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Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries.

Author: Era Dabla-Norris; Yasemin Bal-Gunduz
Publisher: Washington : International Monetary Fund, 2012.
Series: IMF Working Papers.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. The results show that vulnerabilities to a  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Dabla-Norris, Era.
Exogenous Shocks and Growth Crises in Low-Income Countries: A Vulnerability Index.
Washington : International Monetary Fund, ©2012
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Era Dabla-Norris; Yasemin Bal-Gunduz
ISBN: 9781475548839 1475548834
OCLC Number: 867927976
Description: 1 online resource (42 pages).
Contents: Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Literature Review; III. Methodology; IV. Empirical Analysis: Econometric Approach; A. Probit Model; B. Estimation Results: Benchmark Probit Specifications; V. Empirical Analysis: Signaling Approach; A. Methodology: Signaling Approach; B. Results: Signaling Approach; C. Assessment of Vulnerabilities since 1990s; VI. Concluding Remarks; References; Figures; 1. Identification of External Shock Episodes; 2. Distribution of Real GDP per capita: Crises versus Normal Episodes; 3. Effects of Explanatory Variables on Predicted Probability of Growth Crises. 4. Predicted Probability of Growth Crises: Performance of the Vulnerability Index and its Sub-Components5. Marginal Effects of Sub-components on Predicted Probability of Growth Crises; 6. Growth Decline Vulnerability Index; 7. Vulnerability Index and its Components; Appendix Figure; 1. Flags Raised by Selected Indicators of the Vulnerability Index; Tables; 1. Median Real GDP per capita Growth; 2. Probability of Growth Crisis; 3. Benchmark Regression: Average and Conditional Marginal Effects; 4. Marginal Effects of Explanatory Variables on Crisis Probability; 5. Predicted Probabilities. 6. Non-parametric Signaling Approach: Performance of Indicators and Model Fit7. Distribution of Predicted Probabilities: Vulnerability Index versus its Sub-components; 8. Vulnerability Index; Appendix Tables; 1. Correlation Matrix for Exogenous Shocks (1990-2008); 2. List of Countries in the Sample; 3. Variables Used in the Probit Regressions and the Signalling Approach; 4. Distribution of Explanatory Variables (1990-2009); 5. Robustness Check with Alternative Specifications: All Growth Crisis Events.
Series Title: IMF Working Papers.

Abstract:

This paper develops a new index which provides early warning signals of a growth crisis in the event of large external shocks in low-income countries. Multivariate regression analysis and a univariate signaling approach are used to map information from a parsimonious set of underlying policy, structural, and institutional indicators into a composite vulnerability index. The results show that vulnerabilities to a growth crisis in low-income countries declined significantly from their peaks in the early 1990s, but have risen in recent years as fiscal policy buffers were expended in the wake of t.

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