WorldCat Identities

Di Giovanni, Julian

Overview
Works: 40 works in 152 publications in 2 languages and 1,487 library holdings
Classifications: HG3823, 382
Publication Timeline
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Publications by  Julian Di Giovanni Publications by Julian Di Giovanni
Most widely held works by Julian Di Giovanni
Putting the parts together trade, vertical linkages, and business cycle comovement by Julian Di Giovanni ( )
9 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 220 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Countries that trade more with each other exhibit higher business cycle correlation. This paper examines the mechanisms underlying this relationship using a large cross-country industry-level panel dataset of manufacturing production and trade. We show that sector pairs that experience more bilateral trade exhibit stronger comovement. Vertical linkages in production are an important explanation behind this effect: bilateral international trade increases comovement significantly more in cross-border industry pairs that use each other as intermediate inputs. Our estimates imply that these vertical production linkages account for some 30% of the total impact of bilateral trade on the business cycle correlation
Remoteness and real exchange rate volatility by Claudio Bravo-Ortega ( )
8 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 218 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper examines the impact of trade costs on real exchange rate volatility. The channel is examined by constructing a two-country Ricardian model of trade, based on the work of Dornbusch, Fischer, and Samuelson (1977), which shows that higher trade costs result in a larger nontradable sector. This, in turn, leads to higher real exchange rate volatility. We provide empirical evidence supporting the channel
Trade openness and volatility by Julian Di Giovanni ( )
10 editions published between 2006 and 2008 in English and held by 213 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper examines the mechanisms through which output volatility is related to trade openness using an industry-level panel dataset of manufacturing production and trade. The main results are threefold. First, sectors more open to international trade are more volatile. Second, trade is accompanied by increased specialization. Third, sectors that are more open are less correlated with the rest of the economy. The point estimates indicate that each of the three effects has an appreciable impact on aggregate volatility. Added together they imply that the relationship between trade openness and overall volatility is positive and economically significant
Trade costs and real exchange rate volatility the role of Ricardian comparative advantage by Claudio Bravo-Ortega ( )
7 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 211 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper examines the impact of trade costs on real exchange rate volatility. We incorporate a multi-country Ricardian model of trade, based on the work of Eaton and Kortum (2002), into a macroeconomic model to show how bilateral real exchange rate volatility depends on relative technological differences and trade costs. These differences highlight a new channel, in which the similarity of a pair of countries' set of suppliers of traded goods affects bilateral exchange rate volatility. We then test the importance of this channel using a large panel of cross-country data over 1970-97, and find strong evidence supporting the channel
A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon by Julian Di Giovanni ( )
8 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 187 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper applies a simple probabilistic approach to debt sustainability analysis to the case of Lebanon. The paper derives "fan charts" to depict the probability distribution of the government debt to GDP ratio under a medium-term adjustment scenario, as a result of shocks to GDP growth and interest rates. The distribution of shocks is derived from the past shocks to these variables and the related variance covariance. Because we are interested in assessing the sustainability of a particular policy scenario, we do not consider independent fiscal policy shocks or the endogenous policy response to shocks
The impact of foreign interest rates on the economy the role of the exchange rate regime by Julian Di Giovanni ( )
13 editions published between 2006 and 2007 in English and held by 62 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
It is often argued that many economies are affected by conditions in foreign countries. This paper explores the connection between interest rates in major industrial countries and annual real output growth in other countries. The results show that high foreign interest rates have a contractionary effect on annual real GDP growth in the domestic economy, but that this effect is centered on countries with fixed exchange rates. The paper then examines the potential channels through which major-country interest rates affect other economies. The effect of foreign interest rates on domestic interest rates is the most likely channel when compared with other possibilities, such as a trade effect
The Global Welfare Impact of China by Julian Di Giovanni ( )
11 editions published between 2012 and 2013 in English and held by 44 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of China's trade integration and technological change in a quantitative Ricardian-Heckscher-Ohlin model implemented on 75 countries. We simulate two alternative productivity growth scenarios: a ""balanced"" one in which China's productivity grows at the same rate in each sector, and an ""unbalanced"" one in which China's comparative disadvantage sectors catch up disproportionately faster to the world productivity frontier. Contrary to a well-known conjecture (Samuelson, 2004), the large majority of countries in the sample, including the developed
Firm entry, trade, and welfare in Zipf's world by Julian Di Giovanni ( )
