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How Small Should an Economy's Fiscal Deficit Be? : A Monetary Programming Approach

Author: Paul Beckerman
Publisher: Washington, D.C : The World Bank, 1999.
Series: World Bank E-Library Archive
Edition/Format:   Computer file : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
March 2000 - A spreadsheet planning model to help determine the government deficit consistent with a specified vector of country macroeconomic objectives. Beckerman describes a spreadsheet planning model to help determine the government deficit consistent with a policymaker's vector of principal macroeconomic objectives (including real GDP growth, inflation, exchange rate, and international reserve accumulation).  Read more...
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Details

Material Type: Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Paul Beckerman
OCLC Number: 874226130
Reproduction Notes: Reproduction. s.l.
Description: 1 online resource (38 p.)
Series Title: World Bank E-Library Archive
Responsibility: Beckerman, Paul.

Abstract:

March 2000 - A spreadsheet planning model to help determine the government deficit consistent with a specified vector of country macroeconomic objectives. Beckerman describes a spreadsheet planning model to help determine the government deficit consistent with a policymaker's vector of principal macroeconomic objectives (including real GDP growth, inflation, exchange rate, and international reserve accumulation). The model focuses on the monetary accounts, applying balance-of-payments forecasts formulated separately but based on the same macroeconomic objectives. The model is a consistency exercise, intended as part of a broader consistency exercise for a given macroeconomy. It offers one more perspective on the question of how large a government deficit should be - a perspective that can be used in conjunction with others. For each forecast period, the model determines consistent period-end and period-average stocks for the economy's outstanding central bank assets and liabilities and government obligations. It applies forecasting assumptions about interest rates to forecast central bank profit-and-loss flows, and takes account of these in determining the overall flow of resources that would be available to finance the government deficit. An annex describes a (purely illustrative) simulation carried out during 1999 for Ecuador. This paper - a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to strengthen the tools for macroeconomic policy analysis and planning in the region's economies. The author may be contacted at pbeckerman@worldbank.org.

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