WorldCat Identities

Talvi, Ernesto

Overview
Works: 33 works in 122 publications in 2 languages and 599 library holdings
Genres: Case studies 
Roles: Author
Classifications: HB1, 336.3
Publication Timeline
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Most widely held works by Ernesto Talvi
Como armar el rompecabezas fiscal? : nuevos indicadores de sostenibilibad by Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (Washington)( Book )

8 editions published in 2000 in Spanish and English and held by 109 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Institutional arrangements and fiscal performance : the Latin American experience by Ernesto Stein( Book )

16 editions published in 1998 in English and held by 76 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper explores the links between institutional arrangements and fiscal performance in Latin America. We consider four measures of fiscal performance, namely expenditures, the size of fiscal deficits and debt, and the response of fiscal policy to business fluctuations; and two institutional dimensions, namely, electoral systems and budgetary processes. We find evidence that electoral systems characterized by a large degree of proportionality large district magnitude, tend to have larger governments, larger deficits and a more procyclical response to the business cycle. We also find that more transparent and hierarchical budgetary procedures lead to lower deficits and debt. Contrary to the findings of Hallerberg and von Hagen for European countries, we find no evidence that centralized budgetary arrangements neutralize the potentially adverse impact on fiscal deficits of a larger degree of proportionality of the electoral system
Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy by Ernesto Talvi( Book )

13 editions published between 1999 and 2000 in English and held by 55 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Abstract: Based on a sample of 56 countries, we find that while fiscal policy in the G-7 countries appears to be broadly consistent with Barro's tax smoothing proposition, in developing countries government spending and taxes are highly procyclical (i.e., government spending rises and taxes fall during expansions, while the reverse is true in recessions). To explain this puzzle, we develop an optimal fiscal policy model in which running budget surpluses is costly because they create pressures to increase public spending. Given this distortion, a government that faces large (and perfectly anticipated) fluctuations in the tax base will find it optimal to run a procyclical fiscal policy. We argue that the differences in fiscal policy between the G-7 countries and developing countries can be traced back to the fact that the tax base is much more volatile in developing countries than in the G-7 countries
Phoenix miracles in emerging markets : recovering without credit from systemic financial crises by Guillermo A Calvo( Book )

18 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 51 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Using a sample of emerging markets that are integrated into global bond markets, we analyse the collapse and recovery phase of output collapses that coincide with systemic sudden stops, defined as periods of skyrocketing aggregate bond spreads and large capital flow reversals. Our findings indicate the presence of a very similar pattern across different episodes: output recovers with virtually no recovery in either domestic or foreign credit, a phenomenon that we call Phoenix Miracle, where output "rises from its ashes", suggesting that firms go through a process of financial engineering to restore liquidity outside the formal credit markets. Moreover, we show that the US Great Depression could be catalogued as a Phoenix Miracle. However, in contrast to the US Great Depression, EM output collapses occur in a context of accelerating price inflation and falling real wages, casting doubts on price deflation and nominal wage rigidity as key elements in explaining output collapse, and suggesting that financial factors are prominent for understanding these collapses
Sudden stops, the real exchange rate, and fiscal sustainability : Argentina's lessons by Guillermo A Calvo( Book )

11 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 43 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

We offer an alternative explanation for the fall of Argentina's Convertibility Program based on the country's vulnerability to Sudden Stops in capital flows. Sudden Stops are typically accompanied by a substantial increase in the real exchange rate that breaks havoc in countries that are heavily dollarized in their liabilities, turning otherwise sustainable fiscal and corporate sector positions into unsustainable ones. In particular, we stress that the required change in relative prices is larger the more closed an economy is in terms of its supply of tradable goods. By contrasting Argentina's performance relative to other Latin American countries that were also subject to the Sudden Stop triggered by the Russian crisis of 1998, we identify key vulnerability indicators that separated Argentina from its piers. We also provide an explanation for the political maelstrom that ensued after the Sudden Stop, based on a War of Attrition argument related to the wealth redistribution conflict triggered by the Sudden Stop and fiscal collapse. This framework also provides elements to rationalize the banking crisis that accompanied the fall of Convertibility
Sudden stop, financial factors and economic collapse in Latin America : learning from Argentina and Chile by Guillermo A Calvo( Book )

10 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 31 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper shows that the Russian 1998 crisis had a big impact on capital flows to Emerging Market Economies, EMs, especially in Latin America, and that the impact of the Russian shock differs quite markedly across EMs. To illustrate this statement, we compare the polar cases of Chile and Argentina. While Chile exhibited a significant economic slowdown after August 1998, it did not suffer the excruciating collapse suffered by Argentina, where even the payments system came to a full stop. We attribute their difference to the fact that Chile is more open to trade than Argentina, and that it appears to suffer much less from balance-sheet currency-denomination mismatch that was rampant in Argentina before the 2002 crisis (due to large domestic liability dollarization). The paper is essentially descriptive but is in line with and, thus, complements econometric studies like Calvo, Izquierdo and Mejia (NBER Working Paper 10520). The final section addresses policy issues in light of the paper's findings and conjectures
Fiscal policy and the business cycle associated with exchange rate-based stabilizations : evidence from Uruguay's 1978 and 1991 programs by Ernesto Talvi( Book )

