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The map and the territory : risk, human nature, and the future of forecasting

Autor: Alan Greenspan
Editora: New York : The Penguin Press, 2013.
Edição/Formato   Livro : InglêsVer todas as edições e formatos
Base de Dados:WorldCat
Resumo:
Explains how the financial crisis has challenged fundamental assumptions about leading economic models, drawing on twenty-first-century technologies and the expertise of behavioral economists to outline new forecasting practices.
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Detalhes

Tipo de Documento: Livro
Todos os Autores / Contribuintes: Alan Greenspan
ISBN: 9781594204814 1594204810
Número OCLC: 837179768
Descrição: 388 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm
Conteúdos: Animal spirits --
The crisis begins, intensifies, and abates --
The roots of crisis --
Stock prices and equity stimulus --
Finance and regulation --
Schooner intelligence and then some --
Uncertainty undermines investment --
Productivity : the ultimate measure of economic success --
Productivity and the age of entitlements --
Culture --
The onset of globalization, income inequality, and the rise of the gini and the crony --
Money and inflation --
Buffers --
The bottom line.
Responsabilidade: Alan Greenspan.

Resumo:

Explains how the financial crisis has challenged fundamental assumptions about leading economic models, drawing on twenty-first-century technologies and the expertise of behavioral economists to outline new forecasting practices.

Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us? To answer this question, Alan Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and far-reaching multiyear examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how it can predict it better. Economic risk is a fact of life in every realm, from home to business to government at all levels. Whether we're conscious of it or not, we make wagers on the future virtually every day, one way or another. Very often, however, we're steering by out-of-date maps, when we're not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control. The Map and the Territory is nothing less than an effort to update our forecasting conceptual grid. It integrates the history of economic prediction, the new work of behavioral economists, and the fruits of the author's own remarkable career to offer a thrillingly lucid and empirically based grounding in what we can know about economic forecasting and what we can't.The book explores how culture is and isn't destiny and probes what we can predict about the world's biggest looming challenges, from debt and the reform of the welfare state to natural disasters in an age of global warming. No map is the territory, but Greenspan's approach, grounded in his trademark rigor, wisdom, and unprecedented context, ensures that this particular map will assist in safe journeys down many different roads, traveled by individuals, businesses, and the state. - Publisher.

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