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Estimating the effect of currency unions on trade and output

Author: Jeffrey A Frankel; Andrew K Rose; National Bureau of Economic Research.
Publisher: Cambridge, MA. : National Bureau of Economic Research, ©2000.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), working paper no. 7857.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
Abstract: Gravity-based cross-sectional evidence indicates that currency unions stimulate trade; cross-sectional evidence indicates that trade stimulates output. This paper estimates the effect that currency union has, via trade, on output per capita. We use economic and geographic data for over 200 countries to quantify the implications of currency unions for trade and output, pursuing a two-state approach. Our  Read more...
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Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Frankel, Jeffrey A.
Estimating the effect of currency unions on trade and output.
Cambridge, MA. : National Bureau of Economic Research, ©2000
(OCoLC)45097240
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Jeffrey A Frankel; Andrew K Rose; National Bureau of Economic Research.
OCLC Number: 647257913
Reproduction Notes: Electronic reproduction. [S.l.] : HathiTrust Digital Library, 2010. MiAaHDL
Description: 1 online resource (50 pages).
Details: Master and use copy. Digital master created according to Benchmark for Faithful Digital Reproductions of Monographs and Serials, Version 1. Digital Library Federation, December 2002.
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), working paper no. 7857.
Other Titles: Effect of currency unions on trade and output
Responsibility: Jeffrey A. Frankel, Andrew K. Rose.

Abstract:

Abstract: Gravity-based cross-sectional evidence indicates that currency unions stimulate trade; cross-sectional evidence indicates that trade stimulates output. This paper estimates the effect that currency union has, via trade, on output per capita. We use economic and geographic data for over 200 countries to quantify the implications of currency unions for trade and output, pursuing a two-state approach. Our estimates at the first stage suggest that belonging to a currency union more than triples trade with the other members of the zone. Moreover, there is no evidence of trade-diversion. Our estimates at the second stage suggest that every one percent increase in trade (relative to GDP) raises income per capita by roughly 1/3 of a percent over twenty years. We combine the two estimates to quantify the effect of currency union on output. Our results support the hypothesis that the beneficial effects of currency unions on economic performance come through the promotion of trade, rather than through a commitment to non-inflationary monetary policy, or other macroeconomic influences.

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