WorldCat Identities

Intelligence Policy Center (U.S.)

Works: 43 works in 67 publications in 1 language and 3,260 library holdings
Genres: Case studies  Conference proceedings  History 
Classifications: JK468.I6, 363.3470285
Publication Timeline
Publications about Intelligence Policy Center (U.S.) Publications about Intelligence Policy Center (U.S.)
Publications by Intelligence Policy Center (U.S.) Publications by Intelligence Policy Center (U.S.)
Most widely held works by Intelligence Policy Center (U.S.)
Whither al-Anbar Province? five scenarios through 2011 by James B Bruce ( )
2 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 1,155 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq will create a vacuum in the way security is achieved and power is exercised throughout Iraq. As U.S. Marines draw down in al-Anbar Province, significant changes can be expected throughout the province in security, political, economic, and even cultural relationships. In late 2008, RAND convened a series of three one-day workshops bringing together civilian and military analysts and practitioners with experience on al-Anbar Province or comparable expertise on Iraq. Workshops participants identified five relatively distinct futures, or scenarios, for al-Anbar that provide plausible but alternative trajectories for the province between early 2009 and the end of 2011. These scenarios resulted from extensive consideration of the major assumptions that may underlie any future projections and the testing of those assumptions in a variety of exercises. The deliberations also focused on the major factors that will shape the development of one or another scenario
Reorganizing U.S. domestic intelligence assessing the options by Gregory F Treverton ( )
2 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 1,101 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
"One of the questions in the fight against terrorism is whether the United States needs a dedicated domestic intelligence agency separate from law enforcement, on the model of many comparable democracies. To examine this issue, Congress directed that the Department of Homeland Security perform an independent study on the feasibility of creating a counterterrorism intelligence agency and the department turned to the RAND Corporation for this analysis but asked it specifically not to make a recommendation. This volume lays out the relevant considerations for creating such an agency. It draws on a variety of research methods, including historical and legal analysis; a review of organizational theory; examination of current domestic intelligence efforts, their history, and the public's view of them; examination of the domestic intelligence agencies in six other democracies; and interviews with an expert panel made up of current and former intelligence and law enforcement professionals. The monograph highlights five principal problems that might be seen to afflict current domestic intelligence enterprise; for each, there are several possible solutions, and the creation of a new agency addresses only some of the five problems. The volume discusses how a technique called break-even analysis can be used to evaluate proposals for a new agency in the context of the perceived magnitude of the terrorism threat. It concludes with a discussion of how to address the unanswered questions and lack of information that currently cloud the debate over whether to create a dedicated domestic intelligence agency."--Rand web site
Exploring religious conflict by Gregory F Treverton ( Book )
3 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 198 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Reports the results of a workshop that brought together intelligence analysts and experts on religion with the goal of providing background and a framework of reference for assessing religious motivations in international politics and discovering what causes religiously rooted violence and how states have sought to take advantage of or contain religious violence -- with emphasis on radical Islam
How insurgencies end by Ben Connable ( Book )
3 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 195 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
"This study tested conventional wisdom about how insurgencies end against the evidence from 89 insurgencies. It compares a quantitative and qualitative analysis of 89 insurgency case studies with lessons from insurgency and counterinsurgency (COIN) literature. While no two insurgencies are the same, the authors find that modern insurgencies last about ten years and that a government's chances of winning may increase slightly over time. Insurgencies are suited to hierarchical organization and rural terrain, and sanctuary is vital to insurgents. Insurgent use of terrorism often backfires, and withdrawal of state sponsorship can cripple an insurgency, typically leading to its defeat. Inconsistent support to either side generally presages defeat for that side, although weak insurgencies can still win. Anocracies (pseudodemocracies) rarely succeed against insurgencies. Historically derived force ratios are neither accurate nor predictive, and civil defense forces are very useful for both sides. Key indicators of possible trends and tipping points in an insurgency include changes in desertions, defections, and the flow of information to the COIN effort. The more parties in an insurgency, the more likely it is to have a complex and protracted ending. There are no COIN shortcuts.."--Rand web site
Toward a theory of intelligence : workshop report ( Book )
4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 138 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
In June 2005, the RAND Corporation and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence convened a one-day workshop to discuss how theories underlie intelligence and might lead to both a better understanding and better practice of U.S. intelligence. Forty attendees (practitioners, academics, and specialists) participated in four panels: What Is Intelligence Theory?; Is There an American Theory of Intelligence?; Which Assumptions Should Be Overturned?; and How Can Intelligence Results Be Measured? Issues debated included whether intelligence should be defined narrowly, as secret state activity, or broadly, as information for decisionmaking; whether there is a uniquely American theory or practice of intelligence, in its technology, militarization and congressional oversight; whether closer relationships between intelligence officers and policymakers leads to politicization; and how to devise metrics for assessing the performance of intelligence. Readers will find opinions that look familiar as well as others that challenge or refine the customary formulations
