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Economic growth, education, and AIDS in Kenya : a long-run analysis

Author: Clive Bell; Ramona Bruhns; Hans Gersbach
Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] : World Bank, Development Economics, Office of the Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, [2006]
Series: Policy research working papers, 4025.
Edition/Format:   Print book : International government publication : EnglishView all editions and formats
Database:WorldCat
Summary:
The AIDS epidemic threatens Kenya with a long wave of premature adult mortality, and thus with an enduring setback to the formation of human capital and economic growth. To investigate this possibility, the authors develop a model with three overlapping generations, calibrate it to the demographic and economic series from 1950 until 1990, and then perform simulations for the period ending in 2050 under alternative  Read more...
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Additional Physical Format: Online version:
Bell, Clive, 1943-
Economic growth, education, and AIDS in Kenya.
[Washington, D.C.] : World Bank, Development Economics, Office of the Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, [2006]
(OCoLC)646865137
Material Type: Government publication, International government publication, Internet resource
Document Type: Book, Internet Resource
All Authors / Contributors: Clive Bell; Ramona Bruhns; Hans Gersbach
OCLC Number: 76894639
Notes: "October 2006"--Cover.
At head of title: Background paper to the 2007 World development report.
Description: 47 pages : illustrations ; 28 cm.
Series Title: Policy research working papers, 4025.
Responsibility: Clive Bell, Ramona Bruhns, and Hans Gersbach.

Abstract:

The AIDS epidemic threatens Kenya with a long wave of premature adult mortality, and thus with an enduring setback to the formation of human capital and economic growth. To investigate this possibility, the authors develop a model with three overlapping generations, calibrate it to the demographic and economic series from 1950 until 1990, and then perform simulations for the period ending in 2050 under alternative assumptions about demographic developments, including the counterfactual in which there is no epidemic. Although AIDS does not bring about a catastrophic economic collapse, it does cause large economic costs-and many deaths. Programs that subsidize post-primary education and combat the epidemic are both socially profitable-the latter strikingly so, due to its indirect effects on the expected returns to education-and a combination of the two interventions profits from a modest long-run synergy effect.

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