allow the user to compare the industry structures generated by the Markov Perfect equilibrium to those that would be generated by a social planner and to those that would be generated by prefect collusion.' Next we review extensions that have been made to the simple framework. These were largely made by other authors who needed to enrich the framework so that it could be used to provide a realistic analysis of particular applied problems. The third section provides a simple way of evaluating the computational burden of the algorithm for a given set of primitives, and then shows that computational constraints are still binding in many applied situations. The last section reviews two computational algorithms designed to alleviate this computational constraint; one of which is based on functional form approximations and the other on learning techniques similar to those used in the artificial intelligence literature
A reconsideration of hedonic price indices with an application to PC's by Ariel Pakes( Book )

16 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 46 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper begins by comparing hedonic price indexes to the standard matched model index. The matched model index is formed as an average of the price changes of the goods in the sample in the base period that remain on the sampled stores' shelves in the comparison period. Since goods that do not remain on the shelves tend to be goods whose market value has fallen, the matched model index tends to select from the right tail of the distribution of price changes. The hedonic index corrects for the change in value of the observed characteristics of the goods that exit. Moreover we provide conditions which insure that the hedonic can be justified as an upper bound to the compensating variation (which is the standard rational for the matched model index when no goods exit). The paper then explains how the hedonic index can be constructed from exactly the same data that is currently used to construct the CPI. The matched model index can have lower variance than the hedonic when both are computed from this data, but in those cases we show that there is a hybrid hedonic index which has the selection correction properties of the hedonic and the variance reduction properties of the matched model index. We illustrate with a new study of price indexes for PC's. The hedonic index shows steep price declines which follow the pattern of technological change in this market. On average, the matched model indexes indicate no price fall at all and one commonly used matched model index is negatively correlated with the hedonic. We also consider alternative indexes. Of these the one that works well is a 'Paasche style' hedonic that we introduce. Its advantage is that since it does not require computation of the current period's hedonic function, it is easier to use when monthly timetables need to be met
Common sense and simplicity in empirical industrial organization by Ariel Pakes( Book )

15 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 41 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper is a revised version of a keynote address delivered at the inaugural International Industrial Organization Conference in Boston, April 2003. I argue that new econometric tools have facilitated the estimation of models with realistic theoretical underpinnings, and because of this, have made empirical I.O. much more useful. The tools solve computational problems thereby allowing us to make the relationship between the economic model and the estimating equations transparent. This, in turn, enables us to utilize the available data more effectively. It also facilitates robustness analysis and clarifies the assumptions needed to analyze the causes of past events and/or make predictions of the likely impacts of future policy or environmental changes. The paper provides examples illustrating the value of simulation for the estimation of demand systems and of semiparametrics for the estimation of entry models
Simple estimators for the parameters of discrete dynamic games (with entry/exit examples) by Ariel Pakes( Book )

14 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 38 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper considers the problem of estimating the distribution of payoffs in a discrete dynamic game, focusing on models where the goal is to learn about the distribution of firms' entry and exit costs. The idea is to begin with non parametric first stage estimates of entry and continuation values obtained by computing sample averages of the realized continuation values of entrants who do enter and incumbents who do continue. Under certain assumptions these values are linear functions of the parameters of the problem, and hence are not computationally burdensome to use. Attention is given to the small sample problem of estimation error in the non parametric estimates and this leads to a preference for use of particularly simple estimates of continuation values and moments
Automobile prices in market equilibrium by Steven Berry( Book )

2 editions published in 1993 in English and held by 36 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Empirical implications of alternative models of firm dynamics by Ariel Pakes( Book )

14 editions published between 1987 and 1990 in English and held by 34 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper considers two models for analyzing the dynamics of firm behavior that allow for heterogeneity among firms, idiosyncratic (or firm specific) sources of uncertainty, and discrete outcomes (exit and/or entry). Models with these characteristics are needed for the structural econometric analysis of several economic phenomena, including the behavior of capital markets when there are significant failure probabilities, and the analysis of productivity movements in industries with large amounts of entry and exit. In addition, these models provide a means of correcting for the self-section induced by liquidation decisions in empirical studies of firms responses to alternative policy and environmental changes. It is shown that the two models have different nonparametric implications - implications that depend only on basic behavioral assumptions and mild regularity conditions on the functional forms of interest (one distinction between them corresponds to the distinction between heterogeneity and an ergodic form of state-dependence; a form in which the effect of being in a state in a particular period erodes away as time from that period lapses). The nonparametric implications enable the construction of testing and selection correction procedures that are easy to implement (they do not require the computationally difficult, and functional-form specific, estimation algorithms that have been used to empirically analyze stochastic control models with discrete outcomes in the past). The paper concludes by checking for the implications of the two models on an eight-year panel of Wisconsin firms. We find one model to be consistent with the data for retail trade
Computing Markov Perfect Nash Equilibria : numerical implications of a dynamic differentiated product model by Ariel Pakes( Book )

7 editions published in 1992 in English and held by 20 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper provides an algorithm for computing Markov Perfect Nash Equilibria (Maskin and Tirole, 1988a and b) for dynamic models that allow for heterogeneity among firms and idiosyncratic (or firm specific) sources of uncertainty. It has two purposes. To illustrate the ability of such models to reproduce important aspects of reality, and to provide a tool which can be used for both descriptive and policy analysis in a framework rich enough to capture many of the features of firm level data sets (thereby enabling it to be integrated with the empirical detail in those data sets). We illustrate by computing the policy functions, and simulating the industry structures, generated by a class of dynamic differentiated product models in which the idiosyncratic uncertainty is due to the random outcomes of each firm's research process (we also allow for an autonomous aggregate demand process). The illustration focuses on comparing the effects of different regulatory and institutional arrangements on market structure and on welfare for one particular set of parameter values. The simulation results are of independent interest and can be read without delving into the technical detail of the computational algorithm The last part of the paper begins with an explicit consideration of the computational burden of the algorithm, and then introduces approximation techniques designed to make computation easier. This section provides some analytic results which dramatically reduce the computational burden of computing equilibria for industries in which a large number of firms are typically active
The value of patents as indicators of inventive activity by Zvi Griliches( Book )