Syria as an arena of strategic competition by Jeffrey Martini ( )
3 editions published in 2013 in English and held by 136 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
"With the regional balance of power hinging on the outcome of the Syrian uprising, RAND conducted an analytic exercise to generate a greater understanding of how external actors are shaping the conflict."--Rand Corp. web site
The next steps in reshaping intelligence by Gregory F Treverton ( Book )
4 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 134 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Two national commissions₂ findings helped to lay the groundwork for the December 2004 intelligence reorganization bill. Most notably, the bill calls for a new Director of National Intelligence (DNI) to head and coordinate the U.S. Intelligence Community. Currently, the DNI has broad responsibilities but only ambiguous authorities. Drawing on a number of projects for various intelligence agencies, as well as additional research, the author of this paper looks at this position of DNI and how it will interact and coordinate with intelligence agencies and other elements of the Executive Branch. In addition to organizational changes, the author looks at the cultural changes that need to take place in the community, including those related to capacity building, issued-based collection, analysis improvement, wider diversity of workforce, and targeting collection. In particular, the paper highlights the importance of moving toward center-based organizations and away from the ₃stovepipes₄ of the Cold War. In accomplishing such goals, the DNI will begin to turn his formal authority into real authority
Ensuring language capability in the intelligence community what is the best mix of military, civilians, and contractors? by Beth J Asch ( )
2 editions published in 2013 in English and held by 38 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Language capability is provided in the intelligence community by military personnel, government civilians, and contractors. A key question is what is the best mix of these three types of personnel in terms of cost and effectiveness. This research draws on U.S. Department of Defense guidance and the economics and defense manpower literatures to provide a framework for broadly assessing the costs and benefits of different sources of personnel to provide a given capability, including language capabilities. The authors interviewed personnel at the National Security Agency/Central Security Service and conducted an exploratory quantitative analysis to identify the factors that may affect the best mix of language capability in the intelligence community. A key finding is that each category of personnel provides unique advantages and belongs in the IC language workforce but that a number of factors lead to civilians being a more cost-effective source of language capability than military personnel, even after accounting for the flow to the civil service of trained veterans with language capability. Policies that reduce language-training costs for military personnel and increase the flow of veterans to the civil service might help reduce this disparity
National Intelligence University's role in interagency research : recommendations from the intelligence community by Judith A Johnston ( )
1 edition published in 2013 in English and held by 38 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
The Center for Strategic Intelligence Research (CSIR) of the National Intelligence University (NIU) is responsible for supporting faculty and student research efforts and coordinating NIU research activities with the Intelligence Community (IC). A challenge to these coordination efforts lies in the fact that research being conducted regularly in the IC exists, for the most part, in small pockets scattered throughout a number of different IC agencies. To better identify collaborative research opportunities, topics, and processes, CSIR asked RAND to conduct a study that would capture information about these research entities, their responsibilities, and their willingness to support interagency research with NIU. The study team conducted semistructured interviews with a purposive sample of representatives of research entities in the IC. The interviews discussed interagency research and collaboration with NIU. We found that the majority of these research entities are small (less than ten full-time staff), face the competing responsibilities of short-term analytic responses and longer-term analysis and research, and are interested in research plans aligned with national priorities. The research entities are willing to support NIU, but expect NIU to take the lead in facilitating research collaboration
Increasing flexibility and agility at the National Reconnaissance Office : lessons from modular design, occupational surprise, and commercial research and development processes by Dave Baiocchi ( )
1 edition published in 2013 in English and held by 37 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
To help the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) become more flexible and agile in an increasingly uncertain world, RAND sought answers to two key questions. First, would the NRO benefit from building modular satellites? RAND researchers developed a method for evaluating whether a system is a good candidate for modularity and applied it to systems both inside and outside the NRO. The authors found that NRO space systems do not appear to be strong candidates for modularization. Second, what lessons might be drawn from how chief executive officers, military personnel, and health care professionals (among others) respond to surprise? RAND developed a framework to categorize professionals' responses to surprise and then conducted discussions with representatives from 13 different professions, including former ambassadors, chief executive officers, military personnel, and physicians. The authors observed that all interviewees used common coping strategies. The authors also found some differences in response to surprise that depend on two factors: time available to respond and the level of chaos in the environment. The report concludes with recommendations on actions that the NRO can take to improve the flexibility of its hardware and the workforce
