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Business cycle fluctuations, large shocks, and development aid : new evidence

Author: Era Dabla-NorrisCamelia MinoiuLuis-Felipe ZannaInternational Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, and Review Department,International Monetary Fund. Research Department,All authors
Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2010.
Series: IMF working paper, WP/10/240.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Database:WorldCat
Summary:
We examine the cyclical properties of development aid using bilateral data for 22 donors and over 100 recipients during 1970?2005. We find that bilateral aid flows are on average procyclical with respect to business cycles in donor and recipient countries. However, they become countercyclical when recipient countries face large adverse shocks to the terms-of-trade or growth collapses-thus playing an important  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Dabla-Norris, Era.
Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Shocks, and Development Aid: New Evidence.
Washington : International Monetary Fund, ©2010
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Era Dabla-Norris; Camelia Minoiu; Luis-Felipe Zanna; International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, and Review Department,; International Monetary Fund. Research Department,; IMF Institute,
ISBN: 1283560836 9781283560832 9781455215355 145521535X
OCLC Number: 698591377
Description: 1 online resource (39 pages) : color illustrations.
Contents: Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Literature Review; III. Data, Definitions, and Descriptive Statistics; A. Data and Definitions of Aid and Business Cycle Variables; B. Data Exploration: Descriptive Statistics; IV. The Baseline Model and Main Empirical Results; A. The Baseline Model and Estimation Method; B. Aid and the Donor Cycle; C. Aid and the Recipient Cycle; D. Dynamic Effects; E. Aid and Donor-Recipient (Pair-wise) Shocks; V. Extensions and Robustness Analysis; A. Extensions; Aid and the Business Cycle: A Non-linear Relationship. Aid and Donor Public DebtAid and Institutions in Recipient Countries; The Impact of IMF Programs and Other Regressors; B. Robustness Analysis; Gross Aid Flows; Tobit with Random Effects; Accounting for Aid Persistence; Post-Cold War Changes in Aid Regime; VI. Conclusions; Appendix; Figure 1. Bilateral ODA, 1970-2008; Figure 2. Geographical composition of bilateral net ODA, 1970-2007; Table 1. Variable definitions and sources; Table 2. List of countries; Figure 3. Distribution of output gap estimates; Table 3. Summary statistics. Figure 4. Correlation coefficients between the business cycle and aidFigure 5. Yearly probability of a large shock in aid-receiving countries, 1970-2004; Figure 6. Conditional empirical relationship between the donor output gap and aid flows; Table 4. Baseline regressions: Aid flows and the donor cycle; Table 5. Baseline regressions: Aid flows and the donor cycle (large shocks); Table 6. Baseline regressions: Aid flows and the recipient cycle; Table 7. Aid flows and the recipient cycle (large shocks); Table 8. Aid flows and the donor business cycle (dynamic effects). Table 9. Aid flows and the recipient business cycle (dynamic effects)Table 10. Aid flows and simultaneous shocks (contemporaneous effects); Table 11. Aid flows and donor public debt (dynamic effects); Table 12. Aid and institutions in recipient countries; Table 13. Aid flows and the business cycle: Augmented specifications; Table 14. Robustness: Gross aid flows; Table 15. Robustness: Tobit with Random Effects; Table 16. Robustness: Accounting for aid persistence; Table 17. Robustness: Post-Cold War aid regime; References; Footnotes.
Series Title: IMF working paper, WP/10/240.
Responsibility: prepared by Era Dabla-Norris, Camelia Minoiu, and Luis-Felipe Zanna.

Abstract:

We examine the cyclical properties of development aid using bilateral data for 22 donors and over 100 recipients during 1970?2005. We find that bilateral aid flows are on average procyclical with respect to business cycles in donor and recipient countries. However, they become countercyclical when recipient countries face large adverse shocks to the terms-of-trade or growth collapses-thus playing an important cushioning role. Aid outlays contract sharply during severe donor economic downturns; this effect is magnified by higher public debt levels. Additionally, bilateral aid flows are higher in the presence of IMF programs and are more countercyclical for recipient countries with stronger institutions.

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