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Inflation differentials in the GCC : does the oil cycle matter?

Author: Kamiar Mohaddes; Oral Williams; International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Department,
Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2011.
Series: IMF working paper, WP/11/294.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : International government publication : EnglishView all editions and formats
Database:WorldCat
Summary:
This paper uses a pairwise approach to investigate the main factors that have been driving inflation differentials in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region for the past two decades. The results suggest that inflation differentials in the GCC are largely influenced by the oil cycle, mainly through the credit and fiscal channels. This implies that closer coordination of fiscal policies will be key for facilitating  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Williams, Oral.
Inflation Differentials in the GCC: Does the Oil Cycle Matter?
Washington : International Monetary Fund, ©2011
Material Type: Document, Government publication, International government publication, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Kamiar Mohaddes; Oral Williams; International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Department,
ISBN: 9781463981631 1463981635
OCLC Number: 769817070
Notes: At head of title: Middle East and Central Asia Department.
Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed December 29, 2011).
"December 2011."
Description: 1 online resource (30 pages) : illustrations.
Contents: Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. GCC Countries Macro Variables, 1991-2009; 2. Pairwise Differentials in GCC Countries Macro Variables, 1991-2009; II. Literature Review; 3. Pairwise Inflation Differentials, 1991-2009; III. Econometric Model and Methodology; A. Convergence of Inflation Rates; Tables; 1. List of the GCC Countries and the Pairwise Combinations; 2. Definitions and Sources of Variables Used in the Regression Analyis; 3. Unit Root and Stationary Test on Pairwise Inflation Differentials, 1991M1-2010M6; B. Econometric Model; C. GMM Methodology; IV. Macroeconomic Trends. 4. Government Expenditure and Oil Revenue (right-scale), 1991-20094. Inflation Differentials Summary Statistics, 1991-2009; 5. Inflation Differentials Summary Statistics, 1991-2002; A. Determinants of Inflation Differentials; 6. Inflation Differentials Summary Statistics, 1993-2009; 7. GCC Direction of Trade, 1991-2009; 8. Share of Food and Rent in the CPI Basket; V. Empirical Results; A. Analysis Using Monthly Data; 9. GCC Inflation Differentials, 1995M1-2010M6; B. Analysis Using Annual Data; 10. GCC Inflation Differentials, 1991-2009; 11. GCC Inflation Differentials, 2003-09.
Series Title: IMF working paper, WP/11/294.
Other Titles: Inflation differentials in the Gulf Cooperation Council
Responsibility: Kamiar Mohaddes and Oral Williams.

Abstract:

This paper uses a pairwise approach to investigate the main factors that have been driving inflation differentials in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region for the past two decades. The results suggest that inflation differentials in the GCC are largely influenced by the oil cycle, mainly through the credit and fiscal channels. This implies that closer coordination of fiscal policies will be key for facilitating the closer integration of the GCC economies and ahead of the move to a monetary union. The results also indicate that after controlling for cyclical factors, convergence increased even during the recent oil boom.

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