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Fri Mar 21 17:15:08 2014 UTClccn-n931093080.50Straining at the anchor the Argentine Currency Board and the search for macroeconomic stability, 1880-1935 /0.620.93Internal versus external convertibility and developing-country financial crises : lessons from the Argentine bank bailout of the 1930s /71522312Alan_M._Taylorn 931093083491956Taylor, A. M. 1964-Taylor, Alan, 1964-Taylor, Alan M.Taylor, Alan Michael 1964-nc-national bureau of economic researchNational Bureau of Economic Researchlccn-n79054037Williamson, Jeffrey G.1935-hnredtlccn-no97075936Della Paolera, Gerardo1959-edtlccn-n79139286National Bureau of Economic Researchothlccn-n82113436Obstfeld, Mauricelccn-no96042421O'Rourke, Kevin H.edtlccn-n2001106190ArgentinaCaja de Conversiónlccn-n86073605Hatton, T. J.edtlccn-n82274662Bordo, Michael D.edtlccn-n83053030Feenstra, Robert C.Taylor, Alan M.1964-HistoryConference proceedingsStudy guidesInternational economic relationsEconomic historyInternational financeArgentinaMonetary policyCurrency questionCurrency boardsArgentina.--Caja de ConversiónCapital marketInternational economic integrationGlobalization--Social aspectsInternational trade--Social aspectsGlobalization--Economic aspectsLatin AmericaInternational tradeBalance of paymentsDepressionsCapital movementsSaving and investment--Econometric modelsCapital market--Econometric modelsCapital movements--Econometric modelsEconomic policySoviet Union--Former Soviet republicsCapitalismEurope, EasternArbitrage--Econometric modelsMacroeconomicsEmigration and immigration--Economic aspects--Econometric modelsPrices--Econometric modelsCrowding out (Economics)--Econometric modelsFinancial crisesBank reservesDeveloping countriesBanks and bankingForeign exchange ratesBanks and banking--State supervisionCurrency convertibilityEconomicsGold standardBank failuresForeign exchangeEconomic policy--Econometric modelsGreat BritainCommercial policyTariffUnited StatesFinanceRecessionsGlobalizationInflation (Finance)196419911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201410572134911339.530982HG1464ocn490052740ocn799385808ocn806457934ocn804463356ocn767860769ocn743198313ocn815776598ocn799909295ocn753860218ocn808591583ocn838886085135114ocn212767332file20010.50Della Paolera, GerardoStraining at the anchor the Argentine Currency Board and the search for macroeconomic stability, 1880-1935History"The "Argentine disappointment" - why Argentina persistently failed to achieve sustained economic stability during the twentieth century - is an issue that has mystified scholars for decades. In Straining at the Anchor, Gerardo della Paolera and Alan M. Taylor provide many of the missing links that help explain this important historical episode. Written chronologically, this book follows the various fluctuations of the Argentine economy from its postrevolutionary volatility to a period of unprecedented prosperity to a dramatic decline from which the country has never fully recovered+-+3100911775324110510ocn156908835file20070.50The new comparative economic history essays in honor of Jeffrey G. WilliamsonEssays by internationally prominent economists examine long run cross-country economic trends from the perspective of New Comparative Economic History, an approach pioneered by Harvard economist Jeffrey G. Williamson+-+761835717595026ocn050767958file20030.59Bordo, Michael DGlobalization in historical perspectiveConference proceedingsAs awareness of the process of globalization grows and the study of its effects becomes increasingly important to governments and businesses (as well as to a sizable opposition), the need for historical understanding also increases. Despite the importance of the topic, few attempts have been made to present a long-term economic analysis of the phenomenon, one that frames the issue by examining its place in the long history of international integration. This volume collects eleven papers doing exactly that and more. The first group of essays explores how the process of globalization can be meas+-+234015177588129ocn070001923file20030.59Obstfeld, MauriceGlobal capital markets integration, crisis, and growthHistoryShows that the recent globalization can be seen, in part, as the resumption of a liberal world order that had previously been established in the years 1880 1914, but also points out that much is different in terms of its causes and consequences+-+12688167055438ocn039671655book19980.66Latin America and the world economy since 1800"The Latin American economies, once among the most productive in the world, were already falling behind the advancing economies of the North Atlantic by 1800. A century later, nearly all were "underdeveloped." In the twentieth century, most grew respectably but none managed to catch up. What explains these trends? How important were Latin America's changing relations with the evolving global economy? What hypotheses should be rejected or modified?" "The fifteen essays in this volume apply the methods of the New Economic History to the history of the Latin American economies since 1800. The authors combine the historian's sensitivity to context and contingency with modern or "neoclassical" economic theory and quantitative methods."