skip to content
Learning from potentially-biased statistics : household inflation perceptions and expectations in Argentina Preview this item
ClosePreview this item
Checking...

Learning from potentially-biased statistics : household inflation perceptions and expectations in Argentina

Author: Alberto F Cavallo; Guillermo Cruces; Ricardo Perez-Truglia; National Bureau of Economic Research,
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2016.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 22103.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
When forming expectations, households may be influenced by the possibility that the information they receive is biased. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially-biased statistics using data from both a natural and a survey-based experiment obtained during a period of government manipulation of inflation statistics in Argentina (2006-2015). This period is interesting because of the attention to  Read more...
Rating:

(not yet rated) 0 with reviews - Be the first.

Subjects
More like this

 

Find a copy online

Links to this item

Find a copy in the library

&AllPage.SpinnerRetrieving; Finding libraries that hold this item...

Details

Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Alberto F Cavallo; Guillermo Cruces; Ricardo Perez-Truglia; National Bureau of Economic Research,
OCLC Number: 945554351
Notes: "March 2016"
Description: 1 online resource (39 pages) : illustrations.
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 22103.
Responsibility: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces, Ricardo Perez-Truglia.

Abstract:

When forming expectations, households may be influenced by the possibility that the information they receive is biased. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially-biased statistics using data from both a natural and a survey-based experiment obtained during a period of government manipulation of inflation statistics in Argentina (2006-2015). This period is interesting because of the attention to inflation information and the availability of both official and unofficial statistics. Our evidence suggests that rather than ignoring biased statistics or navively taking them at face value, households react in a sophisticated way, as predicted by a Bayesian learning model, effectively de-biasing the official data to extract all its useful content. We also find evidence of an asymmetric reaction to inflation signals, with expectations changing more when the inflation rate rises than when it falls. These results are useful for understanding the formation of inflation expectations in less extreme contexts than Argentina, such as the United States and Europe, where experts may agree that statistics are unbiased but households do not.

Reviews

User-contributed reviews
Retrieving GoodReads reviews...
Retrieving DOGObooks reviews...

Tags

Be the first.
Confirm this request

You may have already requested this item. Please select Ok if you would like to proceed with this request anyway.

Linked Data


Primary Entity

<http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/945554351> # Learning from potentially-biased statistics : household inflation perceptions and expectations in Argentina
    a schema:MediaObject, schema:CreativeWork, schema:Book ;
   library:oclcnum "945554351" ;
   library:placeOfPublication <http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/countries/mau> ;
   schema:about <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/2962686854#Topic/rational_expectations_economic_theory> ; # Rational expectations (Economic theory)
   schema:about <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/2962686854#Topic/information_theory_in_economics> ; # Information theory in economics
   schema:about <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/2962686854#Topic/inflation_finance_public_opinion_social_aspects_argentina_econometric_models> ; # Inflation (Finance)--Public opinion--Social aspects--Argentina--Econometric models
   schema:author <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/2962686854#Person/perez_truglia_ricardo> ; # Ricardo Perez-Truglia
   schema:author <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/2962686854#Person/cruces_guillermo> ; # Guillermo Cruces
   schema:author <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/2962686854#Person/cavallo_alberto_f> ; # Alberto F. Cavallo
   schema:bookFormat schema:EBook ;
   schema:datePublished "2016" ;
   schema:description "When forming expectations, households may be influenced by the possibility that the information they receive is biased. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially-biased statistics using data from both a natural and a survey-based experiment obtained during a period of government manipulation of inflation statistics in Argentina (2006-2015). This period is interesting because of the attention to inflation information and the availability of both official and unofficial statistics. Our evidence suggests that rather than ignoring biased statistics or navively taking them at face value, households react in a sophisticated way, as predicted by a Bayesian learning model, effectively de-biasing the official data to extract all its useful content. We also find evidence of an asymmetric reaction to inflation signals, with expectations changing more when the inflation rate rises than when it falls. These results are useful for understanding the formation of inflation expectations in less extreme contexts than Argentina, such as the United States and Europe, where experts may agree that statistics are unbiased but households do not."@en ;
   schema:exampleOfWork <http://worldcat.org/entity/work/id/2962686854> ;
   schema:inLanguage "en" ;
   schema:isPartOf <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/2962686854#Series/nber_working_paper_series> ; # NBER working paper series ;
   schema:isPartOf <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/2962686854#Series/working_paper_series_national_bureau_of_economic_research> ; # Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ;
   schema:name "Learning from potentially-biased statistics : household inflation perceptions and expectations in Argentina"@en ;
   schema:productID "945554351" ;
   schema:publisher <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/2962686854#Organization/national_bureau_of_economic_research> ; # National Bureau of Economic Research,
   schema:url <http://www.nber.org/papers/w22103> ;
   wdrs:describedby <http://www.worldcat.org/title/-/oclc/945554351> ;
    .


Related Entities

<http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/2962686854#Organization/national_bureau_of_economic_research> # National Bureau of Economic Research,
    a schema:Organization ;
   schema:name "National Bureau of Economic Research," ;
    .

<http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/2962686854#Person/cavallo_alberto_f> # Alberto F. Cavallo
    a schema:Person ;
   schema:familyName "Cavallo" ;
   schema:givenName "Alberto F." ;
   schema:name "Alberto F. Cavallo" ;
    .

<http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/2962686854#Person/cruces_guillermo> # Guillermo Cruces
    a schema:Person ;
   schema:familyName "Cruces" ;
   schema:givenName "Guillermo" ;
   schema:name "Guillermo Cruces" ;
    .

<http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/2962686854#Person/perez_truglia_ricardo> # Ricardo Perez-Truglia
    a schema:Person ;
   schema:familyName "Perez-Truglia" ;
   schema:givenName "Ricardo" ;
   schema:name "Ricardo Perez-Truglia" ;
    .

<http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/2962686854#Series/nber_working_paper_series> # NBER working paper series ;
    a bgn:PublicationSeries ;
   schema:hasPart <http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/945554351> ; # Learning from potentially-biased statistics : household inflation perceptions and expectations in Argentina
   schema:name "NBER working paper series ;" ;
    .

<http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/2962686854#Series/working_paper_series_national_bureau_of_economic_research> # Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ;
    a bgn:PublicationSeries ;
   schema:hasPart <http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/945554351> ; # Learning from potentially-biased statistics : household inflation perceptions and expectations in Argentina
   schema:name "Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ;" ;
    .

<http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/2962686854#Topic/inflation_finance_public_opinion_social_aspects_argentina_econometric_models> # Inflation (Finance)--Public opinion--Social aspects--Argentina--Econometric models
    a schema:Intangible ;
   schema:name "Inflation (Finance)--Public opinion--Social aspects--Argentina--Econometric models"@en ;
    .

<http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/2962686854#Topic/information_theory_in_economics> # Information theory in economics
    a schema:Intangible ;
   schema:name "Information theory in economics"@en ;
    .

<http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/2962686854#Topic/rational_expectations_economic_theory> # Rational expectations (Economic theory)
    a schema:Intangible ;
   schema:name "Rational expectations (Economic theory)"@en ;
    .

<http://www.worldcat.org/title/-/oclc/945554351>
    a genont:InformationResource, genont:ContentTypeGenericResource ;
   schema:about <http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/945554351> ; # Learning from potentially-biased statistics : household inflation perceptions and expectations in Argentina
   schema:dateModified "2017-12-24" ;
   void:inDataset <http://purl.oclc.org/dataset/WorldCat> ;
    .


Content-negotiable representations

Close Window

Please sign in to WorldCat 

Don't have an account? You can easily create a free account.