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Federal transfer multipliers : quasi-experimental evidence from Brazil

Author: Raphael Corbi; Elias Papaioannou; Paolo Surico; National Bureau of Economic Research,
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2014.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 20751.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
According to Brazilian law, federal transfers to municipal governments change discontinuously at numerous predetermined population thresholds. We employ a 'fuzzy' regression discontinuity design to identify the causal effect of federal transfers on local economic activity. The analysis points to local fiscal multipliers between 1.4 and 1.8 across a range of specifications that control for fixed municipal  Read more...
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Details

Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Raphael Corbi; Elias Papaioannou; Paolo Surico; National Bureau of Economic Research,
OCLC Number: 900606969
Notes: "December 2014"
Description: 1 online resource (44 pages, 12 unnumbered pages, 18 pages, 46 unnumbered pages) : illustrations, maps.
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 20751.
Responsibility: Raphael Corbi, Elias Papaioannou, Paolo Surico.

Abstract:

According to Brazilian law, federal transfers to municipal governments change discontinuously at numerous predetermined population thresholds. We employ a 'fuzzy' regression discontinuity design to identify the causal effect of federal transfers on local economic activity. The analysis points to local fiscal multipliers between 1.4 and 1.8 across a range of specifications that control for fixed municipal characteristics, national business cycle and monetary policy. In line with the predictions of a currency union model, transfers from the federal government tend to be more effective for municipalities in states less open to trade and in areas where financial constraints are likely to be tighter.

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