--Jacket+-+763760921533528ocn176997866book20030.56Feenstra, Robert CInternational economicsStudy guidesThe international economy has seen a great deal of change over recent years, and there is much talk in the media of the impact of emerging markets such as India and China. Giving a new perspective on International Economics in the age of globalisation, this engaging text addresses economics with a whole-world perspective, including developing countries and puts emphasis on empirical study. With its many examples pulled from today's headlines, Feenstra/Taylor will be the ideal book for instructors looking for a fresh, up-to-date approach to international economics. KEY FEATURES * Offers a better fit to modern IE modules -- reflects the current emphasis on the role of developing economies * Takes a whole world perspective and includes developing countries * Includes empirical evidence throughout -- helps students understand the models * Includes reference to popular news stories -- engaging for students+-+983742162528710ocn052092113book20030.76A new economic history of Argentina"Scholars, policymakers, and laymen alike have been struck by the Argentine puzzle: why has this country of recent European settlement and rich endowments stagnated economically for so long? The answers will not arrive from an examination of the last week's newspapers, the last year's policy choices, or the last decade's economic trends. A longer view is needed, and these essays present a state-of-the-art examination of the development record by today's leading specialists in Argentine economic history. The authors expose the historic dimension of the Argentine puzzle - and, it is hoped, provide some of the answers."--Jacket+-+02977367051648ocn029429086book19940.81Schipke, AlfredThe Economics of transformation : theory and practice in the new market economiesThe New Market Economies of Eastern Europe have been experiencing fundamental systemic changes over recent years. Nevertheless, the field of Economic Transformation is still in its infancy and some important policy questions have been neglected altogether. "The Economics of Transformation" addresses these deficiencies with coverage of theoretical and empirical issues and presents new results which challenge conventional wisdom. The book covers traditional topics such as price liberalization, privatization, and the reform of trade and financial markets. Political economy issues inform the discussion oftransformation and the question of who is likely to lose. It is a valuable source for both academics and policymakers14417ocn698377901book20080.66Feenstra, Robert CInternational trade+-+K54157479611721ocn037216046book19970.86Obstfeld, MauriceNonlinear aspects of goods-market arbitrage and adjustment : Heckscher's commodity points revisitedWe propose that analysis of purchasing power parity (PPP) and the law of one price (LOOP) should explicitly take into account the possibility of commodity points' thresholds delineating a region of no central tendency among relative prices, possibly due to lack of perfect arbitrage in the presence of transaction costs and uncertainty. More than eighty years ago, Heckscher stressed the importance of such incomplete arbitrage in the empirical application of PPP. We devise an econometric method to identify commodity points. Price adjustment is treated as a nonlinear process, and a threshold autoregression (TAR) offers a parsimonious specification within which both thresholds and adjustment speeds are estimated by maximum likelihood methods. Our model performs well using post-1980 data reasonable: adjustment outside the thresholds might imply half-lives of price deviations measured in months rather than years and the thresholds correspond to popular rough estimates as to the order of magnitude of actual transport costs. The estimated commodity points appear to be positively related to objective measures of market segmentation, notably nominal exchange rate volatility11619ocn720831396book20070.66Feenstra, Robert CInternational macroeconomics+-+485697479611518ocn036732291book19970.84Obstfeld, MauriceThe Great Depression as a watershed : international capital mobility over the long runHistoryThis paper surveys the evolution of international capital mobility since the late nineteenth century. We begin with an overview of empirical evidence on the fall and rise of integration in the global capital market. A discussion of institutional developments focuses on the use of capital controls and the pursuit of domestic macroeconomic policy objectives in the context of changing monetary regimes. A fundamental macroeconomic policy trilemma has forced policymakers to trade off among conflicting goals. The natural implication of the trilemma is that capital mobility has prevailed and expanded under circumstances of widespread political support either for an exchange-rate subordinated monetary policy regime (e.g., the gold standard), or for a monetary