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Academic performance and college dropout : using longitudinal expectations data to estimate a learning model

Author: Todd R Stinebrickner; Ralph Stinebrickner; National Bureau of Economic Research.
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2013.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 18945.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
We estimate a dynamic learning model of the college dropout decision, taking advantage of unique expectations data to greatly reduce our reliance on assumptions that would otherwise be necessary for identification. We find that forty-five percent of the dropout that occurs in the first two years of college can be attributed to what students learn about their about academic performance, but that this type of learning  Read more...
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Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Todd R Stinebrickner; Ralph Stinebrickner; National Bureau of Economic Research.
OCLC Number: 837575332
Notes: Title from http://www.nber.org/papers/18945 viewed April 10, 2013.
"April 2013."
Description: 1 online resource (29, [13] pages) : illustrations.
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 18945.
Responsibility: Todd Stinebrickner, Ralph Stinebrickner.

Abstract:

We estimate a dynamic learning model of the college dropout decision, taking advantage of unique expectations data to greatly reduce our reliance on assumptions that would otherwise be necessary for identification. We find that forty-five percent of the dropout that occurs in the first two years of college can be attributed to what students learn about their about academic performance, but that this type of learning becomes a less important determinant of dropout after the midpoint of college We use our model to quantify the importance of the possible avenues through which poor grade performance could influence dropout. Our simulations show that students who perform poorly tend to learn that staying in school is not worthwhile, not that they fail out or learn that they are more likely (than they previously believed) to fail out in the future. We find that poor performance both substantially decreases the enjoyability of school and substantially influences beliefs about post-college earnings.

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