WorldCat Identities

Williams, John C.

Overview
Works: 48 works in 120 publications in 2 languages and 227 library holdings
Genres: History  Conference papers and proceedings 
Roles: Author
Classifications: GV1185, 799.32
Publication Timeline
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Most widely held works by John C Williams
Monetary policy with imperfect knowledge by Athanasios Orphanides( Book )

18 editions published between 2005 and 2007 in English and held by 27 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

We examine the performance and robustness properties of monetary policy rules in an estimated macroeconomic model in which the economy undergoes structural change and where private agents and the central bank possess imperfect knowledge about the true structure of the economy. Policymakers follow an interest rate rule aiming to maintain price stability and to minimize fluctuations of unemployment around its natural rate but are uncertain about the economy's natural rates of interest and unemployment and how private agents form expectations. In particular, we consider two models of expectations formation: rational expectations and learning. We show that in this environment the ability to stabilize the real side of the economy is significantly reduced relative to an economy under rational expectations with perfect knowledge. Furthermore, policies that would be optimal under perfect knowledge can perform very poorly if knowledge is imperfect. Efficient policies that take account of private learning and misperceptions of natural rates call for greater policy inertia, a more aggressive response to inflation, and a smaller response to the perceived unemployment gap than would be optimal if everyone had perfect knowledge of the economy. We show that such policies are quite robust to potential misspecification of private sector learning and the magnitude of variation in natural rates
Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge by Athanasios Orphanides( Book )

15 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 21 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"A central tenet of inflation targeting is that establishing and maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations are essential. In this paper, we reexamine the role of key elements of the inflation targeting framework towards this end, in the context of an economy where economic agents have an imperfect understanding of the macroeconomic landscape within which the public forms expectations and policymakers must formulate and implement monetary policy. Using an estimated model of the U.S. economy, we show that monetary policy rules that would perform well under the assumption of rational expectations can perform very poorly when we introduce imperfect knowledge. We then examine the performance of an easily implemented policy rule that incorporates three key characteristics of inflation targeting: transparency, commitment to maintaining price stability, and close monitoring of inflation expectations, and find that all three play an important role in assuring its success. Our analysis suggests that simple difference rules in the spirit of Knut Wicksell excel at tethering inflation expectations to the central bank's goal and in so doing achieve superior stabilization of inflation and economic activity in an environment of imperfect knowledge"--Federal Reserve Board web site
The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty( )

2 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 15 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

We investigate the performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules using five macroeconomic models that reflect a wide range of views on aggregate dynamics. We identify the key characteristics of rules that are robust to model uncertainty: such rules respond to the one-year-ahead inflation forecast and to the current output gap and incorporate a substantial degree of policy inertia. In contrast, rules with longer forecast horizons are less robust and are prone to generating indeterminacy. Finally, we identify a robust benchmark rule that performs very well in all five models over a wide range of policy preferences. Klassifikation: E31, E52, E58, E61
Robustness of simple monetary policy rules under model uncertainty by Andrew T Levin( Book )

6 editions published between 1998 and 2003 in English and held by 12 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

In this paper, we investigate the properties of alternative monetary policy rules using four structural macroeconometric models: the Fuhrer-Moore model, Taylor's Multi-Country Model, the MSR model of Orphanides and Wieland, and the FRB staff model. All four models incorporate the assumptions of rational expectations, short-run nominal inertia, and long-run monetary neutrality, but differ in many other respects (e.g., the dynamics of prices and real expenditures). We compute the output-inflation volatility frontier of each model for alternative specifications of the interest rate rule, subject to an upper bound on nominal interest rate volatility. Our analysis provides strong support for rules in which the first-difference of the federal funds rate responds to the current output gap and the deviaition of the 1-year average inflation rate from a specified target. In all 4 models, first-difference rules perform much better than rules of the type proposed by Taylor (1993) and Henderson and McKibbin (1993), in which the level of the federal funds rate responds to the output gap and inflation deviation fromt target. Furthermore, first-difference rules generate essentially the same policy frontier as more complicated rules (i.e. rules that respond to a larger number of variables and/or additional lags of output and inflation). Finally, this class of rules is robust to model uncertainty, in the sense that a first-difference rule taken from the policy frontier of one model is very close to the policy frontier of each of the other three models. In contrast, more complicated rules are less robust to model uncertainty: rules with additional parameters can be fine-tuned to the dynamics of a specified model, but typically perform poorly in the other models
The responses of wages and prices to technology shocks by Rochelle Mary Edge( Book )

6 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 11 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"This paper reexamines wage and price dynamics in response to permanent shocks to productivity. We estimate a micro-founded dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model of the U.S. economy with sticky wages and sticky prices using impulse responses to technology and monetary policy shocks. We utilize a flexible specification for wage- and price-setting that allows for the sluggish adjustment of both the levels of these variables-as in standard contracting models-as well as intrinsic inertia in wage and price inflation. On the price front, we find that in our VAR inflation jumps in response to an identified permanent technology shock, implying that, on average, prices adjust quickly and that there is little evidence for any intrinsic inflation inertia like that commonly found in models used for monetary policy evaluation. On the wage front, we find evidence for significant inertia in wages and some intrinsic inertia in nominal wage inflation. Our results provide support for the standard sticky-price specification of the New Keynesian model; however, the evidence on the high degree of wage inertia presents a challenge for standard models of wage setting"--Federal Reserve Board web site
Archery for beginners by John C Williams( Book )

2 editions published between 1991 and 1993 in German and held by 10 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

A guide to the latest archery techniques, equipment, and the basics every archer must learn
Robust monetary policy rules with unknown natural rates by Athanasios Orphanides( Book )

7 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 9 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"We examine the performance and robustness properties of alternative monetary policy rules in the presence of structural change that renders the natural rates of interest and unemployment uncertain. Using a forward-looking quarterly model of the U.S. economy, estimated over the 1969-2002 period, we show that the cost of underestimating the extent of misperceptions regarding the natural rates significantly exceeds the costs of overestimating such errors. Naive adoption of policy rules optimized under the false presumption that misperceptions regarding the natural rates are likely to be small proves particularly costly. Our results suggest that a simple and effective approach for dealing with ignorance about the degree of uncertainty in estimates of the natural rates is to adopt difference rules for monetary policy, in which the short-term nominal interest rate is raised or lowered from its existing level in response to inflation and changes in economic activity. These rules do not require knowledge of the natural rates of interest or unemployment for setting policy and are consequently immune to the likely misperceptions in these concepts. To illustrate the differences in outcomes that could be attributed to the alternative policies we also examine the role of misperceptions for the stagflationary experience of the 1970s and the disinflationary boom of the 1990s"--Federal Reserve Board web site
Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth by Rochelle M Edge( Book )

5 editions published in 2004 in English and held by 7 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The decline of activist stabilization policy : natural rate misperceptions, learning and expectations by Athanasios Orphanides( Book )

4 editions published between 2004 and 2005 in English and held by 7 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"We develop an estimated model of the U.S. economy in which agents form expectations by continually updating their beliefs regarding the behavior of the economy and monetary policy. We explore the effects of policymakers' misperceptions of the natural rate of unemployment during the late 1960s and 1970s on the formation of expectations and macroeconomic outcomes. We find that the combination of monetary policy directed at tight stabilization of unemployment near its perceived natural rate and large real-time errors in estimates of the natural rate uprooted heretofore quiescent inflation expectations and destabilized the economy. Had monetary policy reacted less aggressively to perceived unemployment gaps, inflation expectations would have remained anchored and the stagflation of the 1970s would have been avoided. Indeed, we find that less activist policies would have been more effective at stabilizing *both* inflation and unemployment. We argue that policymakers, learning from the experience of the 1970s, eschewed activist policies in favor of policies that concentrated on the achievement of price stability, contributing to the subsequent improvements in macroeconomic performance of the U.S. economy"--Federal Reserve Board web site
Too much of a good thing? : the economics of investment in R & D by Charles I Jones( Book )

3 editions published between 1996 and 1999 in English and held by 6 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Research and development (R&D) is a key determinant of long run productivity and welfare. A central issue is whether a decentralized economy undertakes too little or too much R&D. We develop an endogenous growth model that incorporates parametrically four important distortions to R&D: the surplus appropriability problem, knowledge spillovers, creative destruction, and congestion externalities. We show that our model is consistent with the available evidence on R&D, growth, and markups. Calibrating the model to micro and macro data, we find that the decentralized economy typically underinvests in R&D relative to what is socially optimal. The only exceptions to this conclusion occur when both the congestion externality is extremely strong and the equilibrium real interest rate is very high. These results are robust to reasonable variations in model parameters
Welfare-maximizing monetary policy under parameter uncertainty by Rochelle Mary Edge( )

6 editions published between 2007 and 2008 in English and held by 4 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper examines welfare-maximizing monetary policy in an estimated micro-founded general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy where the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters. Uncertainty about parameters describing preferences and technology implies not only uncertainty about the dynamics of the economy. It also implies uncertainty about the model's utility-based welfare criterion and about the economy's natural rate measures of interest and output. We analyze the characteristics and performance of alternative monetary policy rules given the estimated uncertainty regarding parameter estimates. We find that the natural rates of interest and output are imprecisely estimated. We then show that, relative to the case of known parameters, optimal policy under parameter uncertainty responds less to natural-rate terms and more to other variables, such as price and wage inflation and measures of tightness or slack that do not depend on natural rates
Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy by Athanasios Orphanides( Book )

2 editions published between 2003 and 2005 in English and held by 4 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations, and monetary policy by Athanasios Orphanides( Book )

2 editions published between 2002 and 2003 in English and held by 3 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Abstract: This paper investigates the role that imperfect knowledge about the structure of the economy plays in the formation of expectations, macroeconomic dynamics, and the efficient formulation of monetary policy. Economic agents rely on an adaptive learning technology to form expectations and to update continuously their beliefs regarding the dynamic structure of the economy based on incoming data. The process of perpetual learning introduces an additional layer of dynamic interaction between monetary policy and economic outcomes. We find that policies that would be efficient under rational expectations can perform poorly when knowledge is imperfect. In particular, policies that fail to maintain tight control over inflation are prone to episodes in which the public's expectations of inflation become uncoupled from the policy objective and stagflation results, in a pattern similar to that experienced in the United States during the 1970s. Our results highlight the value of effective communication of a central bank's inflation objective and of continued vigilance against inflation in anchoring inflation expectations and fostering macroeconomic stability
The decline of activist stabilization policy natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations( )

2 editions published between 2003 and 2004 in English and held by 2 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

We develop an estimated model of the U.S. economy in which agents form expectations by continually updating their beliefs regarding the behavior of the economy and monetary policy. We explore the effects of policymakers' misperceptions of the natural rate of unemployment during the late 1960s and 1970s on the formation of expectations and macroeconomic outcomes. We find that the combination of monetary policy directed at tight stabilization of unemployment near its perceived natural rate and large real-time errors in estimates of the natural rate uprooted heretofore quiescent in inflation expectations and destabilized the economy. Had monetary policy reacted less aggressively to perceived unemployment gaps, in inflation expectations would have remained anchored and the stag inflation of the 1970s would have been avoided. Indeed, we find that less activist policies would have been more effective at stabilizing both in inflation and unemployment. We argue that policymakers, learning from the experience of the 1970s, eschewed activist policies in favor of policies that concentrated on the achievement of price stability, contributing to the subsequent improvements in macroeconomic performance of the U.S. economy. Klassifikation: E52
The responses of wages and prices to technology shocks( )

2 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 2 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy( )

2 editions published in 2003 in English and held by 2 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Special issue: Expectations, learning, and monetary policy( Book )

1 edition published in 2005 in English and held by 2 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Imperfect knowledge and the pitfalls of optimal control monetary policy by Athanasios Orphanides( Book )

2 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 1 WorldCat member library worldwide

Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change by John C Williams( )

1 edition published in 2004 in English and held by 0 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

 
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Audience level: 0.81 (from 0.27 for Archery fo ... to 0.98 for Inflation ...)

Alternative Names
Carroll Williams, John 1962-

John C. Williams American banker

Williams, John 1962-

Williams, John Carroll 1962-

ジョン・C・ウィリアムズ

Languages
English (86)

German (2)