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Deciding to Enter a Monetary Union.

Author: Ruy Lama; Pau Rabanal
Publisher: Washington : International Monetary Fund, 2012.
Series: IMF Working Papers.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
This paper evaluates the role of trade and financial linkages in the decision to enter a monetary union. We estimate a two-country DSGE model for the U.K. economy and the euro area, and use the model to compute the welfare trade-offs from joining the euro. We evaluate two alternative scenarios. In the first one, we consider a reduction of trade costs that occurs after the adoption of a common currency. In the  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Lama, Ruy.
Deciding to Enter a Monetary Union: TheRole of Trade and Financial Linkages.
Washington : International Monetary Fund, ©2012
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Ruy Lama; Pau Rabanal
ISBN: 9781475512250 1475512252
OCLC Number: 870245071
Description: 1 online resource (53 pages).
Contents: Cover; Contents; 1. Introduction; 2. The Model; 2.1 Households, International Assets Markets, and Staggered Wage Setting; 2.2 Firms; 2.3 Closing the Model; 3. Bayesian Estimation; 3.1 Data; 3.2 Model Dynamics and Data Transformations; 3.3 Estimation: Priors and Posteriors; Tables; Table 1 Calibrated Parameters; Table 2 Prior Distributions; Table 3 Posterior Distributions, structural parameters; Table 4 Posterior Distributions, shocks parameters; 4. Policy Analysis: Welfare Gains of Entering a Monetary Union; Table 5 Second Moments; Table 6 Steady State Effects and Welfare Gains. Table 7 Business Cycle Effects and Welfare Gains5. Sensitivity Analysis; 6. Conclusions; Technical Appendix; References; Figures; Figure 1 Monetary Policy Rates in United Kingdom and the Euro Area: 1999-2011; Figure 2 Trade with Euro Area in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom; Figure 3 Risk Premium in France, Italy, Spain the United Kingdom; Figure 4 Impulse Response Functions to 25 basis points increase in UIP Shock; Figure 5 Sensitivity Analysis of Welfare.
Series Title: IMF Working Papers.

Abstract:

This paper evaluates the role of trade and financial linkages in the decision to enter a monetary union. We estimate a two-country DSGE model for the U.K. economy and the euro area, and use the model to compute the welfare trade-offs from joining the euro. We evaluate two alternative scenarios. In the first one, we consider a reduction of trade costs that occurs after the adoption of a common currency. In the second, we introduce interest rate spread shocks of the same magnitude as the ones observed during the recent debt crisis in Europe. The reduction of trade costs generates a net welfare g.

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