WorldCat Identities

Intelligence Policy Center (U.S.)

Works: 33 works in 51 publications in 1 language and 3,850 library holdings
Genres: Conference papers and proceedings  Case studies  History  Rules 
Roles: Publisher
Classifications: JK468.I6, 363.3470285
Publication Timeline
Most widely held works by Intelligence Policy Center (U.S.)
How insurgencies end by Ben Connable( Book )

2 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 197 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"This study tested conventional wisdom about how insurgencies end against the evidence from 89 insurgencies. It compares a quantitative and qualitative analysis of 89 insurgency case studies with lessons from insurgency and counterinsurgency (COIN) literature. While no two insurgencies are the same, the authors find that modern insurgencies last about ten years and that a government's chances of winning may increase slightly over time. Insurgencies are suited to hierarchical organization and rural terrain, and sanctuary is vital to insurgents. Insurgent use of terrorism often backfires, and withdrawal of state sponsorship can cripple an insurgency, typically leading to its defeat. Inconsistent support to either side generally presages defeat for that side, although weak insurgencies can still win. Anocracies (pseudodemocracies) rarely succeed against insurgencies. Historically derived force ratios are neither accurate nor predictive, and civil defense forces are very useful for both sides. Key indicators of possible trends and tipping points in an insurgency include changes in desertions, defections, and the flow of information to the COIN effort. The more parties in an insurgency, the more likely it is to have a complex and protracted ending. There are no COIN shortcuts."--Rand web site
Exploring religious conflict by Gregory F Treverton( Book )

2 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 169 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Reports the results of a workshop that brought together intelligence analysts and experts on religion with the goal of providing background and a framework of reference for assessing religious motivations in international politics and discovering what causes religiously rooted violence and how states have sought to take advantage of or contain religious violence -- with emphasis on radical Islam
The next steps in reshaping intelligence by Gregory F Treverton( Book )

4 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 127 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Two national commissions₂ findings helped to lay the groundwork for the December 2004 intelligence reorganization bill. Most notably, the bill calls for a new Director of National Intelligence (DNI) to head and coordinate the U.S. Intelligence Community. Currently, the DNI has broad responsibilities but only ambiguous authorities. Drawing on a number of projects for various intelligence agencies, as well as additional research, the author of this paper looks at this position of DNI and how it will interact and coordinate with intelligence agencies and other elements of the Executive Branch. In addition to organizational changes, the author looks at the cultural changes that need to take place in the community, including those related to capacity building, issued-based collection, analysis improvement, wider diversity of workforce, and targeting collection. In particular, the paper highlights the importance of moving toward center-based organizations and away from the ₃stovepipes₄ of the Cold War. In accomplishing such goals, the DNI will begin to turn his formal authority into real authority
Toward a theory of intelligence : workshop report( Book )

4 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 122 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

In June 2005, the RAND Corporation and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence convened a one-day workshop to discuss how theories underlie intelligence and might lead to both a better understanding and better practice of U.S. intelligence. Forty attendees (practitioners, academics, and specialists) participated in four panels: What Is Intelligence Theory?; Is There an American Theory of Intelligence?; Which Assumptions Should Be Overturned?; and How Can Intelligence Results Be Measured? Issues debated included whether intelligence should be defined narrowly, as secret state activity, or broadly, as information for decisionmaking; whether there is a uniquely American theory or practice of intelligence, in its technology, militarization and congressional oversight; whether closer relationships between intelligence officers and policymakers leads to politicization; and how to devise metrics for assessing the performance of intelligence. Readers will find opinions that look familiar as well as others that challenge or refine the customary formulations
Syria as an arena of strategic competition by Jeffrey Martini( Book )

3 editions published in 2013 in English and held by 60 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"With the regional balance of power hinging on the outcome of the Syrian uprising, RAND conducted an analytic exercise to generate a greater understanding of how external actors are shaping the conflict."--Rand Corp. web site. "Less than two years since the beginning of the uprising in Syria, localized protests have morphed into full-blown civil conflict. Along with internal escalation, the conflict has drawn in external actors, including Syria's neighbors and extra-regional powers. With the regional balance of power hinging on the conflict's outcome, Middle Eastern and extra-regional states have taken sides -- some in support of the Assad regime, others in support of the opposition. RAND convened a group of 26 experts who cover Syria and the various external players to participate in an analytic exercise on November 16, 2012, to generate a greater understanding of the parties and issues in play. The report begins by analyzing what is driving both regional (e.g., Iran and Saudi Arabia) and extra-regional (e.g., Russia) players to intervene in the Syrian conflict. It then proceeds to look at the internal actors (e.g., the Free Syrian Army and Alawite community) that may operate as conduits of external influence. The report concludes with an examination of the relationships between external and internal actors and possible effects of these groups' actions
Mullahs, guards, and bonyads : an exploration of Iran's leadership dynamics( Book )