regime geared mainly toward domestic objectives at the expense of exchange-rate stability (e.g., the recent float). Through its effect on popular attitudes toward both the gold standard and the legitimate scope for government macroeconomic intervention, the Great Depression emerges as the key turning point in the recent history of international capital markets9913ocn040535717book19980.88Della Paolera, GerardoEconomic recovery from the Argentine great depression : institutions, expectations and the change of macroeconomic regimeThis work explores how Argentina overcame the Great Depression and asks whether active macroeconomic interventions made any contribution to the recovery. In particular, we study Argentine macroeconomic policy as it deviated from gold-standard orthodoxy after the final suspension of convertibility in 1929. As elsewhere, fiscal policy in Argentina was conservative, and had little power to smooth output. Monetary policy became heterodox after 1929. The first and most important stage of institutional change took place with the switch from a metallic monetary regime to a fiduciary regime in 1931; the Caja de Conversion (Conversion Office, a currency board) began rediscounting as a means to sterilize gold outflows and avoid deflationary pressures, thus breaking from orthodox game. and were not enough to fully offset the incipient monetary contractions: the recovery derived from changes in beliefs and expectations surrounding the shift in the monetary and exchange-rate regime, and the delinking of gold flows and the money base. Agents perceived a new regime, as shown by the path of consumption, investment, and estimated ex ante real interest rates: the predated a later, and supposedly more significant, stage of institutional reform, namely the creation of the central bank in 1935. Still, the extent of intervention was weak, and insufficient to fully offset external shocks to prices and money. Argentine macropolicy was heterodox in terms of the change of regime, but still conservative in terms of the tentative scope of the measures taken9313ocn051276951book20020.90Obstfeld, MauriceSovereign risk, credibility and the gold standard : 1870-1913 versus 1925-31What determines sovereign risk? We study the London bondmarket from the 1870s to the 1930s. Our findings support conventional wisdom concerning the low credibility of the interwar gold standard. Before 1914 gold standard adherence effectively signalled credibility and shaved 40 to 60 basis points from country borrowing spreads. In the 1920s, however, simply resuming prewar gold parities was insufficient to secure such benefits. Countries that devalued before resumption were treated favorably, and markets scrutinized other signals. Public debt and British Empire membership were important determinants of spreads after World War One, but not before9216ocn055092280book20020.88Obstfeld, MauriceThe trilemma in history : tradeoffs among exchange rates, monetary policies, and capital mobility"The exchange-rate regime is often seen as constrained by the monetary policy trilemma, which imposes a stark tradeoff among exchange stability, monetary independence, and capital market openness. Yet the trilemma has not gone without challenge. Some (e.g., Calvo and Reinhart 2001, 2002) argue that under the modern float there could be limited monetary autonomy. Others (e.g., Bordo and Flandreau 2003), that even under the classical gold standard domestic monetary autonomy was considerable. This paper studies the coherence of international interest rates over more than 130 years. The constraints implied by the trilemma are largely borne out by history"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site9110ocn035698661book19950.90Taylor, Alan MInternational capital mobility in history : the saving-investment relationshipHistoryEconomic historians have been concerned with the evolution of international capital markets over the long run, but empirical testing of market integration has been limited. This paper augments the literature by investigating long- and short-run criteria for capital mobility using time-series and cross-section analysis of saving-investment correlation for twelve countries since 1850. The results present a nuanced picture of capital market evolution. The sample shows considerable cross-country heterogeneity. Broadly speaking, the inter-war period, and especially the Great Depression, emerge as an era of diminishing capital mobility, and only recently can we observe a tentative return to the degree of capital mobility witnessed during the late nineteenth century9014ocn052279897book20030.90Eichengreen, Barry JThe monetary consequences of a free trade area of the AmericasHow will free trade affect monetary policy and exchange rate regime choices in the Americas? While the European Union illustrates how the creation of an integrated market in goods and services can enhance monetary cooperation and integration, it is not clear that Europe's experience translates to Latin America, where the political circumstances are different. We try to understand whether the