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Currency and banking crises : the early warnings of distress

Author: Graciela Laura Kaminsky; IMF Institute.
Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, IMF Institute, ©1999.
Series: IMF working paper, WP/99/178.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : International government publication : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
The spectacular collapse of some of the currencies in the crises of the 1990s pales in comparison to the dramatic swings in the public opinion about the affected countries. Overall, the assessment of the financial press and even the economics profession on the affected countries has been on a roller coaster ride, from hailing the status quo in the months preceding the crises to despair about the economic prospects  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Kaminsky, Graciela Laura.
Currency and banking crises.
[Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, IMF Institute, ©1999
(OCoLC)43269394
Material Type: Document, Government publication, International government publication, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Graciela Laura Kaminsky; IMF Institute.
ISBN: 1282020102 9781282020108 9781451904291 1451904290
ISSN:2227-8885
OCLC Number: 646832836
Reproduction Notes: Electronic reproduction. [S.l.] : HathiTrust Digital Library, 2010. MiAaHDL
Description: 1 online resource (38 pages) : illustrations.
Details: Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002.
Series Title: IMF working paper, WP/99/178.
Responsibility: prepared by Graciela L. Kaminsky.

Abstract:

The spectacular collapse of some of the currencies in the crises of the 1990s pales in comparison to the dramatic swings in the public opinion about the affected countries. Overall, the assessment of the financial press and even the economics profession on the affected countries has been on a roller coaster ride, from hailing the status quo in the months preceding the crises to despair about the economic prospects for the countries after the speculative attacks. For example, in January 1992, after five years without realignments, politicians and the financial press were still hailing the monetary and fiscal convergence across countries in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). According to this view, the ten ERM countries were marching happily toward "El Dorado"--The European Monetary Union.2 Eight months later, the ten were down to six, with the Italian lira and the British pound floating freely against the other currencies and the Spanish peseta and the Portuguese escudo with a new central parity. By early 1993, there were only five.3 In fact, in 1993, the peg was de facto abandoned with the enlargement of the bands to 15 percent. Economic analysts, who had been surprised by the force of the attack, were quickly abandoning the prospects of fixed exchange rates for Europe. And history repeated itself. In 1993, after years of struggling against inflation, government deficits, and a regulated economy, Mexico was finally advertised as being in the footsteps of a new era. Indeed, the "new" Mexico was even enshrined by joining the OECD. All those dreams evaporated in 1994 when Mexico faced default, systemic banking failure, and was treated as an outcast in international capital markets. It is now Asia's turn. According to the financial press, in 1996, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand were still the "tigers." In 1997, they were at the brink of bankruptcy, with public opinion, once again, surprised at the degree of distress in these economies.

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