2 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 7 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The Islamic Republic of Iran poses serious challenges to U.S. interests in the Middle East, and its nuclear program continues to worry the international community. The presidential election of June 2009 that returned Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power and led to broad protests and a government crackdown presents yet another cause for U.S. concern. Yet the U.S. ability to "read" the Iranian regime and formulate appropriate policies has been handicapped by both a lack of access to the country and the opacity of decisionmaking in Tehran. To help analysts better understand the Iranian political system, the authors describe · Iranian strategic culture, including the perceptions that drive state behavior · the informal networks, formal government institutions, and personalities that influence decisionmaking in the Islamic Republic · the impact of elite behavior on Iranian policy formulation and execution · factionalism, emerging fissures within the current regime, and other key trends. The authors observe that it is the combination of key personalities, networks based on a number of commonalities, and institutions--not any one of these elements alone--that defines the complex political system of the Islamic Republic. Factional competition and informal, back-channel maneuvering trump the formal processes for policymaking. The Supreme Leader retains the most power, but he is not omnipotent in the highly dynamic landscape of Iranian power politics. The evolving role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the vulnerability of the elite "old guard" to challenge, and the succession of the next Supreme Leader are key determinants of Iran's future direction. In light of complexities in the Iranian system, U.S. policymakers should avoid trying to leverage the domestic politics of Iran and instead accept the need to deal with the government of the day as it stands. Moreover, they must take as an article of faith that dealing with Iran does not necessarily mean dealing with a unitary actor due to the competing power centers in the Islamic Republic
Should the United States establish a dedicated domestic intelligence agency for counterterrorism? by Kristin Leuschner( Book )

1 edition published in 2008 in English and held by 3 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Global technology revolution 2020 technology trends and cross-country variation( Book )

1 edition published in 2006 in English and held by 3 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Turkish-Iran relations in a changing Middle East by F. Stephen Larrabee( Book )

2 editions published in 2013 in English and held by 3 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Turkish-Iranian cooperation has visibly intensified in recent years, thanks in part to Turkish energy needs and Iran⁰́₉s vast oil and natural gas resources. However, Turkey and Iran tend to be rivals rather than close partners. While they may share certain economic and security interests, especially regarding the Kurdish issue, their interests are at odds in many areas across the Middle East. Turkey⁰́₉s support for the opposition in Syria, Iran⁰́₉s only true state ally in the Middle East, is one example. Iraq has also become a field of growing competition between Turkey and Iran. Iran⁰́₉s nuclear program has been a source of strain and divergence in U.S.-Turkish relations. However, the differences between the United States and Turkey regarding Iran⁰́₉s nuclear program are largely over tactics, not strategic goals. Turkey⁰́₉s main fear is that Iran⁰́₉s acquisition of nuclear arms could lead to a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. This, in turn, could increase pressure on the Turkish government to consider developing its own nuclear weapon capability. U.S. and Turkish interests have become more convergent since the onset of the Syrian crisis. However, while U.S. and Turkish interests in the Middle East closely overlap, they are not identical. Thus, the United States should not expect Turkey to follow its policy toward Iran unconditionally. Turkey has enforced United Nations sanctions against Iran but, given Ankara⁰́₉s close energy ties to Tehran, may be reluctant to undertake the harshest measures against Iran
Underkill : scalable capabilities for military operations amid populations by David C Gompert( Book )

2 editions published in 2009 in English and held by 2 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The battle for Gaza revealed an extremist strategy: hiding in cities and provoking attack to cause civilian deaths that can be blamed on the attacking forces. The U.S. and allied militaries, having no options but lethal force or no options at all, are ill-equipped to defeat this strategy. The use of lethal force in dense populations can harm and alienate the very people whose cooperation U.S. forces are trying to earn. To solve this problem, a new RAND study proposes a "continuum of force"--A suite of capabilities that includes sound, light, lasers, cell phones, and video cameras. In missions ranging from counterinsurgency to peacekeeping to humanitarian intervention to quelling disorder, the typical small unit of the U.S. military should and can have portable, easy-to-use, all-purpose capabilities to carry out its missions without killing or hurting civilians that may get in the way. The technologies for these capabilities are available but have not been recognized as a solution to this strategic problem and, consequently, need more high-level attention and funding
Understanding the insider threat : proceedings of a March 2004 workshop( )