Mapping the risks assessing homeland security implications of publicly available geospatial information by John C Baker ( )
2 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 16 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
A delicate balance portfolio analysis and management for intelligence information dissemination programs by Eric Landree ( Book )
1 edition published in 2009 in English and held by 12 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
This description of the application of the RAND Corporation's PortMan portfolio analysis and management method for the National Security Agency (NSA) Information Sharing Services (ISS) division demonstrates how PortMan (1) enables the data-driven analysis of project portfolios and (2) provides a means for monitoring the progress of potentially high-value projects and associated risk-mitigation strategies. RAND developed two sets of metrics to help ISS estimate the expected value of the projects in its portfolio, one for research and development (R&D) projects and one for operations and maintenance (O&M) projects. Metrics were based on elicitations of the important components of value and risk from ISS staff and an analysis of documents provided by ISS management. RAND also conducted a Delphi consensus-building exercise with subject matter experts from ISS's Senior Leadership Group (SLG) to estimate both the value and the probability of successful implementation of each project. PortMan allows for the inclusion of value, risk, and cost in the portfolio analysis, and RAND used a linear programming model to select a portfolio of projects that delivers the maximum portfolio expected value for the available budget. This analysis generated reproducible and auditable data to support programmatic decisionmaking within ISS; it also provided a venue in which ISS leadership could identify areas of consensus and non-consensus and debate the latter. Finally, it provided data and analysis of expected value versus program budget and expected value-to-cost ratios of individual projects that can be used by program managers and directors in discussions with supervisors and senior management
Doing business with the euro : risks and opportunities by Keith Crane ( )
2 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 10 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
On May 18, 2005, the RAND Corporation and the Delegation of the European Commission to the United States held a conference in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on "Doing Business with the Euro." The purpose of the event was to promote discussion between senior policymakers and corporate executives on the young currency's expanding role in the global economy. The conference focused on the strategic and operational ways in which several leading U.S. corporations have successfully adjusted their accounting, financial management, and European operations to adapt to the post-euro economy, and to counsel corporations and financial institutions in the Pittsburgh region and beyond on ways to boost exports and profits by taking advantage of the emergence of the euro
Mullahs, guards, and bonyads : an exploration of Iran's leadership dynamics ( Book )
2 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 7 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
The Islamic Republic of Iran poses serious challenges to U.S. interests in the Middle East, and its nuclear program continues to worry the international community. The presidential election of June 2009 that returned Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power and led to broad protests and a government crackdown presents yet another cause for U.S. concern. Yet the U.S. ability to "read" the Iranian regime and formulate appropriate policies has been handicapped by both a lack of access to the country and the opacity of decisionmaking in Tehran. To help analysts better understand the Iranian political system, the authors describe · Iranian strategic culture, including the perceptions that drive state behavior · the informal networks, formal government institutions, and personalities that influence decisionmaking in the Islamic Republic · the impact of elite behavior on Iranian policy formulation and execution · factionalism, emerging fissures within the current regime, and other key trends. The authors observe that it is the combination of key personalities, networks based on a number of commonalities, and institutions--not any one of these elements alone--that defines the complex political system of the Islamic Republic. Factional competition and informal, back-channel maneuvering trump the formal processes for policymaking. The Supreme Leader retains the most power, but he is not omnipotent in the highly dynamic landscape of Iranian power politics. The evolving role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the vulnerability of the elite "old guard" to challenge, and the succession of the next Supreme Leader are key determinants of Iran's future direction. In light of complexities in the Iranian system, U.S. policymakers should avoid trying to leverage the domestic politics of Iran and instead accept the need to deal with the government of the day as it stands. Moreover, they must take as an article of faith that dealing with Iran does not necessarily mean dealing with a unitary actor due to the competing power centers in the Islamic Republic
The Radicalization of Diasporas and Terrorism a joint conference by the RAND Corporation and the Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich (2007) ( Book )