6 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 37 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Firm size follows Zipf's Law, a very fat-tailed distribution that implies a few large firms account for a disproportionate share of overall economic activity. This distribution of firm size is crucial for evaluating the welfare impact of economic policies such as barriers to entry or trade liberalization. Using a multi-country model of production and trade calibrated to the observed distribution of firm size, we show that the welfare impact of high entry costs is small. In the sample of the largest 50 economies in the world, a reduction in entry costs all the way to the U.S. level leads to an average increase in welfare of only 3.25%. In addition, when the firm size distribution follows Zipf's Law, the welfare impact of the extensive margin of trade -- newly imported goods -- is negligible. The extensive margin of imports accounts for only about 5.2% of the total gains from a 10% reduction in trade barriers in our model. This is because under Zipf's Law, the large, infra-marginal firms have a far greater welfare impact than the much smaller firms that comprise the extensive margin in these policy experiments. The distribution of firm size matters for these results: in a counterfactual model economy that does not exhibit Zipf's Law the gains from a reduction in fixed entry barriers are an order of magnitude larger, while the gains from a reduction in variable trade costs are an order of magnitude smaller
The risk content of exports a portfolio view of international trade by Julian Di Giovanni ( )
6 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 37 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
It has been suggested that countries which export in especially risky sectors will experience higher output volatility. This paper develops a measure of the riskiness of a country's pattern of export specialization, and illustrates its features across countries and over time. The exercise reveals large cross-country differences in the risk content of exports. This measure is strongly correlated with terms-of-trade and output volatility, but does not exhibit a close relationship to the level of income, overall trade openness, or other country characteristics. We then propose an explanation for what determines the risk content of exports, based on the theoretical literature exemplified by Turnovsky (1974). Countries with comparative advantage in the safe sectors or strong enough comparative advantage in the risky sectors will specialize, whereas countries whose comparative advantage in the risky sectors is not too strong will diversify their export structure to insure against export income risk. We use both non-parametric and parametric techniques to demonstrate that these theoretical predictions are strongly supported by the data
Country size, international trade, and aggregate fluctuations in granular economies by Julian Di Giovanni ( )
6 editions published in 2011 in English and held by 33 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper proposes a new mechanism by which country size and international trade affect macroeconomic volatility. We study a multi-country, multi-sector model with heterogeneous firms that are subject to idiosyncratic firm-specific shocks. When the distribution of firm sizes follows a power law with an exponent close to -1, the idiosyncratic shocks to large firms have an impact on aggregate output volatility. We explore the quantitative properties of the model calibrated to data for the 50 largest economies in the world. Smaller countries have fewer firms, and thus higher volatility. The model performs well in matching this pattern both qualitatively and quantitatively: the rate at which macroeconomic volatility decreases in country size in the model is very close to what is found in the data. Opening to trade increases the importance of large firms to the economy, thus raising macroeconomic volatility. Our simulation exercise shows that the contribution of trade to aggregate fluctuations depends strongly on country size: in the largest economies in the world, such as the U.S. or Japan, international trade increases volatility by only 1.5-3.5%. By contrast, trade increases aggregate volatility by some 15-20% in a small open economy, such as Denmark or Romania
Firms, destinations, and aggregate fluctuations by Julian Di Giovanni ( )
8 editions published between 2012 and 2014 in English and held by 32 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper uses a database covering the universe of French firms for the period 1990--2007 to provide a forensic account of the role of individual firms in generating aggregate fluctuations. We set up a simple multi-sector model of heterogeneous firms selling to multiple markets to motivate a theoretically-founded decomposition of firms' annual sales growth rate into different components. We find that the firm-specific component contributes substantially to aggregate sales volatility, mattering about as much as the components capturing shocks that are common across firms within a sector or country. We then decompose the firm-specific component to provide evidence on two mechanisms that generate aggregate fluctuations from microeconomic shocks highlighted in the recent literature: (i) when the firm size distribution is fat-tailed, idiosyncratic shocks to large firms directly contribute to aggregate fluctuations; and (ii) aggregate fluctuations can arise from idiosyncratic shocks due to input-output linkages across the economy. Firm linkages are approximately three times as important as the direct effect of firm shocks in driving aggregate fluctuations
A global view of cross-border migration by Julian Di Giovanni ( )
9 editions published between 2012 and 2014 in English and German and held by 29 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of observed levels of migration using a quantitative multi-sector model of the world economy calibrated to aggregate and firm-level data. Our framework features cross-country labor productivity differences, international trade, remittances, and a heterogeneous workforce. We compare welfare under the observed levels of migration to a no-migration counterfactual. In the long run, natives in countries that received a lot of migration -- such as Canada or Australia -- are better off due to greater product variety available in consumption and as intermediate inputs. In the short run the impact of migration on average welfare in these countries is close to zero, while the skilled and unskilled natives tend to experience welfare changes of opposite signs. The remaining natives in countries with large emigration flows -- such as Jamaica or El Salvador -- are also better off due to migration, but for a different reason: remittances. The welfare impact of observed levels of migration is substantial, at about 5 to 10% for the main receiving countries and about 10% in countries with large incoming remittances. Our results are robust to accounting for imperfect transferability of skills, selection into migration, and imperfect substitution between natives and immigrants
