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Guatemala : selected issues and analytical notes

Author: Yixi DengValentina FlaminiJaume PuigAnna IvanovaCarlos JanadaAll authors
Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, [2016] ©2016
Series: IMF country report, no. 16/282.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : International government publication : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
Selected real sector issues: This section estimates potential output growth and the output gap for Guatemala. Potential output growth averaged at 4.4 percent just before the global financial crisis but has declined since to 3¾ percent due to the lower capital accumulation and TFP growth. It is estimated at 3.8 percent in 2016, and the output gap is virtually closed. Looking forward, potential growth is expected to
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Material Type: Document, Government publication, International government publication, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Yixi Deng; Valentina Flamini; Jaume Puig; Anna Ivanova; Carlos Janada; Rodrigo Mariscal; Iulia Teodoru; José Pablo Valdes; Victoria Valente; Joyce Cheng Wong; Marina Mendes Tavares; Adrian Peralta; Xuan Tam; Keiko Honjo; Ben Hunt; Noelia Camara; International Monetary Fund.
ISBN: 9781475531534 1475531532
OCLC Number: 959290362
Notes: "August 2016."
"August 2, 2016; prepared by Yixi Deng, Valentina Flamini, Jaume Puig-Forné, Anna Ivanova, Carlos Janada, Rodrigo Mariscal Paredes, Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru, José Pablo Valdés, Victoria Valente, Joyce Wong (all WHD), Marina Mendez Tavares, Adrian Peralta-Alva and Xuan Tam (SPR), Keiko Honjo and Benjamin Hunt (RES), and Noelia Camara (BBVA), with editorial support from Misael Galdamez and Patricia Delgado"--Page 2 of pdf.
Description: 1 online resource (106 pages) : color illustrations.
Contents: Selected real sector issues --
Fiscal policy: sustainability and social objectives --
Monetary policy management --
Macro financial linkages: assessing financial risks --
Macro financial linkages: Financial development and inclusion.
Series Title: IMF country report, no. 16/282.
Responsibility: prepared by Yixi Deng, Valentina Flamini, Jaume Puig-Forné, Anna Ivanova, Carols Janada, Rodrigo Mariscal Paredes, Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru, José Pablo Valdés, Victorial Valente, Joyces Wong (all WHD).

Abstract:

Selected real sector issues: This section estimates potential output growth and the output gap for Guatemala. Potential output growth averaged at 4.4 percent just before the global financial crisis but has declined since to 3¾ percent due to the lower capital accumulation and TFP growth. It is estimated at 3.8 percent in 2016, and the output gap is virtually closed. Looking forward, potential growth is expected to reach 4 percent in the medium-term due to the expected improvements in TFP growth. --

Fiscal policy: sustainability and social objectives: This section presents an assessment of Guatemala's medium and long term debt sustainability. The results suggest that under the current policies, central government debt is sustainable at 24 percent of GDP and even a short-term relaxation of the fiscal deficit by ½ percent of GDP would only slightly increase the debt-to-GDP ratio in the longer term. Other alternative scenarios based on a permanent relaxation by ½ percent of GDP, historical averages and a large contingent liability shock also indicate debt stabilization in the longer term at levels between 25 and 30 percent of GDP, respectively. The debt path is quite resilient to macro shocks. While not an immediate concern, rising demographic pressures, if left unaddressed, would pose challenges for the budget in the medium and long term. --

Monetary policy management: The objective of this note is to assess the current stance of monetary policy in Guatemala. We find that the monetary stance is broadly appropriate. The current policy rate is 200 basis points below the estimated neutral nominal interest rate of 5 percent. However, with the output gap closed, core inflation below the target range and declining and expectations firmly anchored within the band an immediate tightening is not warranted, but the central bank should remain vigilant in case inflationary pressures intensify. --

Macro financial linkages: assessing financial risks: This section assesses the resilience of the banking system to a variety of shocks. We employ financial soundness indicators and a top-down stress test to evaluate the health of the banking system. The results suggest that the system could withstand a range of sizable shocks but moderately high dollarization of bank loans, relatively large exposure to the government, and growing bank foreign liabilities as well as maturity mismatches in U.S. dollar positions represent vulnerabilities. --

Macro financial linkages: Financial development and inclusion: This section examines the current state of financial development in Guatemala, as well as the implications for potential growth and stability from further financial deepening. Guatemala lags its regional peers on financial development, in particular, on markets. However, it overperforms the level of development consistent with its macroeconomic fundamentals. Hence, while at the moment there are no indications of a significant risk build up, further financial development should proceed with caution. In the longer term, as fundamentals continue to evolve, Guatemala could reap further benefits from financial development in terms of growth and stability, provided there is adequate regulatory oversight to prevent excesses. However, care should be taken in not promoting excessive market development when financial institutions are underdeveloped. Laying out strong legal and institutional foundations will be important for supporting healthy financial deepening.

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