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The emergence of peer competitors : a framework of analysis

Author: Thomas S Szayna; United States. Army.; Arroyo Center.
Publisher: Santa Monica, CA : Rand, 2001.
Series: [MR/Rand Corporation, MR-1346-A
Edition/Format:   Print book : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
"The potential emergence of a peer competitor is probably the most important long-term planning challenge for the Department of Defense. This report addresses the issue by developing a conceptual framework of how a proto-peer (meaning a state that is not yet a peer but has the potential to become one) might interact with the hegemon (the dominant global power). The central aspect of the framework is an interaction  Read more...
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Material Type: Internet resource
Document Type: Book, Internet Resource
All Authors / Contributors: Thomas S Szayna; United States. Army.; Arroyo Center.
ISBN: 0833030566 9780833030566
OCLC Number: 47705521
Notes: "MR-1346."
"Prepared for the United States Army."
"Arroyo Center."
Description: xvii, 171 pages : illustrations ; 23 cm
Contents: The Rise of a Peer --
Power --
Motivations --
Global Scale --
Outcome in Doubt --
The Proto-Peer's Strategies --
The Reform Strategy --
Characteristics --
Policies and Institutions --
The Nature of the Challenge --
The Revolution Strategy --
Characteristics of Political Revolutions --
Characteristics of Military Revolutions --
The Alliance Strategy --
Characteristics --
The Nature of the Threat --
The Conquest Strategy --
Characteristics --
The Nature of the Challenge --
Does Conquest Still Pay? --
The Role of the Hegemon --
The Hierarchy in the International State System --
The Hegemon's Problem --
The Hegemon's Strategies --
The Conciliate Strategy --
The Co-opt Strategy --
The Constrain Strategy --
The Compete Strategy --
The Effect of Power Preponderance --
Principal Rivalries --
Modeling the Peer-Hegemon Relationship --
The Decision Calculus --
Modeling the Interaction Between a Proto-Peer and a Hegemon --
Effect of Perceptual Errors --
Identifying the Attributes that Lead to Competition and Rivalry --
Final Observations and Caveats Regarding the Model --
Further Development of the Model --
Decision Rules --
Code for the Prototype Hegemon-Peer Model --
The Democratic Peace Idea.
Series Title: [MR/Rand Corporation, MR-1346-A
Responsibility: Thomas S. Szayna [and others].

Abstract:

"The potential emergence of a peer competitor is probably the most important long-term planning challenge for the Department of Defense. This report addresses the issue by developing a conceptual framework of how a proto-peer (meaning a state that is not yet a peer but has the potential to become one) might interact with the hegemon (the dominant global power). The central aspect of the framework is an interaction between the main strategies for power aggregation available to the proto-peer and the main strategies for countering the rise of a peer available to the hegemon. Then, using exploratory modeling techniques, the pathways of the various proto-peer and hegemon interactions are modeled to identify the specific patterns and combinations of actions that might lead to rivalries. The dominant power has an array of options available to limit the growth of its rivals or to change their ultimate intentions. Too confrontational a strategy, however, risks making a potential neutral power into a foe, while too conciliatory a stance may speed the growth of a competitor. Exploratory modeling suggests which attributes of the countries are most important and the sensitivity of the dominant power to perception errors."--Rand abstracts.

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