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Baby busts and baby booms : the fertility response to shocks in dynastic models

Author: Larry E Jones; Alice Schoonbroodt; National Bureau of Economic Research.
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, ©2010.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 16596.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
Economic demographers have long analyzed fertility cycles. This paper builds a foundation for these cycles in a model of fertility choice with dynastic altruism and aggregate shocks. It is shown that under reasonable parameter values, fertility is pro-cyclical and that, following a shock, fertility continues to cycle endogenously as subsequent cohorts enter retirement. Quantitatively, in the model, the Great  Read more...
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Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Jones, Larry E.
Baby busts and baby booms.
Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, ©2010
(DLC) 2011655831
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Larry E Jones; Alice Schoonbroodt; National Bureau of Economic Research.
OCLC Number: 692179644
Description: 1 online resource (39, xi pages) : illustrations.
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 16596.
Responsibility: Larry E. Jones, Alice Schoonbroodt.

Abstract:

Economic demographers have long analyzed fertility cycles. This paper builds a foundation for these cycles in a model of fertility choice with dynastic altruism and aggregate shocks. It is shown that under reasonable parameter values, fertility is pro-cyclical and that, following a shock, fertility continues to cycle endogenously as subsequent cohorts enter retirement. Quantitatively, in the model, the Great Depression generates a large baby bust -- between 38% and 63% of that seen in the U.S. in the 1930s -- which is subsequently followed by a baby boom -- between 53% and 92% of that seen in the U.S. in the 1950s.

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