5 editions published between 1986 and 1988 in English and held by 18 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper summarizes a number of studies which use patent data to examine different aspects of technological change. It describes our firm level data set construction effort; reports on the relationship between RLD expenditures and the level of patenting; analyzes the relationship between patents, R&D, and tire stock market value of firms; reports on the estimation of the value of patent rights based on European patent renewal data; and describes the use of patent data to estimate the importance of R&D spillovers. It concludes that patent data represent a valuable resource for the analysis of technological change. They can be used to study longer-run interfirm differences in inventive activity and as a substitute for R&D data where they are not available in the desired detail. It is possible also to use a firm's distribution of patenting by field to infer its position in "technological space" and use it in turn to study how R&D spills over from one firm to another. Moreover, patent renewal data, which are also becoming available in the U.S., allow one to construct more relevant "quality weighted" inventive "output" measures
Optimum contracts for research personnel, research employment, and the establishment of "rival" enterprises by Ariel Pakes( Book )

11 editions published between 1982 and 1984 in English and held by 16 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper considers the problem of hiring scientists for research and development projects when one takes explicit account of the fact that the scientist may be able to use the information acquired during the project in a rival enterprise. Management's problem is to determine an optimum labor policy for its project. The policy consists of an employment decision and a labor contract. Given optimum behavior, it is straightforward to analyze the effect of the potential for mobility of scientific personnel on project profitability and on research employment. We also formalize conditions under which one would expect to observe a scientist leaving his employer to set up (or join) a rival
Factor utilization in Indian manufacturing : a look at the World Bank Investment Climate Surveys data by Ana Margarida Fernandes( Book )

8 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 11 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

We use the World Bank Investment Climate Surveys data to analyze the employment of both labor and capital in Indian manufacturing. We focus on disparities among states in manufacturing employment patterns, and provide reduced form evidence of their relationship to both (i) institutional constraints, and (ii) productivity
Theory and empirical work on imperfectly competitive markets by Ariel Pakes( Book )

8 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 10 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper reviews recent methodological developments in the empirical analysis of imperfectly competitive markets highlighting outstanding problems. Some of these problems are econometric; e.g. the need for a deeper understanding of the small sample properties of our estimators. Most of the other problems relate to issues which have been a central part of ongoing research programs in economic theory for some time. We consider ways in which applied work can cope with these problems and, in so doing, also inform theory. The use of estimators based on moment inequalities opens up several possibilities in this regard and a detailed discussion of the assumptions used to rationalize these estimators is provided. An example, the analysis of contracts in buyer-seller networks, is used to highlight these points
An experimental component index for the CPI : from annual computer data to monthly data on other goods by Timothy Erickson( Book )

7 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 7 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Until recently the Consumer Price Index consisted solely of "matched model" component indexes. The latter are constructed by BLS personnel who visit stores and compare prices of goods with the same set of characteristics over successive periods. This procedure is subject to a selection bias. Goods that were not on the shelves in the second period were discarded and hence never contributed price comparisons. The discarded goods were disproportionately goods which were being obsoleted and had falling prices. Pakes (2003) provided an analytic framework for analyzing this selection effect and showed both that it could be partially corrected using a particular hedonic technique and that the correction for his personal computer example was substantial. The BLS staff has recently increased the rate at which they incorporate techniques to correct for selection effects in their component indexes. However recent work shows very little difference between hedonic and matched model indices for non computer components of the CPI. This paper explores why. We look carefully at the data on the component index for TVs and show that differences between the TV and computer markets imply that to obtain an effective selection correction we need to use a more general hedonic procedure than has been used to date. The computer market is special in having well defined cardinal measures of the major product characteristics. In markets where such measures are absent we may need to allow for selection on unmeasured, as well as measured, characteristics. We develop a hedonic selection correction that accounts for unmeasured characteristics, apply it to TVs, and show that it yields a much larger selection correction than the standard hedonic. In particular we find that matched model techniques underestimate the rate of price decline by over 20%
National Academy of Sciences colloquium : science, technology and the economy( Book )

2 editions published in 1996 in English and held by 2 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Hospital choices, hospital prices, and financial incentives to physicians by Katherine Ho( Book )

4 editions published in 2013 in English and held by 2 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

We estimate a preference function which rationalizes hospital referrals for privately-insured birth episodes in California. The function varies across insurers and is additively separable in: a hospital price paid by the insurer, the distance traveled, and plan and severity-specific hospital fixed effects (capturing various dimensions of hospital quality). We use an inequality estimator that allows for errors in price and detailed hospital-severity interactions and obtain markedly different results than those from a logit. The inequality estimator indicates that insurers with more capitated physicians are more responsive to hospital prices. Capitated plans are willing to send patients further to utilize similar-quality lower-priced hospitals; but the trade-off between quality and costs does not vary with capitation rates
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Alternative Names
Ariel Pakes amerikansk ekonom

Ariel Pakes amerikansk konom

Ariel Pakes Canadian American economist

Ariel Pakes israelisch-US-amerikanischer Wirtschaftswissenschaftler

Pakes, A.

English (205)