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Expert political judgment : how good is it? How can we know?

Author: Philip E Tetlock
Publisher: Princeton, N.J. : Princeton University Press, 2005.
Series: Princeton paperbacks
Edition/Format:   Print book : EnglishView all editions and formats
Database:WorldCat
Summary:
"The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts." "Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people  Read more...
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Material Type: Internet resource
Document Type: Book, Internet Resource
All Authors / Contributors: Philip E Tetlock
ISBN: 0691123020 9780691123028 9780691128719 0691128715
OCLC Number: 56825108
Awards: Winner of American Political Science Association: Woodrow Wilson Foundation Award 2006.
Description: xvi, 321 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm.
Contents: Quantifying the unquantifiable --
The ego-deflating challenge of radical skepticism --
Knowing the limits of one's knowledge: foxes have better calibration and discrimination scores than hedgehogs --
Honoring reputational bets: foxes are better Bayesians than hedgehogs --
Contemplating counterfactuals: foxes are more willing than hedgehogs to entertain self-subversive scenarios --
The hedgehogs strike back --
Are we open-minded enough to acknowledge the limits of open-mindedness? --
Exploring the limits on objectivity and accountability.
Series Title: Princeton paperbacks
Responsibility: Philip E. Tetlock.
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Abstract:

The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. It explores what  Read more...

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Winner of the 2006 Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order Winner of the 2006 Woodrow Wilson Foundation Award, American Political Science Association Winner of the 2006 Robert E. Lane Award, Read more...

 
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