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Blindside : how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics

Author: Francis Fukuyama
Publisher: Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution Press, ©2007.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Database:WorldCat
Summary:
"Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Blindside.
Washington, D.C. : Brookings Institution Press, ©2007
(DLC) 2007027757
(OCoLC)156784828
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Francis Fukuyama
ISBN: 9780815729891 0815729898 1281029637 9781281029638
OCLC Number: 173812431
Notes: "An American Interest Book."
Reproduction Notes: Electronic reproduction. [S.l.] : HathiTrust Digital Library, 2010. MiAaHDL
Description: 1 online resource (vi, 198 pages)
Details: Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002.
Contents: The challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama --
Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner --
Cases: looking back --
Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes --
U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz --
Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale --
Cases: looking ahead --
The once and future DARPA / William B. Bonvillian --
Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin --
Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett --
Forecasting --
Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall --
Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert --
Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / M. Mitchell Waldrop --
What could be --
Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook --
Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett --
American scenarios --
A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Ruth Wedgwood, Anne Applebaum, Bernard-Henri Lévy, Josef Joffe, Peter Schwartz, and Francis Fukuyama --
Afterword / Francis Fukuyama --
Notes --
Contributors --
Index.
Other Titles: American interest.
Responsibility: Francis Fukuyama, editor.

Abstract:

A host of catastrophes, natural and otherwise, as well as some pleasant surprises --like the sudden end of the cold war without a shot being fired --have caught governments and societies unprepared  Read more...

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"Fukuyama offers creative thinking about the future." -- ForeWord Magazine, 11/1/2007

 
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