2 editions published in 2007 in English and held by 4 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Over the past two years, certain Diaspora communities, frustrated with a perceived war against the Muslim world, have turned against their adopted homelands, targeting the government and its people by supporting terrorist attacks against Western countries through recruitment, fundraising, and training. Critical issues include incidents that prove these communities will indeed attack their adopted homelands; that recruits come from converts to Islam, first-generation migrants disaffected with their new society, and second-generation failed assimilations; that Diasporas create financial lifelines to propagandize, recruit, raise funds, procure weapons, and that they lobby their adopted governments to pressure the government of their country of origin. Second- and third-generation immigrants who oppose their home governments represent adversaries almost impossible to profile. Many share a growing sense of aggrievement and frustration with a perceived war against the Muslim world by the West, fueled by events in Iraq, Palestine, and the Balkans. The challenge is to identify emerging threats in Diaspora communities, but to avoid alienating these groups and becoming forced to follow only reactive policies with regard to this growing threat
Should the United States establish a dedicated domestic intelligence agency for counterterrorism? by Kristin Leuschner ( Book )
1 edition published in 2008 in English and held by 3 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Turkish-Iran relations in a changing Middle East by F. Stephen Larrabee ( Book )
2 editions published in 2013 in English and held by 3 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Turkish-Iranian cooperation has visibly intensified in recent years, thanks in part to Turkish energy needs and Iran⁰́₉s vast oil and natural gas resources. However, Turkey and Iran tend to be rivals rather than close partners. While they may share certain economic and security interests, especially regarding the Kurdish issue, their interests are at odds in many areas across the Middle East. Turkey⁰́₉s support for the opposition in Syria, Iran⁰́₉s only true state ally in the Middle East, is one example. Iraq has also become a field of growing competition between Turkey and Iran. Iran⁰́₉s nuclear program has been a source of strain and divergence in U.S.-Turkish relations. However, the differences between the United States and Turkey regarding Iran⁰́₉s nuclear program are largely over tactics, not strategic goals. Turkey⁰́₉s main fear is that Iran⁰́₉s acquisition of nuclear arms could lead to a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. This, in turn, could increase pressure on the Turkish government to consider developing its own nuclear weapon capability. U.S. and Turkish interests have become more convergent since the onset of the Syrian crisis. However, while U.S. and Turkish interests in the Middle East closely overlap, they are not identical. Thus, the United States should not expect Turkey to follow its policy toward Iran unconditionally. Turkey has enforced United Nations sanctions against Iran but, given Ankara⁰́₉s close energy ties to Tehran, may be reluctant to undertake the harshest measures against Iran
Chinese economic coercion against Taiwan a tricky weapon to use by Murray Scot Tanner ( )
2 editions published between 2006 and 2007 in English and held by 3 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
Ever since the economic relationship between China and Taiwan began to explode in the early 1990s, U.S. policymakers have been concerned that China could exploit these economic ties to coerce Taiwan into making political concessions concerning the two entities' political relationship. Taiwan and China now rely on each other for important contributions to their respective economies, and each would suffer great economic pain and dislocation in the event of a major disruption in that relationship, but Taiwan is far more dependent upon mainland China than mainland China is dependent upon Taiwan. This monograph analyzes the political impact of that rapidly growing economic relationship and evaluates the prospects for Beijing to exploit it by employing economic coercion against Taiwan. The author evaluates Taiwan's potential economic vulnerability to efforts by the Chinese to cut off or disrupt key aspects of the cross-strait relationship and analyzes the challenges that China has faced in its efforts to convert this raw, potential economic influence into effective political leverage. The author argues that, while Taiwan's growing dependence is a source of genuine concern, China has encountered serious problems in exploiting the economic weapon to coerce Taiwan. The monograph closes by exploring the potential impact of cross-strait economic diplomacy on U.S. policy interests in the Taiwan Strait
Considering the creation of a domestic intelligence agency in the United States lessons from the experiences of Australia, Canada, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom by Brian A Jackson ( Book )
2 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 2 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
With terrorism still prominent on the U.S. agenda, whether the country's prevention efforts match the threat the United States faces continues to be central in policy debate. One element of this debate is questioning whether the United States should create a dedicated domestic intelligence agency. Case studies of five other democracies--Australia, Canada, France, Germany, and the UK --provide lessons and common themes that may help policymakers decide. The authors find that: most of the five countries separate the agency that conducts domestic intelligence gathering from any arrest and detention powers; each country has instituted some measure of external oversight over its domestic intelligence agency; liaison with other international, foreign, state, and local agencies helps ensure the best sharing of information; the boundary between domestic and international intelligence activities may be blurring.--Publisher description
Data collection methods : semi-structured interviews and focus groups by Margaret C Harrell ( Book )
1 edition published in 2009 in English and held by 2 WorldCat member libraries worldwide
The authors developed an introductory short course on qualitative research methods. This document provides an annotated version of the course material, which includes an overview of semi-structured interviews and focus groups, two techniques that are commonly used in policy research and applicable to many research questions
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Alternative Names
National Defense Research Institute (U.S.). Intelligence Policy Center.
Rand Corporation. National Security Research Division. Intelligence Policy Center.
English (42)