WorldCat Identities
Thu Oct 16 18:00:20 2014 UTClccn-no930321940.00The Americas edition 2002 /0.870.96The integrated macroeconomic model for poverty analysis : a quantitative macroeconomic framework for the analysis of poverty reduction strategies /62605817no 930321943485653Izquierdo, A. 1964-Izquierdo, José Alejandro 1964-lccn-n88276804Calvo, Guillermo A.lccn-n89620616Agénor, Pierre-Richardedtlccn-n79139286National Bureau of Economic Researchlccn-nb2002043431Jensen, Henning Tarpedtlccn-n95921016Talvi, Ernestolccn-n92008630Morisset, Jacquesnp-mejia, luis fernandoMejía, Luis-Fernandolccn-no96051345Olarreaga, M.(Marcelo)lccn-no2005071077Loo-Kung, Rudylccn-n79043403World BankIzquierdo, Alejandro1964-Case studiesDeveloping countriesPoverty--Econometric modelsUnemployment--Econometric modelsMacroeconomics--Econometric modelsStructural adjustment (Economic policy)--Econometric modelsEconomic policy--Econometric modelsEconomic policyFinancial crises--Econometric modelsArgentinaMacroeconomicsPovertyDepressions--Econometric modelsUnited StatesFiscal policyCapital movementsCapital marketForeign exchange ratesFinancial crisesFinancial statementsInternational tradePrices--Econometric modelsInformation servicesInvestments, ForeignEconomic assistance, DomesticBalance of tradeInternational finance--Econometric modelsTaxationRevenueTax administration and procedureLatin AmericaEconomic historyCaribbean AreaEconomicsBrazilInternational economic relationsMexicoForeign exchangeBalance of paymentsManufacturesForeign exchange rates--Econometric modelsSupply and demandInternational financeUnemploymentDollar, AmericanBusinessEconomic developmentManagementMonetary policyStructural adjustment (Economic policy)Economic assistance, Domestic--Mathematical models1964198319931999200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201384354151331.12042091724HC59.7ocn823857673ocn777029891ocn7997926512389ocn064486676book20060.86Agénor, Pierre-RichardAdjustment policies, poverty, and unemployment : the IMMPA frameworkPierre-Richard Agenor's pioneering work on Integrated Macroeconomics Models for Poverty Analysis (IMMPA) is cataloged for the first time in this must-read volume. A class of dynamic computable general equilibrium models, IMMPA models are designed to analyze the impact of adjustment policies on unemployment and poverty in the developing world. Including both papers originally circulated through the World Bank, as well as new material that places this important work in its larger context, Adjustment Policies, Poverty, and Unemployment details the history and uses of these models to date, as well+-+78818605968016ocn065173615book20060.88Calvo, Guillermo APhoenix miracles in emerging markets recovering without credit from systemic financial crisesAbstract: collapse and recovery phase of output collapses that coincide with systemic sudden stops, defined as periods of skyrocketing aggregate bond spreads and large capital flow reversals. Our findings indicate the presence of a very similar pattern across different episodes: output recovers with virtually no recovery in either domestic or foreign credit, a phenomenon that we call Phoenix Miracle, where output "rises from its ashes", suggesting that firms go through a process of financial engineering to restore liquidity outside the formal credit markets. Moreover, we show that the US Great Depression could be catalogued as a Phoenix Miracle. However, in contrast to the US Great Depression, EM output collapses occur in a context of accelerating price inflation and falling real wages, casting doubts on price deflation and nominal wage rigidity as key elements in explaining output collapse, and suggesting that financial factors are prominent for understanding these collapses699ocn055739602book20040.93Calvo, Guillermo AOn the empirics of sudden stops : the relevance of balance-sheet effects"Using a sample of 32 developed and developing countries we analyze the empirical characteristics of sudden stops in capital flows and the relevance of balance sheet effects in the likelihood of their materialization. We find that large real exchange rate (RER) fluctuations coming hand in hand with Sudden Stops are basically an emerging market (EM) phenomenon. Sudden Stops seem to come in bunches, grouping together countries that are different in many respects. However, countries are similar in that they remain vulnerable to large RER fluctuations be it because they could be forced to large adjustments in the absorption of tradable goods, and/or because the size of dollar liabilities in the banking system (i.e., domestic liability dollarization, or DLD) is high. Openness, understood as a large supply of tradable goods that reduces leverage over the current account deficit, coupled with DLD, are key determinants of the probability of Sudden Stops. The relationship between Openness and DLD in