monetary consequences of existing regional trade agreements, including but not limited to the European Union, mainly reflect spillovers from trade integration, or whether observed outcomes have been mainly about politics. Our results incline us toward the latter interpretation, leaving us pessimistic about the basis for deeper monetary cooperation. If exchange rate volatility is to be tamed, then the more widespread adoption of inflation targeting, which we find to be associated with a significant reduction in bilateral exchange rate volatility, may be the most promising path9013ocn042759462book19990.93Della Paolera, GerardoInternal versus external convertibility and developing-country financial crises : lessons from the Argentine bank bailout of the 1930sHistoryArgentina's money and banking system was hit hard by the Great Depression. The banking sector was awash with bad assets that built up in the 1920's. Gold convertibility was suspended in December 1929, even before the crisis seriously damaged the core economies. Commonly, these events are seen as being driven by external real shocks associated with the World Depression, despite the puzzle of the timing. We argue for an alternative, or complementary, explanation of the crisis that focuses on the inside-outside money relationship in a system of fractional-reserve banking and gold-standard rules. This internal explanation for the crisis involves no timing puzzle. The tension between internal and external convertibility can be felt when banks fall into bad times, and an internal drain can feed an external drain. Such was the case after financial fragility appeared in the 1914-27 suspension. Resumption in 1928 was probably unsustainable due to the problems of the financial system, and a dynamic model illustrates the point well. The resolution of the crisis required lender-of-last-resort actions by the state, discharged at first by the state bank issuing rediscounts to private banks. When the state bank became insolvent, the currency board started bailing out the system using high-powered money. Thus came about the demise of the currency board and the creation of a central bank in 1935, an institution that had no pretense of a nominal- anchor commitment device and no ceiling on lender-of-last-resort actions-innovations with painful long-run consequences for inflation performance and financial-sector health. As one of its first substantive actions, the central bank engineered a bailout of the banking system at a massive social cost. The parallels with recent developing-country crises are remarkable, and the implications for the institutional design of monetary and banking systems are considered8910ocn030488585book19940.93Taylor, Alan MConvergence in the age of mass migrationHistoryBetween 1870 and 1913, economic convergence among present OECD members (or even a wider sample of countries) was dramatic, about as dramatic as it has been over the past century and a half. The convergence can be documented in GDP per worker-hour, GDP per capita and in real wages. What were the sources of the convergence? One prime candidate is mass migration. In the absence of quotas, this was a period of open international migration, and the numbers who elected to move were enormous. If international migration is ever to play a role in contributing to convergence, the pre-quota period surely should be it. This paper offers some estimates which suggest that migration could account for very large shares of the convergence in GDP per worker and real wages, though a much smaller share in GDP per capita. One might conclude, therefore, that the interwar cessation of convergence could be partially explained by the imposition of quotas and other barriers to migration. The paper concludes with caution as it enumerates the possible offsets to the mass migration impact which our partial equilibrium analysis ignores, and with the plea that convergence models pay more attention to open-economy forces899ocn031474262book19940.90Taylor, Alan MDomestic saving and international capital flows reconsideredA long literature since Feldstein and Horioka's seminal contribution documents the strong correlation of domestic saving and investment rates since the 1960s. According to conventional wisdom, the result provides evidence of international capital market imperfections. The macroeconomic theory of small open economies prescribes a relationship between the composition of aggregate demand and its relative price structure, a linkage hitherto ignored in the saving-investment literature. Theory and evidence also suggest a role for growth and demographic effects, well known in previous studies. If one controls for these effects, the standard correlation of saving and investment disappears. International capital markets may be better integrated than once thought, and the former correlations may have been spurious. The pattern of domestic investment rates is better explained by domestic price distortions and other variables than by domestic saving constraints+-+3100911775324+-+3100911775324Fri Mar 21 16:13:11 EDT 2014batch39213