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Evaluation of exchange-rate, capital market, and dollarization regiimes in the presence of sudden stops

Author: Assaf Razin; Yona Rubinstein; National Bureau of Economic Research.
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, ©2005.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), working paper no. 11131.
Edition/Format:   Print book : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
"The literature has not being able to identify clear-cut real effects of exchange-rate regimes on output growth. Similarly, no definitive view emerges from the literature in regard to the effects of open capital markets on macroeconomic performance. The paper attributes the failure of the literature to fundamental flaws, consisting of ignoring non-linearities in the effects of exchange rate and capital-market  Read more...
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Additional Physical Format: Online version:
Razin, Assaf.
Evaluation of exchange-rate, capital market, and dollarization regiimes in the presence of sudden stops.
Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, ©2005
(OCoLC)647556852
Material Type: Internet resource
Document Type: Book, Internet Resource
All Authors / Contributors: Assaf Razin; Yona Rubinstein; National Bureau of Economic Research.
OCLC Number: 58532221
Notes: "February 2005."
Description: 27, [14] pages : illustrations ; 22 cm.
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), working paper no. 11131.
Responsibility: Assaf Razin, Yona Rubinstein.

Abstract:

"The literature has not being able to identify clear-cut real effects of exchange-rate regimes on output growth. Similarly, no definitive view emerges from the literature in regard to the effects of open capital markets on macroeconomic performance. The paper attributes the failure of the literature to fundamental flaws, consisting of ignoring non-linearities in the effects of exchange rate and capital-market liberalization regimes, on the macroeconomic performance. The paper develops a methodology consisting of accounting for the "crisis-prone state of the economy", summarized by a projected probability of crisis, due to sudden stops in international capital inflows. We apply the new methodology to a cross-country panel of 100 low and middle-income countries. Findings indicate that the effects of exchange rate regimes, and liberalization regimes, on macroeconomic performance go through two distinct channels: a direct channel via the real side of the economy, and an indirect channel via the financial side, which influences the probability of sudden stops. We also analyze how the projected probability of sudden stops affects the level of dollarization, and provide estimates for the effect of dollarization on growth"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

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