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The Future of mobility : scenarios for the United States in 2030

Author: Johanna Zmud; Liisa Ecola; Peter Phleps; Irene Feige
Publisher: Santa Monica, CA : RAND, [2013]
Edition/Format:   Print book : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
"What might one expect for the future of mobility in the United States in 2030? Mobility is defined as the ability to travel from one location to another, regardless of mode or purpose. RAND researchers used a six-step scenario development process to develop two thought-provoking scenarios that address this question. The six steps are (1) select influencing areas (domains that affect mobility directly; here,  Read more...
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Document Type: Book
All Authors / Contributors: Johanna Zmud; Liisa Ecola; Peter Phleps; Irene Feige
ISBN: 9780833081391 083308139X
OCLC Number: 859168488
Description: xvii, 115 pages ; 28 cm
Contents: Introduction --
Past Trends in Influencing Areas --
The Scenarios --
Consequences for Future Mobility --
Wild-Card Scenarios --
Implications of the Scenarios --
Conclusions --
Appendix A: Methodology --
Appendix B: List of Experts.
Responsibility: Johanna Zmud, Liisa Ecola, Peter Phleps, Irene Feige.

Abstract:

"What might one expect for the future of mobility in the United States in 2030? Mobility is defined as the ability to travel from one location to another, regardless of mode or purpose. RAND researchers used a six-step scenario development process to develop two thought-provoking scenarios that address this question. The six steps are (1) select influencing areas (domains that affect mobility directly; here, demographics, economics, energy, transportation funding and supply, and technology); (2) elicit projections on descriptors (via expert workshops); (3) integrate into scenario frameworks (using two analysis methods and a computer-based tool); (4) produce scenario narratives (based on the clusters produced by the tool); (5) draw consequences for future mobility (by estimating future growth in travel modes based on the projections); and (6) create wild-card scenarios (by looking at events that might disrupt trends). Three key drivers differentiate the resulting scenarios: the price of oil, the development of environmental regulation, and the amount of highway revenues and expenditures. In scenario 1, No Free Lunch, oil prices for consumers and business increase because of greenhouse gas-reduction legislation, and states and localities implement road pricing, which results in higher revenues. Mobility in this scenario is lower because of the higher costs of driving. Scenario 2, Fueled and Freewheeling, assumes that oil prices remain steady, no major environmental legislation is passed, and highway revenues decline, which results in generally higher mobility, especially miles driven"--Provided by publisher.

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