the determination of the probability of Sudden Stops is highly non-linear, implying that the interaction of high current account leverage and high dollarization may be a dangerous cocktail"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site699ocn052863830book20030.93Calvo, Guillermo ASudden stops, the real exchange rate, and fiscal sustainability : Argentina's lessonsAbstract: We offer an alternative explanation for the fall of Argentina's Convertibility Program based on the country's vulnerability to Sudden Stops in capital flows. Sudden Stops are typically accompanied by a substantial increase in the real exchange rate that breaks havoc in countries that are heavily dollarized in their liabilities, turning otherwise sustainable fiscal and corporate sector positions into unsustainable ones. In particular, we stress that the required change in relative prices is larger the more closed an economy is in terms of its supply of tradable goods. By contrasting Argentina's performance relative to other Latin American countries that were also subject to the Sudden Stop triggered by the Russian crisis of 1998, we identify key vulnerability indicators that separated Argentina from its piers. We also provide an explanation for the political maelstrom that ensued after the Sudden Stop, based on a War of Attrition argument related to the wealth redistribution conflict triggered by the Sudden Stop and fiscal collapse. This framework also provides elements to rationalize the banking crisis that accompanied the fall of Convertibility6114ocn052300077book20030.92Izquierdo, AlejandroInformation diffusion in international markets618ocn061196717file20050.93Calvo, Guillermo ARelative price volatility under sudden stops : the relevance of balance sheet effects"Sudden Stops are associated with increased volatility in relative prices. We introduce a model based on information acquisition to rationalize this increased volatility. An empirical analysis of the conditional variance of the wholesale price to consumer price ratio using panel ARCH techniques confirms the relevance of Sudden Stops and potential balance-sheet effects as key determinants of relative-price volatility, where balance-sheet effects are captured by the interaction of a proxy for potential changes in the real exchange rate (linked to the degree of external leverage of the absorption of tradable goods) and a measure of domestic liability dollarization"--NBER website413ocn874231016file20030.47Morisset, JacquesInformation diffusion in international markets398ocn228806538file20080.93Calvo, Guillermo ASystemic sudden stops the relevance of balance-sheet effects and financial integrationUsing a sample of 110 developed and developing countries for the period 1990-2004 we analyze the empirical characteristics of systemic sudden stops (3S) in capital flows --understood as large and largely unexpected capital account contractions that occur in periods of systemic turmoil -- and the relevance of balance sheet effects in the likelihood of their materialization. We conjecture that large real exchange rate (RER) fluctuations come hand in hand with 3S. A small supply of tradable goods relative to their domestic absorption -- a proxy for potential changes in the real exchange rate -- and large foreign-exchange denominated debts towards the domestic banking system, denoted Domestic Liability Dollarization, DLD, are claimed to be key determinants of the probability of 3S, conforming a balance-sheet effect that impacts on the probability of 3S in non-linear fashion. Regarding financial integration, the larger is the latter, the larger is likely to be the probability of Sudden Stop; however, beyond a critical point the relationship gets a sign reversion386ocn053043138book20030.96Agénor, Pierre-RichardThe integrated macroeconomic model for poverty analysis : a quantitative macroeconomic framework for the analysis of poverty reduction strategies315ocn800728283file20120.93Calvo, Guillermo AOptimal holdings of international reserves self-insurance against sudden stopThis paper addresses the issue of the optimal stock of international reserves in terms of a statistical model in which reserves affect both the probability of a Sudden Stop-as well as associated output costs-by reducing the balance-sheet effects of liability dollarization. Optimal reserves are derived under the assumption that central bankers conservatively choose reserves by balancing the expected cost of a Sudden Stop against the opportunity cost of holding reserves. Results are obtained without using calibration to match observed reserves levels, providing no a priori reason for our concept of optimal reserves to be in line with observed holdings. Remarkably, however, observed reserves on the eve of the global financial crisis were-on average-not distant from optimal reserves as derived in this model, indicating that reserve over-accumulation in Emerging Markets was not obvious. However, heterogeneity prevailed across regions: from a precautionary standpoint, Latin America was closest to model-based optimal levels, while reserves in Eastern Europe lay below optimal levels, and those in Asia lay above. Nonetheless, there are other motives for reserve accumulation: we find that differences between observed reserves and precautionary-motive optimal reserves are partly explained by the perceived presence of a lender of last resort, or characteristics such as being a large oil producer. However, to a first approximation, there is no clear evidence supporting the so-called neo-mercantilist motive for reserve accumulation233ocn029356323book19930.96Morisset, JacquesEffects of tax reform on Argentinaʼs revenues106ocn433175569book20060.59Galindo, Arturo JReal exchange rates, dollarization and industrial employment in Latin America73ocn325125262file20090.92Policy trade-offs for unprecedented times confronting the global crisis in Latin America and the CaribbeanThis report was prepared for the Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors of the Inter-American Development Bank held in Medellín, Colombia, in March, 2009. A complementary report, Social and Labor Market Policies for Tumultuous Times: Confronting the Global Crisis in Latin America and the Caribbean, was also prepared by the staff of the Inter-American Development Bank for the same event. Together, these two reports seek to contribute to an understanding of the macroeconomic and social implications of the current crisis on the Latin American and Caribbean region (henceforth "the region"), and the options and risks faced by policymakers in these two critical and inter-related areas52ocn815741727com20010.92Ames, BrianMacroeconomic policy and poverty reductionThis pamphlet excerpts a chapter on macroeconomic policy from the Poverty Reduction Policy Source book, a guide prepared by the World Bank and IMF to assist countries in developing and strengthening their poverty reduction strategies. It probes the relationship between macroeconomic policy matters, such as growth and inflation, and the fight against poverty, and explains how sound monetary and fiscal policies-key tools of the macroeconomist-can help to spur growth and ease poverty+-+726515430652ocn710855702book20110.47One region, two speeds? : Challenges of the new global economic order for Latin America and the CaribbeanCase studiesThe aftermath of the global financial crisis has reshaped world growth and demand patterns, leading to a two-speed recovery, with slow growth in industrial countries and fast growth in emerging markets. This new global scenario is defining a constellation of global macroeconomic conditions that has very different implications for subsets of countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. The report conveys three key messages: first, in this new global economic environment, key structural characteristics of Latin American and Caribbean countries are defining two quite different regional clusters in terms of opportunities and challenges ahead. Second, substantial changes in trade and capital flow patterns, as well as in the international financial architecture, are already taking place and will impact the regional clusters in different ways. Third, economic policy design will have to accommodate these differences in order to ensure widespread and stable growth32ocn830732730com20060.47Real exchange rates, dollarization and industrial employment in Latin AmericaWe use a panel dataset on industrial employment and trade for 9 Latin American countries for which liability dollarization data at the industrial level is available. We test whether real exchange rate fluctuations have a significant impact on employment, and analyze whether the impact varies with the degree of trade openness and liability dollarization. Econometric evidence supports the view that real exchange rate depreciations can impact employment growth positively, but this effect is reversed as liability dollarization increases. In industries with high liability dollarization, the overall impact of a real exchange rate depreciation can be negative. -- Manufacturing employment ; Real exchange rates ; Debt composition ; Balance sheet effects31ocn847255216book2002The Americas edition 200231ocn847679492com20030.47Agénor, Pierre-RichardIntegrated Macroeconomic Model for Poverty Analysis A Quantitative Macroeconomic Framework for the Analysis of Poverty Reduction Strategies33ocn756287420book20090.47Cavallo, Eduardo ADealing with an international credit crunch : policy responses to sudden stops in Latin America31ocn232547959book20080.82All that glitters may not be gold : assessing Latin America's recent macroeconomic performance+-+7881860596+-+7881860596Thu Oct 16 15:14:42 EDT 2014batch22182