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April 2016 annual reassessment of potential output in Canada

Author: Andrew Agopsowicz; Bank of Canada,
Publisher: Ottawa, Ontario, Canada : Bank of Canada = Banque du Canada, 2016. Ã2016
Series: Staff analytical note (Bank of Canada), 2016-4.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : National government publication : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
This note summarizes the Bank of Canada's 2016 annual reassessment of potential output growth, which is projected to be 1.5 per cent over 2016-18 and 1.6 per cent in 2019-20. This projection is weaker than the one presented in the April 2015 Monetary Policy Report. Substantially softer business investment, largely due to much lower energy prices, causes the growth of trend labour productivity to be weaker. Weak  Read more...
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Material Type: Document, Government publication, National government publication, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Andrew Agopsowicz; Bank of Canada,
OCLC Number: 1003467828
Language Note: Includes abstracts in English and French.
Notes: Distributed by the Government of Canada Depository Services Program (Weekly acquisitions list 2016-18).
"Aãpril 2016."
Description: 1 online resource (iii, 19 pages).
Series Title: Staff analytical note (Bank of Canada), 2016-4.
Responsibility: by Andrew Agopsowicz, Dany Brouillette, Shutao Cao, Natalia Kyui and Pierre St-Amant, Canadian Economic Analysis Department, Bank of Canada.

Abstract:

This note summarizes the Bank of Canada's 2016 annual reassessment of potential output growth, which is projected to be 1.5 per cent over 2016-18 and 1.6 per cent in 2019-20. This projection is weaker than the one presented in the April 2015 Monetary Policy Report. Substantially softer business investment, largely due to much lower energy prices, causes the growth of trend labour productivity to be weaker. Weak business investment is the main negative shock to our projection. As investment picks up and the negative effects of the ongoing economic restructuring dissipate, we expect the growth of trend labour productivity to gradually increase toward its long-term average. Demographic developments are expected to contribute to gradually weaker trend labour input growth, however, which will act as a drag on the growth of potential output. A sensitivity analysis to various assumptions suggests a range for potential output that increases from about 0xb10.3 percentage points in 2016 to 0xb10.6 percentage points in 2018 and 0xb10.7 in 2019 and 2020.

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Primary Entity

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