1 edition published in 2004 in English and held by 2 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Fixing leaks : assessing the department of defense's approach to preventing and deterring unauthorized disclosures by James B Bruce( Book )

1 edition published in 2004 in English and held by 2 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

In 2012, the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence established the Unauthorized Disclosures Program Implementation Team to prevent and deter the unauthorized disclosures of classified information by all Department of Defense personnel through the implementation of the UD Strategic Plan. RAND was asked to help monitor and assess the potential for effectiveness of this new initiative. Researchers determined that the UD PIT's implementation of the UD Strategic Plan has made important and discernible progress toward its main objectives, but the advances are partial, fragile, and may be impermanent, facing strategic and tactical obstacles. RAND offered 22 recommendations, including ways to sustain and expand the effort, a continued emphasis on top-down support, establishing metrics, improving accountability, and prioritizing responses
Ensuring language capability in the intelligence community : what is the best mix of military, civilians, and contractors? by Beth J Asch( Book )

2 editions published in 2013 in English and held by 2 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Language capability is provided in the intelligence community by military personnel, government civilians, and contractors. A key question is what is the best mix of these three types of personnel in terms of cost and effectiveness. This research draws on U.S. Department of Defense guidance and the economics and defense manpower literatures to provide a framework for broadly assessing the costs and benefits of different sources of personnel to provide a given capability, including language capabilities. The authors interviewed personnel at the National Security Agency/Central Security Service and conducted an exploratory quantitative analysis to identify the factors that may affect the best mix of language capability in the intelligence community. A key finding is that each category of personnel provides unique advantages and belongs in the IC language workforce but that a number of factors lead to civilians being a more cost-effective source of language capability than military personnel, even after accounting for the flow to the civil service of trained veterans with language capability. Policies that reduce language-training costs for military personnel and increase the flow of veterans to the civil service might help reduce this disparity
Reorganizing U.S. domestic intelligence : assessing the options by Gregory F Treverton( Book )

3 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 1 WorldCat member library worldwide

"One of the questions in the fight against terrorism is whether the United States needs a dedicated domestic intelligence agency separate from law enforcement, on the model of many comparable democracies. To examine this issue, Congress directed that the Department of Homeland Security perform an independent study on the feasibility of creating a counterterrorism intelligence agency and the department turned to the RAND Corporation for this analysis but asked it specifically not to make a recommendation. This volume lays out the relevant considerations for creating such an agency. It draws on a variety of research methods, including historical and legal analysis; a review of organizational theory; examination of current domestic intelligence efforts, their history, and the public's view of them; examination of the domestic intelligence agencies in six other democracies; and interviews with an expert panel made up of current and former intelligence and law enforcement professionals. The monograph highlights five principal problems that might be seen to afflict current domestic intelligence enterprise; for each, there are several possible solutions, and the creation of a new agency addresses only some of the five problems. The volume discusses how a technique called break-even analysis can be used to evaluate proposals for a new agency in the context of the perceived magnitude of the terrorism threat. It concludes with a discussion of how to address the unanswered questions and lack of information that currently cloud the debate over whether to create a dedicated domestic intelligence agency."--Publisher's website
Whither al-Anbar Province? : five scenarios through 2011 by James B Bruce( Book )

2 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 1 WorldCat member library worldwide

The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq will create a vacuum in the way security is achieved and power is exercised throughout Iraq. As U.S. Marines draw down in al-Anbar Province, significant changes can be expected throughout the province in security, political, economic, and even cultural relationships. In late 2008, RAND convened a series of three one-day workshops bringing together civilian and military analysts and practitioners with experience on al-Anbar Province or comparable expertise on Iraq. Workshops participants identified five relatively distinct futures, or scenarios, for al-Anbar that provide plausible but alternative trajectories for the province between early 2009 and the end of 2011. These scenarios resulted from extensive consideration of the major assumptions that may underlie any future projections and the testing of those assumptions in a variety of exercises. The deliberations also focused on the major factors that will shape the development of one or another scenario
Doing business with the euro : risks and opportunities by Keith Crane( )

1 edition published in 2005 in English and held by 0 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

On May 18, 2005, the RAND Corporation and the Delegation of the European Commission to the United States held a conference in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, on "Doing Business with the Euro." The purpose of the event was to promote discussion between senior policymakers and corporate executives on the young currency's expanding role in the global economy. The conference focused on the strategic and operational ways in which several leading U.S. corporations have successfully adjusted their accounting, financial management, and European operations to adapt to the post-euro economy, and to counsel corporations and financial institutions in the Pittsburgh region and beyond on ways to boost exports and profits by taking advantage of the emergence of the euro
Mapping the risks : assessing homeland security implications of publicly available geospatial information by John C Baker( )

