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Fooled by randomness : the hidden role of chance in life and in the markets

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: New York : Random House, 2005.
Edition/Format:   Book : English : 2nd ed., updatedView all editions and formats
Database:WorldCat
Summary:
This work has shaken Wall Street thanks to its contention that much of what people perceive as skill playing the markets is often nothing more than luck.
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Material Type: Internet resource
Document Type: Book, Internet Resource
All Authors / Contributors: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
ISBN: 9781400067930 1400067936 0812975219 9780812975215
OCLC Number: 60349198
Notes: Originally published: New York : Thomson/Texere, 2004.
Description: xix, 316 pages ; 24 cm
Contents: pt. I: Solon's warning : skewness, asymmetry, induction. If you're so rich, why aren't you so smart? ; A bizarre accounting method ; A mathematical mediation on history ; Randomness, nonsense, and the scientific intellectual ; Survival of the least fit : can evolution be fooled by randomness? ; Skewness and asymmetry ; The problem of induction --
pt. II. Monkeys on typewriters : survivorship and other biases. Too many millionaires next door ; It is easier to buy and sell than fry an egg ; Loser takes all : on the nonlinearities of life ; Randomness and our mind : we are probability blind --
pt. III. Wax in my ears : living with randomitis. Gamblers' ticks and pigeons in a box --
Carneades comes to Rome : on probability and skepticism --
Bacchus abandons Antony --
Epilogue: Solon told you so. Preface --
Acknowledgments for the updated second edition --
Chapter summaries --
Prologue --
pt. I. Solon's warning : skewness, asymmetry, induction --
1. If you're so rich, why aren't you so smart? --
Nero Tulip --
Hit by lightning --
Temporary sanity --
Modus operandi --
No work ethics --
There are always secrets --
John the high-yield trader --
An overpaid hick --
The red-hot summer --
Serotonin and randomness --
You dentist is rich, very rich --
2. A bizarre accounting method --
Alternative history --
Russian roulette --
Possible worlds --
An even more vicious roulette --
Smooth peer relations --
Salvation via aeroflot --
Solon visits Regine's nightclub --
George Will is no Solon : on counterintuitive truths --
Humiliated in debates --
A different kind of earthquake --
Proverbs galore --
Risk managers --
Epiphenomena --
3. A mathematical mediation on history --
Europlayboy mathematics --
The tools --
Monte Carlo mathematics --
Fun in my attic --
Making history --
Zorglubs crowding the attic --
Denigration of history --
The stove is hot --
Skills in predicting past history --
My Solon --
Distilled thinking on your PalmPilot --
Breaking news --
Shiller redux --
Gerontocracy --
Philostratus in Monte Carlo : on the difference between noise and information --
4. Randomness, nonsense, and the scientific intellectual --
Randomness and the verb --
Reverse turing test --
The father of all pseudothinkers --
Monte Carlo poetry --
5. Survival of the least fit, can evolution be fooled by randomness? --
Carlos the emerging-markets wizard --
The good years --
Averaging down --
Lines in the sand --
John the high-yield trader --
The quant who knew computers and equations --
The traits they shared --
A review of market fools of randomness constants --
Naive evolutionary theories --
Can evolution be fooled by randomness? --
6. Skewness and asymmetry --
The median is not the message --
Bull and bear zoology --
An arrogant twenty-nine-year-old son --
Rare events --
Symmetry and science --
Almost everybody is above average --
The rare-event fallacy --
The mother of all deceptions --
Why don't statisticians detect rare events? --
A mischievous child replaces the black balls --
7. The problem of induction --
From Bacon to Hume --
Cygnus Stratus --
Nordhoff's --
Sir Karl's promoting agent --
Location, location --
Popper's answer --
Open society --
Nobody is perfect --
Induction and memory --
Pascal's wager --
Thank you, Solon. pt. II. Monkeys on typewriters : survivorship and other biases --
It depends on the number of monkeys --
Vicious real life --
This section --
8. Too many millionaires next door --
How to stop the sting of failure --
Somewhat happy --
Too much work --
You're a failure --
Double survivorship biases --
More experts --
Visibility winners --
It's a bull market --
A guru's opinion --
9. It is easier to buy and sell than fry an egg --
Fooled by numbers --
Placebo investors --
Nobody has to be competent --
Regression to the mean --
Ergodicity --
Life is coincidental --
The mysterious letter --
An interrupted tennis game --
Reverse survivors --
