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Manufacturing decline, housing booms, and non-employment

Author: Kerwin Kofi Charles; Erik Hurst; Matt Notowidigdo; National Bureau of Economic Research.
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2013.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 18949.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
We assess the extent to which manufacturing decline and housing booms contributed to changes in U.S. non-employment during the 2000s. Using a local labor market design, we estimate that manufacturing decline significantly increased non-employment during 2000-2007, while local housing booms decreased non-employment by roughly the same magnitude. The effects of manufacturing decline persist through 2011, but we find  Read more...
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Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Kerwin Kofi Charles; Erik Hurst; Matt Notowidigdo; National Bureau of Economic Research.
OCLC Number: 837575663
Notes: Title from http://www.nber.org/papers/18949 viewed April 10, 2013.
"April 2013."
Description: 1 online resource (49 pages) : illustrations.
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 18949.
Responsibility: Kerwin Kofi Charles, Erik Hurst, Matthew J. Notowidigdo.

Abstract:

We assess the extent to which manufacturing decline and housing booms contributed to changes in U.S. non-employment during the 2000s. Using a local labor market design, we estimate that manufacturing decline significantly increased non-employment during 2000-2007, while local housing booms decreased non-employment by roughly the same magnitude. The effects of manufacturing decline persist through 2011, but we find no persistent non-employment effects of local housing booms, most plausibly because housing booms were associated with subsequent busts of similar magnitude. We also find that housing booms significantly reduce the likelihood that displaced manufacturing workers remain non-employed, suggesting that housing booms "mask" non-employment growth that would have otherwise occurred earlier in the absence of the booms. Applying our estimates to the national labor market, we find that hosing booms reduced non-employment growth by roughly 30 percent during 2000-2007 and that roughly 40 percent of the aggregate increase in non-employment during 2000-2011 can be attributed to manufacturing decline. Collectively, our results suggest that much of the non-employment growth during the 2000s can be attributed to manufacturing decline and these effects would have appeared in aggregate statistics earlier had it not been for the large, temporary increases in housing demand.

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