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The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable 预览资料
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The black swan : the impact of the highly improbable

著者： Nassim Taleb
出版商： New York : Random House, ©2007.
版本/格式： 图书 : 英语 : 1st ed查看所有的版本和格式
提要：
Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.
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文件类型： 书
所有的著者/提供者： Nassim Taleb
ISBN: 9781400063512 1400063515
OCLC号码： 71833470
描述： xxviii, 366 p. : ill. ; 25 cm.
内容： Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia's black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd -- We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? -- Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony -- The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan -- Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans.
责任： Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

摘要：

Examines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.

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