The birthday paradox --
It's a small world! --
Data mining, statistics, and charlatanism --
The best book I have ever read! --
The backtester --
A more unsettling extension --
The earnings season : fooled by the results --
Comparative luck --
Cancer cures --
Professor Pearson goes to Monte Carlo (literally) : randomness does not look random! --
The dog that did not bark : on biases in scientific knowledge --
I have no conclusion --
10. Loser takes all, on the nonlinearities of life --
The sandpile effect --
Enter randomness --
Learning to type --
Mathematics inside and outside the real world --
The science of networks --
Our brain --
Buridan's donkey or the good side of randomness --
When it rains, it pours --
11. Randomness and our mind : we are probability blind --
Paris or the Bahamas? --
Some architectural considerations --
Beware the philosopher bureaucrat --
Satisficing --
Flawed, not just imperfect --
Kahneman and Tversky --
Where is Napoleon when we need him? --
"I'm as good as my last trade" and other heuristics --
Degree in a fortune cookie --
Two systems of reasoning --
Why we don't marry the first date --
Our natural habitat --
Fast and frugal --
Neurobiologists too --
Kafka in a courtroom --
An absurd world --
Examples of biases in understanding probability --
We are option blind --
Probabilities and the media (more journalists) --
CNBC at lunchtime --
You should be dead by now --
The Bloomberg explanations --
Filtering methods --
We do not understand confidence levels --
An admission. pt. III. Wax in my ears : living with randomitis --
I am not so intelligent --
Wittgenstein's ruler --
The Odyssean mute command --
12. Gamblers' ticks and pigeons in a box --
Taxi-cab English and causality --
The Skinner pigeon experiment --
Philostratus redux --
13. Carneades comes to Rome : on probability and skepticism --
Carneades comes to Rome --
Probability, the child of skepticism --
Monsieur de Norpois' opinions --
Path dependence of beliefs --
Computing instead of thinking --
From funeral to funeral --
14. Bacchus abandons Antony --
Notes on Jackie O.'s funeral --
Randomness and personal elegance --
Epilogue. Solon told you so --
Beware the London traffic jams --
Postscript. Three afterthoughts in the shower --
First thought : the inverse skills problem --
Second though : on some additional benefits of randomness --
Uncertainty and happiness --
The scrambling of messages --
Third thought : standing on one leg --
Acknowledgments for the first edition --
A trip to the library : notes and reading recommendations --
Notes --
References --
Index.
Responsibility: Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
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Abstract:

This work has shaken Wall Street thanks to its contention that much of what people perceive as skill playing the markets is often nothing more than luck.

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schema:description"pt. II. Monkeys on typewriters : survivorship and other biases -- It depends on the number of monkeys -- Vicious real life -- This section -- 8. Too many millionaires next door -- How to stop the sting of failure -- Somewhat happy -- Too much work -- You're a failure -- Double survivorship biases -- More experts -- Visibility winners -- It's a bull market -- A guru's opinion -- 9. It is easier to buy and sell than fry an egg -- Fooled by numbers -- Placebo investors -- Nobody has to be competent -- Regression to the mean -- Ergodicity -- Life is coincidental -- The mysterious letter -- An interrupted tennis game -- Reverse survivors -- The birthday paradox -- It's a small world! -- Data mining, statistics, and charlatanism -- The best book I have ever read! -- The backtester -- A more unsettling extension -- The earnings season : fooled by the results -- Comparative luck -- Cancer cures -- Professor Pearson goes to Monte Carlo (literally) : randomness does not look random! -- The dog that did not bark : on biases in scientific knowledge -- I have no conclusion -- 10. Loser takes all, on the nonlinearities of life -- The sandpile effect -- Enter randomness -- Learning to type -- Mathematics inside and outside the real world -- The science of networks -- Our brain -- Buridan's donkey or the good side of randomness -- When it rains, it pours -- 11. Randomness and our mind : we are probability blind -- Paris or the Bahamas? -- Some architectural considerations -- Beware the philosopher bureaucrat -- Satisficing -- Flawed, not just imperfect -- Kahneman and Tversky -- Where is Napoleon when we need him? -- "I'm as good as my last trade" and other heuristics -- Degree in a fortune cookie -- Two systems of reasoning -- Why we don't marry the first date -- Our natural habitat -- Fast and frugal -- Neurobiologists too -- Kafka in a courtroom -- An absurd world -- Examples of biases in understanding probability -- We are option blind -- Probabilities and the media (more journalists) -- CNBC at lunchtime -- You should be dead by now -- The Bloomberg explanations -- Filtering methods -- We do not understand confidence levels -- An admission."@en
