在线查找
与资料的链接
在图书馆查找
正在查找有这资料的图书馆...
详细书目
| 材料类型: | 互联网资源 |
|---|---|
| 文件类型: | 书, 互联网资源 |
| 所有的著者/提供者: |
Nassim Taleb |
| ISBN: | 9781400063512 1400063515 |
| OCLC号码: | 71833470 |
| 奖励: | Shortlisted for Financial Times/Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year Award 2007. |
| 描述: | xxviii, 366 p. : ill. ; 25 cm. |
| 内容: | Umberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia's black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd -- We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? -- Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony -- The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan -- Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans. |
| 责任: | Nassim Nicholas Taleb. |
摘要:
"A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible.' For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them." -- Book jacket.
标签
相似资料
相关主题:(12)
- Uncertainty (Information theory) -- Social aspects.
- Forecasting.
- Probability.
- Incertitude (Théorie de l'information) -- Aspect social.
- Prévision.
- Teoria da informação (aspectos sociais)
- Ereignis.
- Informationstheorie.
- Prognose.
- Sozialpsychologie.
- Ungewissheit.
- Wahrscheinlichkeit.
这资料的用户列表 (41)
- 2011 New Books at the NEMRT Instructors Library(79 资料)
由 nemrtmtu3 已更新 2012-02-24
- @ KSC(142 资料)
由 jamaral 已更新 大约一天前
- Things I want to read....(166 资料)
由 loenglish 已更新 大约三周前
- Things to Check Out(257 资料)
由 dbonnell 已更新 大约两周前
- Books to Read 1(137 资料)
由 debraspidal 已更新 大约两周前
