WorldCat Identities

Williams, John C. (John Carroll)

Works: 86 works in 372 publications in 2 languages and 1,470 library holdings
Genres: History  Conference papers and proceedings 
Roles: Author
Classifications: HB1, 330.072
Publication Timeline
Most widely held works by John C Williams
Transition dynamics in vintage capital models : explaining the postwar catch-up of Germany and Japan by Simon Gilchrist( Book )

24 editions published between 2001 and 2004 in English and held by 116 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

We consider a neoclassical interpretation of Germany and Japan's rapid postwar growth that relies on a catch-up mechanism through capital accumulation where technology is embodied in new capital goods. Using a putty-clay model of production and investment, we are able to capture many of the key empirical properties of Germany and Japan's postwar transitions, including persistently high but declining rates of labor and total-factor productivity growth, a U-shaped response of the capital-output ratio, rising rates of investment and employment, and moderate rates of return to capital
Lehrbuch des Bogensports by John C Williams( Book )

16 editions published between 1986 and 2014 in German and Undetermined and held by 84 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Schiesssport, Bogenschiessen, Bogen, Krafttraining
Robustness of simple monetary policy rules under model uncertainty by Andrew T Levin( Book )

17 editions published in 1998 in English and held by 84 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

In this paper, we investigate the properties of alternative monetary policy rules using four structural macroeconometric models: the Fuhrer-Moore model, Taylor's Multi-Country Model, the MSR model of Orphanides and Wieland, and the FRB staff model. All four models incorporate the assumptions of rational expectations, short-run nominal inertia, and long-run monetary neutrality, but differ in many other respects (e.g., the dynamics of prices and real expenditures). We compute the output-inflation volatility frontier of each model for alternative specifications of the interest rate rule, subject to an upper bound on nominal interest rate volatility. Our analysis provides strong support for rules in which the first-difference of the federal funds rate responds to the current output gap and the deviaition of the 1-year average inflation rate from a specified target. In all 4 models, first-difference rules perform much better than rules of the type proposed by Taylor (1993) and Henderson and McKibbin (1993), in which the level of the federal funds rate responds to the output gap and inflation deviation fromt target. Furthermore, first-difference rules generate essentially the same policy frontier as more complicated rules (i.e. rules that respond to a larger number of variables and/or additional lags of output and inflation). Finally, this class of rules is robust to model uncertainty, in the sense that a first-difference rule taken from the policy frontier of one model is very close to the policy frontier of each of the other three models. In contrast, more complicated rules are less robust to model uncertainty: rules with additional parameters can be fine-tuned to the dynamics of a specified model, but typically perform poorly in the other models
Putty-clay and investment : a business cycle analysis by Simon Gilchrist( Book )

16 editions published in 1998 in English and held by 82 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with putty-clay technology that incorporates embodied technology, investment irreversibility, and variable capacity utilization. Low short-run capital-labor substitutability native to the putty-clay framework induces the putty-clay effect of a tight link between changes in capacity and movements in employment and output. As a result, persistent shocks to technology or factor prices generate business cycle dynamics absent in standard neoclassical models, including a prolonged lump-shaped response of hours, persistence in output growth, and positive comovement in the forecastable components of output and hours. Capacity constraints result in nonlinear aggregate production function that implies asymmetric responses to large shocks with recessions steeper and deeper than expansions. Minimum distance estimation of a two-sector model that nests putty-clay and neoclassical production technologies supports a significant role for putty-clay capital in explaining business-cycle and medium-run dynamics
Too much of a good thing? : the economics of investment in R & D by Charles I Jones( Book )

19 editions published between 1995 and 1999 in English and held by 81 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Research and development (R&D) is a key determinant of long run productivity and welfare. A central issue is whether a decentralized economy undertakes too little or too much R&D. We develop an endogenous growth model that incorporates parametrically four important distortions to R&D: the surplus appropriability problem, knowledge spillovers, creative destruction, and congestion externalities. We show that our model is consistent with the available evidence on R&D, growth, and markups. Calibrating the model to micro and macro data, we find that the decentralized economy typically underinvests in R&D relative to what is socially optimal. The only exceptions to this conclusion occur when both the congestion externality is extremely strong and the equilibrium real interest rate is very high. These results are robust to reasonable variations in model parameters
Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations, and monetary policy by Athanasios Orphanides( Book )

18 editions published between 2002 and 2003 in English and held by 62 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper investigates the role that imperfect knowledge about the structure of the economy plays in the formation of expectations, macroeconomic dynamics, and the efficient formulation of monetary policy. Economic agents rely on an adaptive learning technology to form expectations and to update continuously their beliefs regarding the dynamic structure of the economy based on incoming data. The process of perpetual learning introduces an additional layer of dynamic interaction between monetary policy and economic outcomes. We find that policies that would be efficient under rational expectations can perform poorly when knowledge is imperfect. In particular, policies that fail to maintain tight control over inflation are prone to episodes in which the public's expectations of inflation become uncoupled from the policy objective and stagflation results, in a pattern similar to that experienced in the United States during the 1970s. Our results highlight the value of effective communication of a central bank's inflation objective and of continued vigilance against inflation in anchoring inflation expectations and fostering macroeconomic stability
Investment, capacity, and uncertainty : a putty-clay approach by Simon Gilchrist( Book )

12 editions published between 2002 and 2004 in English and held by 46 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

We embed the microeconomic decisions associated with investment under uncertainty, capacity utilization, and machine replacement in a general equilibrium model based on putty-clay technology. In the presence of irreversible factor proportions, a mean-preserving spread in the productivity of investment raises aggregate investment, productivity, and output. Increases in uncertainty have important dynamic implications, causing sustained increases in investment and hours and a medium-term expansion in the growth rate of labor productivity
The decline of activist stabilization policy : natural rate misperceptions, learning and expectations by Athanasios Orphanides( Book )

17 editions published between 2004 and 2005 in English and held by 43 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"We develop an estimated model of the U.S. economy in which agents form expectations by continually updating their beliefs regarding the behavior of the economy and monetary policy. We explore the effects of policymakers' misperceptions of the natural rate of unemployment during the late 1960s and 1970s on the formation of expectations and macroeconomic outcomes. We find that the combination of monetary policy directed at tight stabilization of unemployment near its perceived natural rate and large real-time errors in estimates of the natural rate uprooted heretofore quiescent inflation expectations and destabilized the economy. Had monetary policy reacted less aggressively to perceived unemployment gaps, inflation expectations would have remained anchored and the stagflation of the 1970s would have been avoided. Indeed, we find that less activist policies would have been more effective at stabilizing *both* inflation and unemployment. We argue that policymakers, learning from the experience of the 1970s, eschewed activist policies in favor of policies that concentrated on the achievement of price stability, contributing to the subsequent improvements in macroeconomic performance of the U.S. economy"--Federal Reserve Board web site
The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty by Andrew T Levin( Book )

14 editions published between 2001 and 2003 in English and held by 33 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Revealing the secrets of the temple : the value of publishing central bank interest rate projections by Glenn D Rudebusch( Book )

9 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 24 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The modern view of monetary policy stresses its role in shaping the entire yield curve of interest rates in order to achieve various macroeconomic objectives. A crucial element of this process involves guiding financial market expectations of future central bank actions. Recently, a few central banks have started to explicitly signal their future policy intentions to the public, and two of these banks have even begun publishing their internal interest rate projections. We examine the macroeconomic effects of direct revelation of a central bank's expectations about the future path of the policy rate. We show that, in an economy where private agents have imperfect information about the determination of monetary policy, central bank communication of interest rate projections can help shape financial market expectations and may improve macroeconomic performance
A black swan in the money market by John B Taylor( Book )

10 editions published in 2008 in English and held by 23 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

At the center of the financial market crisis of 2007-2008 was a highly unusual jump in spreads between the overnight inter-bank lending rate and term London inter-bank offer rates (Libor). Because many private loans are linked to Libor rates, the sharp increase in these spreads raised the cost of borrowing and interfered with monetary policy. The widening spreads became a major focus of the Federal Reserve, which took several actions -- including the introduction of a new term auction facility (TAF) --- to reduce them. This paper documents these developments and, using a no-arbitrage model of the term structure, tests various explanations, including increased risk and greater liquidity demands, while controlling for expectations of future interest rates. We show that increased counterparty risk between banks contributed to the rise in spreads and find no empirical evidence that the TAF has reduced spreads. The results have implications for monetary policy and financial economics
What's happened to the Phillips curve? by Flint Brayton( Book )

9 editions published in 1999 in English and held by 20 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Monetary policy mistakes and the evolution of inflation expectations by Athanasios Orphanides( Book )

9 editions published between 2010 and 2011 in English and Undetermined and held by 20 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

What monetary policy framework, if adopted by the Federal Reserve, would have avoided the Great Inflation of the 1960s and 1970s? We use counterfactual simulations of an estimated model of the U.S. economy to evaluate alternative monetary policy strategies. We show that policies constructed using modern optimal control techniques aimed at stabilizing inflation, economic activity, and interest rates would have succeeded in achieving a high degree of economic stability as well as price stability only if the Federal Reserve had possessed excellent information regarding the structure of the economy or if it had acted as if it placed relatively low weight on stabilizing the real economy. Neither condition held true. We document that policymakers at the time both had an overly optimistic view of the natural rate of unemployment and put a high priority on achieving full employment. We show that in the presence of realistic informational imperfections and with an emphasis on stabilizing economic activity, an optimal control approach would have failed to keep inflation expectations well anchored, resulting in high and highly volatile inflation during the 1970s. Finally, we show that a strategy of following a robust first-difference policy rule would have been highly effective at stabilizing inflation and unemployment in the presence of informational imperfections. This robust monetary policy rule yields simulated outcomes that are close to those seen during the period of the Great Moderation starting in the mid-1980s
Simple rules for monetary policy by John C Williams( Book )

8 editions published in 1999 in English and held by 20 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge by Athanasios Orphanides( Book )

14 editions published in 2006 in English and held by 20 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"A central tenet of inflation targeting is that establishing and maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations are essential. In this paper, we reexamine the role of key elements of the inflation targeting framework towards this end, in the context of an economy where economic agents have an imperfect understanding of the macroeconomic landscape within which the public forms expectations and policymakers must formulate and implement monetary policy. Using an estimated model of the U.S. economy, we show that monetary policy rules that would perform well under the assumption of rational expectations can perform very poorly when we introduce imperfect knowledge. We then examine the performance of an easily implemented policy rule that incorporates three key characteristics of inflation targeting: transparency, commitment to maintaining price stability, and close monitoring of inflation expectations, and find that all three play an important role in assuring its success. Our analysis suggests that simple difference rules in the spirit of Knut Wicksell excel at tethering inflation expectations to the central bank's goal and in so doing achieve superior stabilization of inflation and economic activity in an environment of imperfect knowledge"--Federal Reserve Board web site
Three lessons for monetary policy in a low inflation era by David L Reifschneider( Book )

8 editions published in 1999 in English and held by 18 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Measuring the social return to R & D by Charles I Jones( Book )

2 editions published in 1997 in English and held by 15 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

Simple and robust rules for monetary policy by John B Taylor( Book )

8 editions published in 2010 in English and held by 9 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

This paper focuses on simple rules for monetary policy which central banks have used in various ways to guide their interest rate decisions. Such rules, which can be evaluated using simulation and optimization techniques, were first derived from research on empirical monetary models with rational expectations and sticky prices built in the 1970s and 1980s. During the past two decades substantial progress has been made in establishing that such rules are robust. They perform well with a variety of newer and more rigorous models and policy evaluation methods. Simple rules are also frequently more robust than fully optimal rules. Important progress has also been made in understanding how to adjust simple rules to deal with measurement error and expectations. Moreover, historical experience has shown that simple rules can work well in the real world in that macroeconomic performance has been better when central bank decisions were described by such rules. The recent financial crisis has not changed these conclusions, but it has stimulated important research on how policy rules should deal with asset bubbles and the zero bound on interest rates. Going forward the crisis has drawn attention to the importance of research on international monetary issues and on the implications of discretionary deviations from policy rules
Monetary policy with imperfect knowledge by Athanasios Orphanides( Book )

5 editions published in 2005 in English and held by 9 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

"We examine the performance and robustness of monetary policy rules when the central bank and the public have imperfect knowledge of the economy and continuously update their estimates of model parameters. We find that versions of the Taylor rule calibrated to perform well under rational expectations with perfect knowledge perform very poorly when agents are learning and the central bank faces uncertainty regarding natural rates. In contrast, difference rules, in which the change in the interest rate is determined by the inflation rate and the change in the unemployment rate, perform well when knowledge is both perfect and imperfect"--Federal Reserve Board web site
Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates by Eric T Swanson( Book )

6 editions published between 2012 and 2014 in English and held by 4 WorldCat member libraries worldwide

The federal funds rate has been at the zero lower bound for over four years, since December 2008. According to standard macroeconomic models, this should have greatly reduced the effectiveness of monetary policy and increased the efficacy of fiscal policy. However, these models also imply that asset prices and private-sector decisions depend on the entire path of expected future short-term interest rates, not just the current level of the overnight rate. Thus, interest rates with a year or more to maturity are arguably more relevant for asset prices and the economy, and it is unclear to what extent those yields have been affected by the zero lower bound. In this paper, we measure the effects of the zero lower bound on interest rates of any maturity by comparing the sensitivity of those interest rates to macroeconomic news when short-term interest rates were very low to that during normal times. We find that yields on Treasury securities with a year or more to maturity were surprisingly responsive to news throughout 2008-10, suggesting that monetary and fiscal policy were likely to have been about as effective as usual during this period. Only beginning in late 2011 does the sensitivity of these yields to news fall closer to zero. We offer two explanations for our findings: First, until late 2011, market participants expected the funds rate to lift off from zero within about four quarters, minimizing the effects of the zero bound on medium- and longer-term yields. Second, the Fed's unconventional policy actions seem to have helped offset the effects of the zero bound on medium- and longer-term rates
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Alternative Names
Carroll Williams, John 1962-

John C. Williams American banker

Williams, John 1962-

Williams, John Carroll.

Williams, John Carroll 1962-


English (224)

German (15)