1 edition published in 2004 in English and held by 0 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Following the attacks of September 11, 2001, many federal government agencies began restricting some of their publicly available geospatial data and information, particularly sources accessible through the World Wide Web. U.S. decisionmakers confront a major analytical challenge in assessing whether and how such information specifically helps potential attackers, including terrorists, to select U.S. homeland sites and plan their attacks. At the direction of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, researchers at the RAND Corporation sought to better understand how publicly available geospatial information can be exploited by possible attackers and what kinds of information might prove most valuable. After evaluating both the "supply" and "demand" of geospatial information, including a survey of several thousand Web sites, RAND researchers developed an analytical framework that applies three key criteria--usefulness, uniqueness, and societal benefits and costs--to assessing the homeland security implications of geospatial information that is publicly available. The researchers offer recommendations on additional steps that the federal government can take to increase the awareness of the public and private sectors concerning the potential homeland security implications of geospatial information
The radicalization of diasporas and terrorism : a joint conference by the RAND Corporation and the Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich by Bruce Hoffman( )

1 edition published in 2007 in English and held by 0 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Certain Diaspora communities, frustrated by a perceived war against the Muslim world, have turned against their adopted homelands, targeting the government and its people by supporting terrorist attacks against Western countries through recruitment, fundraising, and training. The problem is exacerbated by the open borders of globalization. Emerging threats must be identified without alienating Diaspora communities and thereby playing into terrorist hands
Increasing flexibility and agility at the National Reconnaissance Office : lessons from modular design, occupational surprise, and commercial research and development processes by Dave Baiocchi( )

1 edition published in 2013 in English and held by 0 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

To help the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) become more flexible and agile in an increasingly uncertain world, RAND sought answers to two key questions. First, would the NRO benefit from building modular satellites? RAND researchers developed a method for evaluating whether a system is a good candidate for modularity and applied it to systems both inside and outside the NRO. The authors found that NRO space systems do not appear to be strong candidates for modularization. Second, what lessons might be drawn from how chief executive officers, military personnel, and health care professionals (among others) respond to surprise? RAND developed a framework to categorize professionals' responses to surprise and then conducted discussions with representatives from 13 different professions, including former ambassadors, chief executive officers, military personnel, and physicians. The authors observed that all interviewees used common coping strategies. The authors also found some differences in response to surprise that depend on two factors: time available to respond and the level of chaos in the environment. The report concludes with recommendations on actions that the NRO can take to improve the flexibility of its hardware and the workforce
National Intelligence University's role in interagency research : recommendations from the intelligence community by Judith A Johnston( )

1 edition published in 2013 in English and held by 0 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The Center for Strategic Intelligence Research (CSIR) of the National Intelligence University (NIU) is responsible for supporting faculty and student research efforts and coordinating NIU research activities with the Intelligence Community (IC). A challenge to these coordination efforts lies in the fact that research being conducted regularly in the IC exists, for the most part, in small pockets scattered throughout a number of different IC agencies. To better identify collaborative research opportunities, topics, and processes, CSIR asked RAND to conduct a study that would capture information about these research entities, their responsibilities, and their willingness to support interagency research with NIU. The study team conducted semistructured interviews with a purposive sample of representatives of research entities in the IC. The interviews discussed interagency research and collaboration with NIU. We found that the majority of these research entities are small (less than ten full-time staff), face the competing responsibilities of short-term analytic responses and longer-term analysis and research, and are interested in research plans aligned with national priorities. The research entities are willing to support NIU, but expect NIU to take the lead in facilitating research collaboration
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How insurgencies end
Alternative Names

National Defense Research Institute (U.S.). Intelligence Policy Center.

Rand Corporation. National Security Research Division. Intelligence Policy Center.

English (37)

Exploring religious conflictMullahs, guards, and bonyads : an exploration of Iran's leadership dynamicsUnderkill : scalable capabilities for military operations amid populationsUnderstanding the insider threat : proceedings of a March 2004 workshopReorganizing U.S. domestic intelligence : assessing the optionsWhither al-Anbar Province? : five scenarios through 2011Mapping the risks : assessing homeland security implications of publicly available geospatial informationThe radicalization of diasporas and terrorism : a joint conference by the RAND Corporation and the Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich