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Thu Oct 16 18:01:26 2014 UTClccn-no920197760.47Macroeconomic model spillovers and their discontents0.640.90R & D spillovers and global growth /56771669no 920197763227778Bayoumi, T.Bayoumi, Tamim.Bayoumi, TaminBayūmī, TamīmBayūmī, Tamīm A.Bayyūmī, TamīmBayyūmī, Tamīm A.lccn-n81052755International Monetary Fundlccn-n81065103Eichengreen, Barry J.edtlccn-n83142289Collyns, Charlesedtlccn-n85194361Aghevli, Bijan B.edtlccn-n90637036Meredith, Guyedtlccn-n82237138International Monetary FundWestern Hemisphere Departmentlccn-no2009043117International Monetary FundStrategy, Policy, and Review Departmentlccn-n79139286National Bureau of Economic Researchlccn-n77001219International Monetary FundResearch Departmentlccn-no94031823Mühleisen, MartinedtBayoumi, Tamim A.Conference proceedingsHistoryMonetary policyJapanEconomic historyFiscal policyEconomic policyFinancial crisesCanadaStocks--PricesBalance of paymentsForeign exchange ratesStructural adjustment (Economic policy)Monetary unionsUnited StatesGold standardMacroeconomics--Econometric modelsEconomic policy--Econometric modelsSaving and investmentCapital movementsMexicoInternational economic relationsTreaties, etc. (Canada : 1992 October 7)Labor marketManpower policyOil sands industry--Economic aspectsBalance of payments--Econometric modelsMultiplier (Economics)Revenue--Econometric modelsPetroleum industry and trade--Econometric modelsGlobal Financial Crisis (2008-2009)Financial leverageInvestment bankingSecuritiesConsumption (Economics)--Mathematical modelsCredit--Econometric modelsCommerceMacroeconomicsEconometric modelsInternational financeForeign exchange rates--Econometric modelsRegionalism (International organization)Europe--European Economic Community countriesInterest rates--Econometric modelsDeflation (Finance)--Econometric modelsMonetary policy--Econometric modelsCompetitionTariff preferences--Econometric modelsCommercial policy--Econometric modelsTrade blocs--Econometric modelsForeign trade regulation--Econometric modelsEuropean Economic Community1989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201488921781040330.952049HG5773ocn468302430ocn797370433ocn452914836ocn777683934ocn804420663ocn807793752ocn807277181ocn760500052ocn441339461ocn76043022687413ocn793203326file19990.50Post-bubble blues how Japan responded to asset price collapseJapans accounts for over half the output of the Asian region, but for muchof the 1990s its economy was virtually stagnant, and it is only just emerging from its worst recession since the Second World War+-+27230220067849ocn654723736file19980.50Aghevli, Bijan BStructural change in Japan macroeconomic impact and policy challengesConference proceedingsThis volume, by Bijan B. Aghevli, Tamim Bayoumi, and Guy Meredith, is based on a seminar on structural change in Japan held in early 1997 and chaired by the IMF's First Deputy Managing Director, Stanley Fischer. Discussion of teh day-to-day management of the standard levers of fiscal and monetary policy is interlinked with consideration for the more deep-seated structural issues. By shifting and destabilizing the underlying economic relationships and creating uncertainty, structural change complicates the task of policy analysis. This volume describes how the IMF is responding to these challenges and how outside experts assess this effect+-+614102200643811ocn030919402book19940.74Bayoumi, Tamim AOne money or many? : analyzing the prospects for monetary unification in various parts of the worldThis study uses a structural vector-autoregression approach to identify aggregate supply and demand disturbances and to distinguish them from subsequent responses: these measures can be used to identify groups of countries suited for monetary union. The analysis identifies three sets of countries that, on the basis of their macroeconomic disturbances and responses, are plausible candidates for monetary unification: a Northern European group (Germany, Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands, France, Denmark); a Northeast Asian bloc (Japan, Korea, Taiwan); and a Southeast Asian area (Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and possibly Thailand). The paper provides also a selective survey of the literature on optimum currency areas, and, for comparison, results using regional data for the United States, an existing monetary union.--SCAD summary+-+739701633537615ocn034245103book19960.77Modern perspectives on the gold standardHistoryThis book explores current exchange rate instability in the light of the operation of the gold standard in the years prior to 1914+-+841620670530510ocn057245961book20040.79Bayoumi, Tamim AGEM : a new international macroeconomic modelThis publication sets out the Global Economic Model (GEM), a new multicountry macroeconomic model developed by IMF research department staff, based on an explicit microeconomic framework. The paper explains how GEM differs from its predecessor model Multimod, outlines how its new features can improve IMF policy analysis, and discusses three simulation exercises completed+-+402815430628310ocn036807039book19970.86Bayoumi, Tamim AFinancial integration and real activity+-+552356729526115ocn246926034file20060.59Bayoumi, Tamim AShocking aspects of Canadian labor marketsAnalyzes the flexibility of the Canadian labor market across provinces in both an inter- and intra-national context using macroeconomic data on employment, unemployment, participation, and (for Canada) migration and real wages. Finds that Canadian labor markets respond in a similar manner to their U.S. counterparts and are more flexible than those in major euro area countries. Within Canada, the results indicate that labor markets in Ontario and provinces further west are more flexible, particularly with regard to migration, while those further east are less so2498ocn246924804file20060.59Bayoumi, Tamim AEnergy, the exchange rate, and the economy macroeconomic benefits of Canada's oil sands productionThis paper describes potential benefits from Canada's expanding oil sands production, higher energy exports, and further improvements in the terms of trade. Contrary to the previous Canadian exchange rate literature, this paper finds that both energy and nonenergy commodity prices have an influence on the Canadian dollar, and some upward pressure on the exchange rate would therefore be expected. Model results suggest, however, that the impact on other tradable goods exports is limited24213ocn698585614file20060.59Bayoumi, Tamim AMr Ricardo's great adventure estimating fiscal multipliers in a truly intertemporal modelWe estimate tax multipliers in a "Blanchard-Yaari" consumption model where Ricardian equivalence is broken because the private sector discounts the future at a faster rate than the real rate of interest. The model fits U.S. data since 1955 extremely well-entailing a discount wedge of around 20 percent a year and fiscal multipliers of 0.15-0.4-depending on the permanence of the change in taxes/transfers, and is much superior to one that assumes some consumers are fully Ricardian and others follow simple rules of thumb. The implied high private sector rate of discount has wide implications for policymakers2408ocn535146989file20080.59Swiston, ASpillovers across NAFTAThis paper examines linkages across North America by estimating the size of spillovers from the major regions of the world-- the United States, Euro area, Japan, and the rest of the world-- to Canada and Mexico, and decomposing the impact of these spillovers into trade, commodity price, and financial market channels. For Canada, a one percent shock to U.S. real GDP shifts Canadian real GDP by some 3/4 of a percentage point in the same direction-- with financial spillovers more important than trade in recent decades. Thus, a large proportion of the reduction in Canadian output volatility since the 1980s can be accounted for by the 'Great Moderation' in U.S. growth. Before 1996, domestic volatility in Mexico swamped the contribution of external factors to the business cycle. After 1996, the response of Mexican GDP is 1 1/2 times the size of the U.S. shock-- "when the U.S. sneezes, Mexico catches a cold". These spillovers are transmitted through both trade and financial channels23515ocn174969191book20070.82Klyuev, VladimirNorthern star : Canada's path to economic prosperityRobust GDP growth, declining unemployment, low and stable inflation, and a string of fiscal and current account surpluses: these outcomes in Canada owe much to sound macroeconomic policies, as well as to a favorable external environment. This book focuses on these policies and the economy's salient features, including its close trade integration with the United States, large commodity sector, and substantial decentralization and regional diversity. It outlines what is unique about the Canadian experience and sheds light on policies and philosophies that can be applied in other economies.--Publisher's description+-+196115430622511ocn469097802file20040.59Bayoumi, Tamim AOn impatience and policy effectivenessAn increasing body of evidence suggests that the behavior of the economy has changed in many fundamental ways over the last decades. In particular, greater financial deregulation, larger wealth accumulation, and better policies might have helped lower uncertainty about future income and lengthen private sectors' planning horizon. In an overlapping-generations model, in which individuals discount the future more rapidly than implied by the market rate of interest, we find indeed evidence of a falling degree of impatience, providing empirical support for this hypothesis. The degree of persistenc2218ocn694140999file20090.56Thomas, Alun HToday versus tomorrow the sensitivity of the non-oil current account balance to permanent and current incomeThis paper applies the Permanent Income Model to the non-oil current accounts of the major oil exporters to assess the extent to which national consumption decisions in these countries are made on the basis of permanent versus current income. A test of whether the return on oil wealth and oil balance coefficients sum to unity is accepted for all specifications that adjust the return on wealth for future population changes. For oil-exporting countries outside Africa, around half of the fluctuations in the private sector non-oil balance are driven by considerations of changes in permanent income (the return on oil wealth) rather than current income. By contrast, for the public sector and African countries permanent income has little or no effect2184ocn796678874file20120.56Bhatia, ALeverage? What leverage? A deep dive into the U.S. flow of funds in search of clues to the global crisisThis paper questions the view that leverage should have forewarned us of the global financial crisis of 2007-09, pointing to several gearing indicators that were neither useful portents of the onset of the crisis nor of its ferocity. Instead it shows, first, that the use of ill-suited collateral in the secured funding operations of U.S.-based investment banks was the fatal link between the collapse of structured finance and the global malfunction of funding markets that turbocharged the downdraft; and, second, that this insight (and others) can be decrypted from the Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States1909ocn761815354file20050.56Bayoumi, Tamim ACredit matters empirical evidence on U.S. macro-financial linkagesThis paper develops a framework for analyzing macro-financial linkages in the United States. We estimate the effects of a negative shock to banks' capital/asset ratio on lending standards, which in turn affect consumer credit, mortgages, and corporate loans, and the corresponding components of private spending (consumption, residential investment and business investment). In addition, our empirical model allows for feedback from spending and income to bank capital adequacy and credit. Hence, we trace the full credit cycle. An exogenous fall in the bank capital/asset ratio by one percentage point reduces real GDP by some 1 1/2 percent through its effects on credit availability, while an exogenous fall in demand of 1 percent of GDP is gradually magnified to around 2 percent through financial feedback effects14024ocn042712835book19990.84Bayoumi, Tamim AThe morning after : explaining the slowdown in Japanese growth in the 1990sAbstract: This paper uses a VAR to investigate four possible explanations of the extended slump in Japanese economic activity over the 1990s: the absence of bold and consistent fiscal stimulus; the limited room for expansionary monetary policy due to a liquidity trap; overinvestment and debt overhang; and disruption of financial intermediation. The results indicate that all of these factors played a role, but that the major explanation is disruption in financial intermediation, largely operating through the impact of changes in domestic asset prices on bank lending13926ocn033841802book19950.88Bayoumi, Tamim AIs regionalism simply a diversion? : evidence from the evolution of the EC and EFTAAbstract: This paper considers the impact on trade of preferential arrangements in Europe since the 1950s. Using a first difference version of the gravity model, we find that the EC and EFTA altered the pattern of international trade. We also find evidence of trade diversion in several cases, notably that of the EC in the 1960s11623ocn055084082book20040.88Bayoumi, Tamim ABenefits and spillovers of greater competition in Europe : a macroeconomic assessment"Using a general-equilibrium simulation model featuring nominal rigidities and monopolistic competition in product and labor markets, this paper estimates the macroeconomic benefits and international spillovers of an increase in competition. After calibrating the model to the euro area vs. the rest of the industrial world, the paper draws three conclusions. First, greater competition produces large effects on macroeconomic performance, as measured by standard indicators. In particular, we show that differences in competition can account for over half of the current gap in GDP per capita between the euro area and the US. Second, it may improve macroeconomic management by increasing the responsiveness of wages and prices to market conditions. Third, greater competition can generate positive spillovers to the rest of the world through its impact on the terms of trade"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site1085ocn824513364file20130.47Bayoumi, Tamim AMacroeconomic model spillovers and their discontentsThe Great Recession underlined that policies in some countries can have profound spillovers elsewhere. Sadly, the solution of simulating large macroeconomic models to measure these spillovers has been found wanting. Typical models generate lower international correlations of output and financial asset prices than are seen in even pre-crisis data. Imposing higher financial market correlations creates more reasonable cross-country spillovers, and is likely to become the norm in policy modeling despite weak theoretical underpinnings, as is already true of sticky wages. We propose using event studies to calibrate market reactions to particular policy announcements, and report results for U.S. monetary and fiscal policy announcements in 2009 and 2010 that are plausible and event-specific9910ocn035099060book19960.90Bayoumi, Tamim AR & D spillovers and global growthWe examine the growth promoting roles of R & D, international R & D spillovers, and trade in a world econometric model. A country can raise its total factor productivity by investing in R & D. But countries can also boost their productivity by trading with other countries that have large stocks of knowledge from their cumulative R & D activities. We use a special version of MULTIMOD that incorporates R & D spillovers among industrial countries and from industrial countries to developing countries. Our simulations suggest that R & D, R & D spillovers, and trade play important roles in boosting growth in industrial and developing countries+-+7397016335+-+7397016335Thu Oct 16 15:43:54 EDT 2014batch36291