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Chance, cause, reason; an inquiry into the nature of scientific evidence

Auteur : Arthur W Burks
Éditeur : Chicago, University of Chicago Press [1977]
Édition/format :   Print book : AnglaisVoir toutes les éditions et tous les formats
Base de données :WorldCat
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Format : Livre
Tous les auteurs / collaborateurs : Arthur W Burks
ISBN : 0226080870 9780226080871 0226080889 9780226080888
Numéro OCLC : 1031137
Description : xvi, 694 pages illustrations 24 cm
Contenu : I. Concepts and problems : 1. Questions and answers --
2. Mathematics and empirical science : Logical and empirical statements ; The logical and empirical status of geometry ; The logical modalities --
3. Specifying the meaning of a technical term --
4. Inquiry and argument ; Kinds of logic ; The logic of empirical inquiry --
5. Deductive and inductive arguments : Deductive arguments ; Inductive arguments and probability --
6. Problems and methods : The four main problems of this book ; Theories and models in empirical science ; The methods of this book. II. The calculus of inductive probability : 1. Introduction --
2. The calculus of inductive probability : Axioms ; Truth-functional and modal logic --
3. Some theorems of the calculus of inductive probability : Probability and the logical modalities ; Multiplication principles ; Addition principles --
4. Relative frequency --
5. Bayes' theorem and induction : Bayes' theorem ; Confirmation by repeated experimentation ; The confirmation theorem ; Applications to induction --
6. Unconditional probability. III. Alternative inductive logics and the justification of induction : 1. Three inductive logics --
2. Inductive logics for simple models of reality : Simple models of reality ; Carnap's inductive logics --
Induction and statistical uniformity ; Inductive logics and Bayes' method --
3. Hume's thesis on the justification of induction : Alternative inductive logics and Hume's thesis ; Historical comment ; Speculative character of Hume's thesis --
4. Frequency theories of probability : The frequency theory of empirical probability ; The frequency theory of inductive probability. IV. Probability and action : 1. Introduction --
2. Peirce's pragmatism : The pragmatic principle of meaning ; Sameness of meaning ; Analysis ; The descriptive component ; The normative component ; Probability and pragmatism --
3. The traditional theory of utility : Utility and choice ; Quantitative probabilities and valuations ; Infinite utilities ; Two paradoxes of utility ; Insurance and gambling ; Simple ordering of preferences and uncertainties --
4. The book theorem. V. The pragmatic theory of inductive probability :1. Introduction : Preview ; Historical remarks --
2. The calculus of choice: grammar : The marking game ' Choice and act trees ' Complete sets of trees --
3. The calculus of choice: simple ordering : Marking and logical equivalence axioms ; Simple ordering of preferences ; Simple ordering of uncertainties --
4. The calculus of choice: normal forms : Normal form axiom ; Comparative values ; Comparative probabilities --
5. The calculus of choice: quantitative : Utilities and quantitative probabilities ; Proof of the main theorem ; Savage's axiomatic system --
6. The pragmatic theory of inductive probability : Introduction ; The normative use of the calculus of choice ' Probability statements and logical truth --
7. Closely related theories of inductive probability : The a priori theory ; The personalistic theory. VI. The logic of casual statements as a formal language --
1. Introduction --
2. The structure of the logic of casual statements : Grammar ; Axioms ; Proofs and theorems --
3. An abstract interpretation : Examples ; Modal models ; Logical truth --
4. The mechanical character of a formal language : Arithmetization of a formal language ; Godel's incompleteness theorem ; Machines and algorithms ; Machines and formal language --
5. Some theorems of the logic of casual statements : Derived rules of inference ; Some metatheorems ; Paradoxes of implication. VII. The logic of casual statements as a model of natural language : 1. Introduction --
2. Laws of nature : Laws and theories ; Causal laws --
3. Subjunctives and dispositions : Causal modalities and subjunctives ; Causal dispositions ; Elliptical causal implication --
4. Causality : Causes and effects ; Contravening causes and completeness --
5. Iterated modalities : Change of dispositions ; Comprehensive modal logics. VIII. The dispositional theory of empirical probability : 1. Introduction --
2. A fair coin : Dispositional model of the fair coin hypothesis ; Causal and probabilistic dispositions ; Dispositional models of atomic empirical probability statements --
3. Dispositional models of empirical probability theories : Empirical probability theories ; The dispositional theory of empirical probability ; The positivistic theory of empirical probability --
4. Alternative theories of empirical probability : The frequency theory of empirical probability ; Peirce's dispositional-frequency theory of probability ; The personalisitic account of empirical probability. IX. Cause and chance in space-time systems : 1. Introduction --
2. Space-time systems : Induction and repetition ; Indexical symbols and properties ; Cellular automata ; Local and global laws --
3. Causality in nature : Uniformity of nature ; Determinism ; Near-determinism ; Tychism --
4. Determinism and chance : Embedded systems and probability ; Entropy and randomness ; Determinism and randomness. X. The presupposition theory of induction : 1. Introduction --
2. The epistemological status of causal necessity : Empirical and a priori concepts ; Causal necessity is a priori ; Causal necessity is irreducibly model --
3. Causal models of standard inductive logic : Possible causal systems ; Verification of causal systems --
4. The presupposition theory of induction : The a priori aspect of inductive probability ; Epistemological status of the presuppositions --
5. Historical antecedents : Keynes' principles of induction ; Kant's theory of causality --
6. Summary of the presupposition theory. XI. Chance, cause, and reason : 1. Fundamental concepts ; 2. Questions and answers ; 3. A unified theory of probability, causality, and induction.
Responsabilité : [by] Arthur W. Burks.

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