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Interpreting probability : controversies and developments in the early twentieth century

Author: David Howie
Publisher: Cambridge ; New York : Cambridge University Press, 2002.
Series: Cambridge studies in probability, induction, and decision theory.
Edition/Format:   Book : EnglishView all editions and formats
Database:WorldCat
Summary:
The term probability can be used in two main senses. In the frequency interpretation it is a limiting ratio in a sequence of repeatable events. In the Bayesian view, probability is a mental construct representing uncertainty. This book is about these two types of probability and investigates how, despite being adopted by scientists and statisticians in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, Bayesianism was  Read more...
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Details

Genre/Form: Einführung
Named Person: Harold Jeffreys; Ronald Aylmer Fisher, Sir; Ronald Aylmer Fisher, Sir; Harold Jeffreys
Material Type: Internet resource
Document Type: Book, Internet Resource
All Authors / Contributors: David Howie
ISBN: 0521812518 9780521812511
OCLC Number: 48084073
Description: xi, 262 p. ; 24 cm.
Contents: The meaning of probability --
The history of probability --
Scope of this book --
Methods and argument --
Synopsis and aims --
Probability up to the Twentieth Century --
Early applications of the probability calculus --
Resistance to the calculation of uncertainty --
The doctrine of chances --
Inverse probability --
Laplacean probability --
The eclipse of Laplacean probability --
Social statistics --
The rise of the frequency interpretation of probability --
Opposition to social statistics and probabilistic methods --
Probability theory in the sciences: evolution and biometrics --
The interpretation of probability around the end of the nineteenth century --
R.A. Fisher and Statistical Probability --
R.A. Fisher's early years --
Evolution --
the biometricians versus the Mendelians --
Fisher's early work --
The clash with Pearson --
Fisher's rejection of inverse probability --
Fisher's new version of probability --
The papers of 1921 and 1922 --
The Pearson-Fisher feud --
The move to Rothamsted: experimental design --
The position in 1925 --
Statistical Methods for Research Workers --
The development of fiducial probability --
Fisher's position in 1932 --
Harold Jeffreys and Inverse Probability --
Jeffreys's background and early career --
The Meteorological Office --
Dorothy Wrinch --
Broad's 1918 paper --
Wrinch and Jeffreys tackle probability --
After the first paper --
General relativity --
The Oppau explosion --
New work on probability --
John Maynard Keynes --
Other factors --
Probability theory extended.
Series Title: Cambridge studies in probability, induction, and decision theory.
Responsibility: David Howie.
More information:

Abstract:

The term probability can be used in two main senses. In the frequency interpretation it is a limiting ratio in a sequence of repeatable events. In the Bayesian view, probability is a mental construct representing uncertainty. This book is about these two types of probability and investigates how, despite being adopted by scientists and statisticians in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, Bayesianism was discredited as a theory of scientific inference during the 1920s and 1930s. Through the examination of a dispute between two British scientists, the author argues that a choice between the two interpretations is not forced by pure logic or the mathematics of the situation, but depends on the experiences and aims of the individuals involved. The book should be of interest to students and scientists interested in statistics and probability theories and to general readers with an interest in the history, sociology and philosophy of science.

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