schema:description"pt. I: Solon's warning : skewness, asymmetry, induction. If you're so rich, why aren't you so smart? ; A bizarre accounting method ; A mathematical mediation on history ; Randomness, nonsense, and the scientific intellectual ; Survival of the least fit : can evolution be fooled by randomness? ; Skewness and asymmetry ; The problem of induction -- pt. II. Monkeys on typewriters : survivorship and other biases. Too many millionaires next door ; It is easier to buy and sell than fry an egg ; Loser takes all : on the nonlinearities of life ; Randomness and our mind : we are probability blind -- pt. III. Wax in my ears : living with randomitis. Gamblers' ticks and pigeons in a box -- Carneades comes to Rome : on probability and skepticism -- Bacchus abandons Antony -- Epilogue: Solon told you so."@en
schema:description"Preface -- Acknowledgments for the updated second edition -- Chapter summaries -- Prologue -- pt. I. Solon's warning : skewness, asymmetry, induction -- 1. If you're so rich, why aren't you so smart? -- Nero Tulip -- Hit by lightning -- Temporary sanity -- Modus operandi -- No work ethics -- There are always secrets -- John the high-yield trader -- An overpaid hick -- The red-hot summer -- Serotonin and randomness -- You dentist is rich, very rich -- 2. A bizarre accounting method -- Alternative history -- Russian roulette -- Possible worlds -- An even more vicious roulette -- Smooth peer relations -- Salvation via aeroflot -- Solon visits Regine's nightclub -- George Will is no Solon : on counterintuitive truths -- Humiliated in debates -- A different kind of earthquake -- Proverbs galore -- Risk managers -- Epiphenomena -- 3. A mathematical mediation on history -- Europlayboy mathematics -- The tools -- Monte Carlo mathematics -- Fun in my attic -- Making history -- Zorglubs crowding the attic -- Denigration of history -- The stove is hot -- Skills in predicting past history -- My Solon -- Distilled thinking on your PalmPilot -- Breaking news -- Shiller redux -- Gerontocracy -- Philostratus in Monte Carlo : on the difference between noise and information -- 4. Randomness, nonsense, and the scientific intellectual -- Randomness and the verb -- Reverse turing test -- The father of all pseudothinkers -- Monte Carlo poetry -- 5. Survival of the least fit, can evolution be fooled by randomness? -- Carlos the emerging-markets wizard -- The good years -- Averaging down -- Lines in the sand -- John the high-yield trader -- The quant who knew computers and equations -- The traits they shared -- A review of market fools of randomness constants -- Naive evolutionary theories -- Can evolution be fooled by randomness? -- 6. Skewness and asymmetry -- The median is not the message -- Bull and bear zoology -- An arrogant twenty-nine-year-old son -- Rare events -- Symmetry and science -- Almost everybody is above average -- The rare-event fallacy -- The mother of all deceptions -- Why don't statisticians detect rare events? -- A mischievous child replaces the black balls -- 7. The problem of induction -- From Bacon to Hume -- Cygnus Stratus -- Nordhoff's -- Sir Karl's promoting agent -- Location, location -- Popper's answer -- Open society -- Nobody is perfect -- Induction and memory -- Pascal's wager -- Thank you, Solon."@en
schema:description"pt. III. Wax in my ears : living with randomitis -- I am not so intelligent -- Wittgenstein's ruler -- The Odyssean mute command -- 12. Gamblers' ticks and pigeons in a box -- Taxi-cab English and causality -- The Skinner pigeon experiment -- Philostratus redux -- 13. Carneades comes to Rome : on probability and skepticism -- Carneades comes to Rome -- Probability, the child of skepticism -- Monsieur de Norpois' opinions -- Path dependence of beliefs -- Computing instead of thinking -- From funeral to funeral -- 14. Bacchus abandons Antony -- Notes on Jackie O.'s funeral -- Randomness and personal elegance -- Epilogue. Solon told you so -- Beware the London traffic jams -- Postscript. Three afterthoughts in the shower -- First thought : the inverse skills problem -- Second though : on some additional benefits of randomness -- Uncertainty and happiness -- The scrambling of messages -- Third thought : standing on one leg -- Acknowledgments for the first edition -- A trip to the library : notes and reading recommendations -- Notes -- References -- Index."@en
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