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Known unknowns : unconventional "strategic shocks" in defense strategy development

Author: Nathan Freier; Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute.; Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute.
Publisher: Carlisle, Pa. : Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute and Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, [2008]
Series: PKSOI papers.
Edition/Format:   Print book : National government publication : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
Introduction : the failure of imagination -- "Known unknowns" : predictable but unpredicted strategic shocks -- Trapped by convention : seeing the future we want? -- Seeing the whole future : incorporating shocks in defense strategy -- Routinizing imagination : plausible unconventional shocks -- Conclusion : Avoiding the next blue ribbon panel - or worse.
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Genre/Form: Rules
Additional Physical Format: Online version:
Freier, Nathan.
Known unknowns.
Carlisle, Pa. : Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute and Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, [2008]
(OCoLC)609263488
Online version:
Freier, Nathan.
Known unknowns.
Carlisle, Pa. : Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute and Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, [2008]
(OCoLC)609303404
Material Type: Government publication, National government publication, Internet resource
Document Type: Book, Internet Resource
All Authors / Contributors: Nathan Freier; Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute.; Army War College (U.S.). Strategic Studies Institute.
ISBN: 158487368X 9781584873686
OCLC Number: 287119646
Notes: "November 2008."
Format not distributed to depository libraries.
"The current defense team confronted a game-changing "strategic shock" in its first 8 months in office. The next team would be well-advised to expect the same. Defense-relevant strategic shocks jolt convention to such an extent that they force sudden, unanticipated change in the Department of Defense's (DoD) perceptions about threat, vulnerability, and strategic response. Their unanticipated onset forces the entire defense enterprise to reorient and restructure institutions, employ capabilities in unexpected ways, and confront challenges that are fundamentally different than those routinely considered in defense calculations. The likeliest and most dangerous future shocks will be unconventional. They will not emerge from thunderbolt advances in an opponent's military capabilities. Rather, they will manifest themselves in ways far outside established defense convention. Most will be nonmilitary in origin and character, and not, by definition, defense-specific events conducive to the conventional employment of the DoD enterprise. They will rise from an analytical no man's land separating well-considered, stock and trade defense contingencies and pure defense speculation. Their origin is most likely to be in irregular, catastrophic, and hybrid threats of "purpose" (emerging from hostile design) or threats of "context" (emerging in the absence of hostile purpose or design). Of the two, the latter is both the least understood and the most dangerous."--Page vii.
Description: viii, 44 pages ; 23 cm.
Contents: Summary --
Introduction : the failure of imagination --
"Known unknowns" : predictable but unpredicted strategic shocks --
Trapped by convention : seeing the future we want? --
Seeing the whole future : incorporating shocks in defense strategy --
Routinizing imagination : plausible unconventional shocks --
Conclusion : Avoiding the next blue ribbon panel --
or worse.
Series Title: PKSOI papers.
Other Titles: Unconventional "strategic shocks" in defense strategy development
Responsibility: Nathan Freier.

Abstract:

Introduction : the failure of imagination -- "Known unknowns" : predictable but unpredicted strategic shocks -- Trapped by convention : seeing the future we want? -- Seeing the whole future : incorporating shocks in defense strategy -- Routinizing imagination : plausible unconventional shocks -- Conclusion : Avoiding the next blue ribbon panel - or worse.

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