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Inflation Targeting and Communication : It Pays off to Read Inflation Reports.

Author: Katerina Smdkov; Viktor Kotln; David Navrtil
Publisher: Washington : International Monetary Fund, Oct. 2008.
Series: IMF Working Papers.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Smídková, Katerina.
Inflation Targeting and Communication: It Pays Off to Read Inflation Reports.
Washington : International Monetary Fund, ©2008
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Katerina Smdkov; Viktor Kotln; David Navrtil
ISBN: 9781451915457 1451915454
OCLC Number: 887350146
Description: 1 online resource (16 pages).
Contents: I. Why Inflation Targeting?; Figures; 1. Inflation and Its Determinants, 2000-05; II. Inflation Targeting and Communication; A. Central Bank Communication and Inflation Forecasts; B. The Public; 2. Inflation Forecasts, Policymaking, and Communication Under Conditional; III. Methodology and Sample Selection; 3. The Public's Scrutiny of Central Bank Communication; A. Methodology; B. Sample Selection and Data; IV. Empirical Findings; Tables; 1. Inflation Targeters: Sample Characteristics; A. Summary of Results; 2. Breakdown of Communication Results, Sample Average, 2000-05. 3. Clarity of Communication, Sample Averages, 2000-05B. "The Central Bank that Cried Wolf"; 4. Clarity of Communication, Individual Countries, 2000-05; 4. Monetary Policy Communication: 2000-05; C. Robustness Checks; 5. Clarity of Communication: Robustness Checks; V. Conclusions: Is the Glass Half Empty or Half Full?; 5. Clarity of Communication, the 2-Year Forecast Horizon, 2000-05; References; Annex.
Series Title: IMF Working Papers.

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Inflation-targeting central banks have a respectable track record at explaining their policy actions and corresponding inflation outturns. Using a simple forward-looking policy rule and an assessment of inflation reports, we provide a new methodology for the empirical evaluation of consistency in central bank communication. We find that the three communication tools-inflation targets, inflation forecasts, and verbal assessments of inflation factors contained in quarterly inflation reports-provided a consistent message in five out of six observations in our 2000-05 sample of Chile, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Thailand, and Sweden.

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