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An analysis of U.S. fiscal and generational imbalances : who will pay us and how?

Author: Nicoletta Batini; Giovanni Callegari; Julia Guerreiro; International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Department,
Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2011.
Series: IMF working paper, WP/11/72.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : International government publication : EnglishView all editions and formats
Database:WorldCat
Summary:
This paper updates existing measures of the U.S. fiscal gap to include federal laws up to and including the mid-December 2010 federal fiscal stimulus. It then applies the methodology of generational accounting to establish how the burden of adjustment required to attain fiscal sustainability is shared across generations. We find that the U.S. fiscal and generational imbalances are large under plausible parametric  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Batini, Nicoletta.
""An Analysis of U.S. Fiscal and Generational Imbalances: Who Will Pay and How?"".
Washington : International Monetary Fund, ©2011
Material Type: Document, Government publication, International government publication, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Nicoletta Batini; Giovanni Callegari; Julia Guerreiro; International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Department,
ISBN: 9781455237111 1455237116 1455225029 9781455225026 1283565269 9781283565264
OCLC Number: 733760778
Description: 1 online resource (39 pages) : illustrations.
Contents: Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; 1. Evolution of U.S. Federal Public Debt Held by the Public; II. Methodology; A. What is the Fiscal Gap?; B. What Are Generational Accounts?; 2. How Are Generational Accounts Built; 3. Tax Profiles by Age and Sex; 4. Transfer Profiles by Age and Sex; C. Scenarios; 5. Baseline and Optimistic Scenarios; 6. Comparison of Medicare and Social Security Projection, 1995-2010; 7. Path of the Discount Rate Under Different Assumptions on r; 8. Comparison of CPS- and SCF-based Profiles of Individual Income Taxes. 9. Impact of no AMT Indexation to Inflation1. Assumptions About Spending and Revenues Underlying Budget Scenarios; 2. Fiscal Gap; III. Results; A. Fiscal Gap; B. Generational Accounts; 3. Generational Accounts; 4. Generational Accounts Net Tax Rate; C. Generational Impact of Key Recent Reforms of Entitlements; 5. Generational Impact of 2010 Healthcare Reform Provisions; IV. How to Close the Gaps: "Menu of Pain" Under Different Scenarios; 6. Menu of Possible Corrective Measures to Close the Fiscal Gap; 7. Menu of Possible Corrective Measur5es-Impact of Delaying the Implementations. V. Sensitivity AnalysisA. Sensitivity of Results vis-à-vis the Choice of a Time Discount Factor; 8. Impact on Fiscal Gap of Different Real Interest Rate Assumptions; B. Sensitivity to Different Profiles on Individual Income Taxes.; 9. Generational Accounts with CPS- and SCF-Based Profiles; 10. Comparison of Generational Imbalances; VI. Conclusions; A. Detail on the Projection Methodology:; B. Sources and Methodologies used to Built the Relative Age/Sex Profiles of Taxesand Transfers; References; Footnotes.
Series Title: IMF working paper, WP/11/72.
Responsibility: Nicoletta Batini, Giovanni Callegari, and Julia Guerreiro.

Abstract:

This paper updates existing measures of the U.S. fiscal gap to include federal laws up to and including the mid-December 2010 federal fiscal stimulus. It then applies the methodology of generational accounting to establish how the burden of adjustment required to attain fiscal sustainability is shared across generations. We find that the U.S. fiscal and generational imbalances are large under plausible parametric assumptions, and, while not much affected by the financial crisis, they have not improved much by the passing of the Final Healthcare Legislation. We find that, under our baseline scenario, a full elimination of the fiscal and generational imbalances would require all taxes to go up and all transfers to be cut immediately and permanently by 35 percent. A delay in the adjustment makes it more costly.

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