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How insurgencies end

Author: Ben Connable; Martin C Libicki
Publisher: Santa Monica, CA : RAND, ©2010.
Series: Rand Corporation monograph series.
Edition/Format:   Print book : EnglishView all editions and formats
Database:WorldCat
Summary:
"This study tested conventional wisdom about how insurgencies end against the evidence from 89 insurgencies. It compares a quantitative and qualitative analysis of 89 insurgency case studies with lessons from insurgency and counterinsurgency (COIN) literature. While no two insurgencies are the same, the authors find that modern insurgencies last about ten years and that a government's chances of winning may increase  Read more...
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Details

Genre/Form: Case studies
Material Type: Internet resource
Document Type: Book, Internet Resource
All Authors / Contributors: Ben Connable; Martin C Libicki
ISBN: 9780833049520 0833049526 9780833049834 0833049836
OCLC Number: 608033837
Description: xxiv, 244 pages : illustrations (some color) ; 23 cm.
Contents: Introduction --
Classifying ourcomes and selecting cases --
Assessments of insurgency endings: time and external factors --
Assessments of insurgency endings: internal factors --
Assessments of insurgency endings: other factors --
Conclusions.
Series Title: Rand Corporation monograph series.
Responsibility: Ben Connable and Martin C. Libicki.

Abstract:

"This study tested conventional wisdom about how insurgencies end against the evidence from 89 insurgencies. It compares a quantitative and qualitative analysis of 89 insurgency case studies with lessons from insurgency and counterinsurgency (COIN) literature. While no two insurgencies are the same, the authors find that modern insurgencies last about ten years and that a government's chances of winning may increase slightly over time. Insurgencies are suited to hierarchical organization and rural terrain, and sanctuary is vital to insurgents. Insurgent use of terrorism often backfires, and withdrawal of state sponsorship can cripple an insurgency, typically leading to its defeat. Inconsistent support to either side generally presages defeat for that side, although weak insurgencies can still win. Anocracies (pseudodemocracies) rarely succeed against insurgencies. Historically derived force ratios are neither accurate nor predictive, and civil defense forces are very useful for both sides. Key indicators of possible trends and tipping points in an insurgency include changes in desertions, defections, and the flow of information to the COIN effort. The more parties in an insurgency, the more likely it is to have a complex and protracted ending. There are no COIN shortcuts."--Rand web site.

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