Power laws in firm size and openness to trade measurement and implications by Julian Di Giovanni ( Book )
9 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 29 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Existing estimates of power laws in firm size typically ignore the impact of international trade. Using a simple theoretical framework, we show that international trade systematically affects the distribution of firm size: the power law exponent among exporting firms should be strictly lower in absolute value than the power law exponent among non-exporting rms. We use a dataset of French firms to demonstrate that this prediction is strongly supported by the data. While estimates of power law exponents have been used to pin down parameters in theoretical and quantitative models, our analysis implies that the existing estimates are systematically lower than the true values. We propose two simple ways of estimating power law parameters that take explicit account of exporting behavior
Following Germany's lead using international monetary linkages to identify the effect of monetary policy on the economy by Julian Di Giovanni ( )
7 editions published between 2004 and 2005 in English and held by 28 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Forward-looking behavior on the part of the monetary authority leads least squares estimates to understate the true growth consequences of monetary policy interventions. We present instrumental variables estimates of the impact of interest rates on real output growth for several European countries, using German interest rates as the instrument. We show that the difference between least squares and instrumental variables estimates provides bounds for the degree of endogeneity in monetary policy. The results confirm a considerable downward bias of estimates that do not account for potential forward-looking monetary policy decisions. The bias is higher for countries whose monetary policy was more independent of Germany
The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology by Steven Phillips ( )
2 editions published in 2014 in English and held by 23 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology has been developed by the IMF's Research Department as a successor to the CGER methodology for assessing current accounts and exchange rates in a multilaterally consistent manner. Compared to other approaches, EBA emphasizes distinguishing between the positive empirical analysis and the normative assessment of current accounts and exchange rates, and highlights the roles of policies and policy distortions. This paper provides a comprehensive description and discussion of the 2013 version (?2.0?) of the EBA methodology, including areas for its f
Putting the Parts Together by Andrei A Levchenko ( )
2 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 15 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Countries that trade more with each other exhibit higher business cycle correlation. This paper examines the mechanisms underlying this relationship using a large cross-country industry-level panel dataset of manufacturing production and trade. We show that sector pairs that experience more bilateral trade exhibit stronger comovement. Vertical linkages in production are an important explanation behind this effect: bilateral international trade increases comovement significantly more in cross-border industry pairs that use each other as intermediate inputs. Our estimates imply that these vertic
Reaping the benefits of financial globalization by Giovanni Dell'Ariccia ( )
3 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 14 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Financial globalization has increased dramatically over the past three decades, particularly for advanced economies, while emerging market and developing countries experienced more moderate increases. Divergences across countries stem from different capital control regimes, and factors such as institutional quality and domestic financial development. Although, in principle, financial globalization should enhance international risk sharing, reduce macroeconomic volatility, and foster economic growth, in practice its effects are less clear-cut. This paper envisages a gradual and orderly sequenci
Power Laws in Firm Size and Openness to Trade by Andrei A Levchenko ( )
1 edition published in 2010 in English and held by 11 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Existing estimates of power laws in firm size typically ignore the impact of international trade. Using a simple theoretical framework, we show that international trade systematically affects the distribution of firm size: the power law exponent among exporting firms should be strictly lower in absolute value than the power law exponent among non-exporting rms. We use a dataset of French firms to demonstrate that this prediction is strongly supported by the data. While estimates of power law exponents have been used to pin down parameters in theoretical and quantitative models, our analysis im
What drives capital flows? : the case of cross-border M & A activity and financial deepening by Julian Di Giovanni ( Book )
2 editions published in 2002 in English and held by 8 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Trade costs and real exchange rate volatility : the role of Richardian comparative advantages by Claudio Bravo-Ortega ( Book )
2 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 5 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
 
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Audience level: 0.63 (from 0.47 for The Extern ... to 0.92 for Firm entry ...)
Alternative Names
Di Giovanni, Julian Paul
DiGiovanni, Julian
Giovanni, J. di
Giovanni, Julian di
Languages
English (128)
German (1)
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