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Decision science and social risk management : a comparative evaluation of cost-benefit analysis, decision analysis, and other formal decision-aiding approaches

Author: Miley W Merkhofer
Publisher: Dordrecht ; Boston : D. Reidel ; Norwell, MA, U.S.A. : Sold and distributed in the U.S.A. and Canada by Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1987.
Series: Technology, risk, and society.
Edition/Format:   Print book : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:

Economists, decision analysts, management scientists, and others have long argued that government should take a more scientific approach to decision making.

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Material Type: Internet resource
Document Type: Book, Internet Resource
All Authors / Contributors: Miley W Merkhofer
ISBN: 9027722757 9789027722751
OCLC Number: 14355119
Notes: Includes indexes.
Description: xv, 330 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm.
Contents: 1. Social Risk Management.- Nature of Risk.- Meaning of Risk.- Character of Existing Risks.- Components of the Risk-Generation Process.- Hazards.- Exposures.- Effects.- The Role of Government in Risk Management.- Arguments for Regulation.- Government Roles and Alternatives for Risk Regulation.- Complexity of Social Risk Decision Making.- Limited Knowledge.- Hazards.- Exposures.- Effects.- Impact of Regulatory Actions.- Risk Perception.- Social Consent.- The Existing Risk-Management System.- Participants.- Congress.- Regulatory Agencies.- Courts.- Federal Health and Safety Regulations and Related Government Initiatives.- Balancing Statutes.- Technology-Only Statutes.- Health-Only Statutes.- Executive Orders and Legislative Proposals.- A Taxonomy of Risk Problems.- 2. Decision-Aiding Approaches.- Nature of Decision-Aiding Approaches.- Definition of a Decision-Aiding Approach.- Objective versus Subjective Probability.- Characteristics Common to All Approaches.- Decomposition.- Modeling.- Iteration.- Quantification.- Decision-Making Theories.- Cost-Benefit Theory.- Decision Theory.- Social Choice Theory.- Differences among Decision-Making Theories.- Decision-Aiding Approaches.- Cost-Benefit Analysis Approaches.- Decision Analysis Approaches.- Applied Social Welfare Theory Approaches.- A Comparison of the Procedures Used in Decision-Aiding Approaches.- Specifying and Characterizing Alternatives.- Decision Criteria.- Outcome Variables.- Valuing Outcome Variables.- Market-Based Procedures.- Utility-Based Procedures.- Valuing Human Life.- Valuing Outcomes over Time.- Models.- Models for Characterizing the Source of Risk.- Models for Exposure Processes.- Models for Effects Processes.- Cost Models.- Procedures for Quantifying Uncertainty.- Procedures Adopting an Objective View of Probability.- Procedures Adopting a Subjective View of Probability.- Procedures for Developing Probability Distributions of Decision Outcomes.- Characterizing and Distinguishing Decision-Aiding Approaches.- 3. Criticisms and Limitations of Decision-Aiding Approaches.- Fundamental Criticisms.- Impossibility of Finding a Socially Optimal Decision Rule.- Destruction through Decomposition.- Inherent Incompleteness.- Inability to Account for the Costs of Irreversibility.- Operational Criticisms.- Omissions and Inaccuracies.- Difficulty of Measuring Benefits and Costs.- Assessment, Modeling, and Analysis Bias.- Propensity Toward Interference by the Analyst.- Susceptibility to Manipulation.- Susceptibility to Misuse and Misinterpretation.- Institutional and Political Incompatibilities.- Incompatibility with Principles of Democratic Decision Making.- Incompatibility with Constitutional and Legal Principles.- Incompatibility with Organizational Structure and Processes.- Incompatibility with Social Norms.- Ethical Concerns.- Conflicts with Distributional Equity.- Intergenerational Concerns.- Promotion of Anthropocentric Values.- 4. Comparative Evaluation: Summary and Conclusions.- Criteria for Evaluating Decision-Aiding Approaches.- Role and Professed Value of Approaches.- Evaluation Criteria.- Comparative Evaluation.- Logical Soundness.- Completeness.- Accuracy.- Practicality.- Acceptability.- Selecting a Decision-Aiding Approach.- Concluding Observations and Comments.- Notes.- References.- Appendices: Applications of Decision-Aiding Approaches.- A. A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Mobile-Source Sulfur Oxide Emission Control.- Decision Situation.- Background.- Analysis.- Specification and Characterization of Alternatives.- Decision Criterion.- Outcome Measures.- Estimation of Costs.- Estimation of Benefits.- Impact on Health.- Impact on Visibility.- Valuation of Benefits.- Valuing Health Effects.- Valuing Visibility.- Sensitivity Analysis of Benefit Estimates.- Cost-Benefit Comparison.- Epilogue.- Notes to Appendix A.- References to Appendix A.- B. A Decision Analysis of Alternative Government Policies for Commercial Cryptography.- Decision Situation.- Background.- Analysis.- Specification and Characterization of Alternatives.- Decision Criterion.- Outcome Measures.- Deterministic Analysis.- Decision Model.- Base-Case Model Results and Sensitivity Analysis.- Probabilistic Analysis.- Crypto Product Attractiveness.- Computer-Related Crime Rate.- Social Contingency Scenario.- Tree Analysis.- Solution of the Decision Tree.- Informational Analysis.- Epilogue.- Notes to Appendix B.- References to Appendix B.- C. An Application of Applied Social Welfare Theory to a Space-Mission Planning Decision.- Decision Situation.- Background.- Analysis.- Specification and Characterization of Alternatives.- Decision Criteria.- Rank Sum Collective Choice Formulation.- Nash Bargaining Model Formulation.- Social Welfare Formulation.- Supradecision-Maker Formulation.- Derivation of Science Team Preferences.- Collective Choice Analysis.- Rank Sum Choice Formulation.- Nash Bargaining Model Formulation.- Social Welfare Formulation.- Supradecision-Maker Formulation.- Comparison of Results.- Epilogue.- Notes to Appendix C.- References to Appendix C.- Index of Names.- Index of Subjects.
Series Title: Technology, risk, and society.
Responsibility: Miley W. Merkhofer.

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