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Left, right, left : income, learning and political dynamics

Author: John Morrow; Michael R Carter; National Bureau of Economic Research.
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2013.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 19498.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
The political left turn in Latin America, which lagged its transition to liberalized market economies by a decade or more, challenges conventional economic explanations of voting behavior. This paper generalizes the forward-looking voter model to a broad range of dynamic, non-concave income processes. The model implies support for redistributive policies materializes rapidly if few prospects of upward mobility are  Read more...
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Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: John Morrow; Michael R Carter; National Bureau of Economic Research.
OCLC Number: 859668635
Notes: Title from http://www.nber.org/papers/19498 viewed October 9, 2013.
"October 2013."
Description: 1 online resource (34 pages) : illustrations.
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 19498.
Responsibility: John Morrow, Michael Carter.

Abstract:

The political left turn in Latin America, which lagged its transition to liberalized market economies by a decade or more, challenges conventional economic explanations of voting behavior. This paper generalizes the forward-looking voter model to a broad range of dynamic, non-concave income processes. The model implies support for redistributive policies materializes rapidly if few prospects of upward mobility are present. In contrast, modeling voters' ideologically charged beliefs about income dynamics shows a slow and polarizing shift toward redistributive preferences occurs. Simulation using fitted income dynamics suggests that imperfect information better accounts for the shift back to the left, and offers additional insights about political dynamics.

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