7 editions published in 1995 in English and held by 12 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Exchange rate-based stabilization with endogenous fiscal response by Ernesto Talvi( Book )

5 editions published between 1995 and 1996 in English and held by 9 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

One region, two speeds? : Challenges of the new global economic order for Latin America and the Caribbean( Book )

2 editions published in 2011 in English and held by 5 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The aftermath of the global financial crisis has reshaped world growth and demand patterns, leading to a two-speed recovery, with slow growth in industrial countries and fast growth in emerging markets. This new global scenario is defining a constellation of global macroeconomic conditions that has very different implications for subsets of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. The report conveys three key messages: first, in this new global economic environment, key structural characteristics of Latin American and Caribbean countries are defining two quite different regional clusters in terms of opportunities and challenges ahead. Second, substantial changes in trade and capital flow patterns, as well as in the international financial architecture, are already taking place and will impact the regional clusters in different ways. Third, economic policy design will have to accommodate these differences in order to ensure widespread and stable growth
Saving behavior in Latin America : overview and policy issues by M Gavin( Book )

4 editions published in 1997 in English and held by 4 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The paper reviews and contributes to the policy debate surrounding saving in Latin America presenting an alternative perspective on the relationship between saving and growth, saving and inflation stabilization and structural reform, and saving and capital flows, drawing on the experience of Latin America and East Asia
Fiscal policy sustainability : a basic framework by Ernesto Talvi( Book )

3 editions published between 1998 and 1999 in English and held by 3 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

All that glitters may not be gold : assessing Latin America's recent macroeconomic performance( Book )

1 edition published in 2008 in English and held by 3 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Booms and busts in Latin America : the role of external factors( )

1 edition published in 2008 in English and held by 2 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper analyzes the relevance of external factors in average quarterly GDP growth for 1990-2006 in the seven largest Latin American countries (LAC7). Modeling the relationship between LAC7 GDP and several external factors, it is found that those factors account for a significant share of variance in LAC7 GDP growth, and that external shocks produce significant responses. Likewise, a significant share of recent LAC7 growth performance can be explained by an external factor "tailwind". Also evaluated is the impact of deterioration in external financial conditions. Finally, the relevance of these findings for policy evaluation is emphasized. Growth performance, the strength or weakness of macroeconomic fundamentals and the impact of domestic macro and micro policies on growth can only be properly appraised by first filtering out the effects of external factors. -- External Factors ; Business Cycle ; Growth ; Sudden Stops ; Terms of Trade ; Latin America
Phoenix miracles in emerging markets : recovering without credit from systemic financial crises( )

1 edition published in 2006 in English and held by 2 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Using a sample of emerging markets that are integrated into global bond markets, we analyze the collapse and recovery phase of output collapses that coincide with systemic sudden stops, defined as periods of skyrocketing aggregate bond spreads and large capital flow reversals. Our findings indicate the presence of a very similar pattern across different episodes: output recovers with virtually no recovery in either domestic or foreign credit, a phenomenon that we call a Phoenix Miracle, where output "rises from its ashes", suggesting that firms go through a process of financial engineering to restore liquidity outside formal credit markets. Moreover, we show that the U.S. Great Depression could be catalogued as a Phoenix Miracle. However, in contrast to the U.S. Great Depression, EM output collapses occur in a context of accelerating price inflation and falling real wages, casting doubt on price deflation and nominal wage rigidity as key elements in explaining output collapse, and suggesting that financial factors figure prominently in these collapses. -- Output collapse ; systemic crises ; Great Depression ; Balance of Payments crisis ; Sudden Stop ; capital flows ; Phoenix Miracle ; credit crunch
Sudden stops, the real exchange rate and fiscal sustainability : Argentina's lessons( )

1 edition published in 2002 in English and held by 2 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Saving growth and macroeconomic vulnerability by M Gavin( )

1 edition published in 1997 in English and held by 1 WorldCat member library worldwide

Monetary and fiscal policies in a sudden stop : is tighter brighter?( )

1 edition published in 2007 in English and held by 1 WorldCat member library worldwide

El mercado de valores en el Uruguay by Ernesto Talvi( Book )

1 edition published in 1992 in Spanish and held by 1 WorldCat member library worldwide

Policy trade-offs for unprecedented times confronting the global crisis in Latin America and the Caribbean( )

3 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 0 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This report was prepared for the Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors of the Inter-American Development Bank held in Medellín, Colombia, in March, 2009. A complementary report, Social and Labor Market Policies for Tumultuous Times: Confronting the Global Crisis in Latin America and the Caribbean, was also prepared by the staff of the Inter-American Development Bank for the same event. Together, these two reports seek to contribute to an understanding of the macroeconomic and social implications of the current crisis on the Latin American and Caribbean region (henceforth "the region"), and the options and risks faced by policymakers in these two critical and inter-related areas
Dilemas de política económica en tiempos sin precedentes by Alejandro Izquierdo( )

2 editions published in 2009 in Spanish and held by 0 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

 
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Languages
English (99)

Spanish (10)