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Developing a methodology for risk-informed trade-space analysis in acquisition

Author: Craig A BondLauren A MayerMichael E McMahonJames G KallimaniRicardo R SanchezAll authors
Publisher: Santa Monica, Calif. : RAND Corporation, [2015]
Series: Research report (Rand Corporation), RR-701-A.
Edition/Format:   Print book : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
"This report describes the methodology for risk-informed trade-space analysis developed by the U.S. Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity Risk Integrated Product Team and researchers from the RAND Corporation and the first iteration of the associated Risk-Informed Trade Analysis Model. The framework combines elements of system engineering, production economics, and risk analysis to functionally and  Read more...
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Details

Material Type: Internet resource
Document Type: Book, Internet Resource
All Authors / Contributors: Craig A Bond; Lauren A Mayer; Michael E McMahon; James G Kallimani; Ricardo R Sanchez; Arroyo Center,; Rand Corporation,
ISBN: 9780833087645 0833087649
OCLC Number: 908701414
Notes: "RR-701-A"--Page 4 of cover.
Series from web site.
"Arroyo Center."
"Prepared for the United States Army."
Description: xxi, 162 pages : illustrations (chiefly color) ; 23 cm.
Contents: Introduction --
Current cost, schedule, and performance risk methodologies within the Army --
Theoretical framework for risk-informed trade-space analysis --
Proposed conceptual model of risk-informed trade-space analysis in the acquisition of weapon systems --
The model --
An example application of the risk-informed trade analysis model using a demonstration tool --
Conclusions.
Series Title: Research report (Rand Corporation), RR-701-A.
Responsibility: Craig A. Bond, Lauren A. Mayer, Michael E. McMahon, James G. Kallimani, Ricardo Sanchez.

Abstract:

"This report describes the methodology for risk-informed trade-space analysis developed by the U.S. Army Materiel Systems Analysis Activity Risk Integrated Product Team and researchers from the RAND Corporation and the first iteration of the associated Risk-Informed Trade Analysis Model. The framework combines elements of system engineering, production economics, and risk analysis to functionally and probabilistically relate performance, schedule, and cost outcomes and their uncertainties holistically and understandably. The technology development process is conceptualized as one in which the physical system is described as a portfolio of technologies with associated technical capabilities, and the completion of each technology's development is a discrete random variable. The performance characteristics of the final system are stochastic. In addition, the time of technology development is also stochastic and, in part, drives the overall cost of the system. In a departure from previous analyses, the authors incorporate technology-specific courses of action, or risk-mitigation behaviors, that are assumed to take place in the event that the technology is not developed at the milestone date. For example, one might assume that a lesser-performing but existing substitute could replace a particular developmental technology or that, if that technology is of critical importance, the schedule might be allowed to slip. Through analysis of alternative courses of action and their effects on the resultant probability distributions estimated for performance, schedule, and cost, decisionmakers have a means to understand the implications of certain risk-mitigating actions. Technology, schedule, and cost trades can be examined between or within individual systems"--Publisher's web site.

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