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Explaining the favorite-longshot bias : is it risk-love or misperceptions?

Author: Erik Snowberg; Justin Wolfers; National Bureau of Economic Research.
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, ©2010.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 15923.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Database:WorldCat
Summary:
The favorite-longshot bias describes the longstanding empirical regularity that betting odds provide biased estimates of the probability of a horse winning--longshots are overbet, while favorites are underbet. Neoclassical explanations of this phenomenon focus on rational gamblers who overbet longshots due to risk-love. The competing behavioral explanations emphasize the role of misperceptions of probabilities. We  Read more...
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Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Snowberg, Erik.
Explaining the favorite-longshot bias.
Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, ©2010
(DLC) 2010655968
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Erik Snowberg; Justin Wolfers; National Bureau of Economic Research.
OCLC Number: 609896850
Description: 1 online resource (27 pages) : illustrations.
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 15923.
Responsibility: Erik Snowberg, Justin Wolfers.

Abstract:

The favorite-longshot bias describes the longstanding empirical regularity that betting odds provide biased estimates of the probability of a horse winning--longshots are overbet, while favorites are underbet. Neoclassical explanations of this phenomenon focus on rational gamblers who overbet longshots due to risk-love. The competing behavioral explanations emphasize the role of misperceptions of probabilities. We provide novel empirical tests that can discriminate between these competing theories by assessing whether the models that explain gamblers' choices in one part of their choice set (betting to win) can also rationalize decisions over a wider choice set, including compound bets in the exacta, quinella or trifecta pools. Using a new, large-scale dataset ideally suited to implement these tests we find evidence in favor of the view that misperceptions of probability drive the favorite-longshot bias, as suggested by Prospect Theory.

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