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Insurgent learning

Author: Francesco Trebbi; Austin L Wright; Andrew Shaver; National Bureau of Economic Research,
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2017.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 23475.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
We study a model of insurgent learning during a counterinsurgency campaign. We test empirical implications of the model using newly declassified microdata documenting improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Afghanistan from 2006 to 2014. This period was characterized by substantial US investments in anti-IED technology and equipment. We find no evidence of decreasing effectiveness of IEDs across time. Qualitative  Read more...
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Details

Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Francesco Trebbi; Austin L Wright; Andrew Shaver; National Bureau of Economic Research,
OCLC Number: 992169946
Notes: "June 2017"
Description: 1 online resource (31, A-9, SI-16 pages) : illustrations.
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 23475.
Responsibility: Francesco Trebbi, Eric Weese, Austin L. Wright, Andrew Shaver.

Abstract:

We study a model of insurgent learning during a counterinsurgency campaign. We test empirical implications of the model using newly declassified microdata documenting improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Afghanistan from 2006 to 2014. This period was characterized by substantial US investments in anti-IED technology and equipment. We find no evidence of decreasing effectiveness of IEDs across time. Qualitative evidence suggests that this is due to innovations in IED devices and tactics. Our results are robust to numerous alternative specifications, and yield insights on a technological revolution in insurgent violence--the proliferation and evolution of IEDs--with implications for scholarship on civil conflict and future investment in tactical countermeasures.

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