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Market potential and global growth over the long twentieth century

Author: David S Jacks; Dennis Novy; National Bureau of Economic Research,
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2016.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 22736.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
We examine the evolution of market potential over the long twentieth century from 1900 to 2010. Theoretically, we exploit a structural gravity model to derive a closed-form solution for a widely-used measure of market potential. We are, thus, able to express market potential as a function of directly observable and easily estimable variables. This allows us to consistently compare our measure of market potential  Read more...
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Details

Genre/Form: History
Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: David S Jacks; Dennis Novy; National Bureau of Economic Research,
OCLC Number: 960813487
Notes: "October 2016"
Description: 1 online resource (39 pages) : illustrations, map.
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 22736.
Responsibility: David S. Jacks, Dennis Novy.

Abstract:

We examine the evolution of market potential over the long twentieth century from 1900 to 2010. Theoretically, we exploit a structural gravity model to derive a closed-form solution for a widely-used measure of market potential. We are, thus, able to express market potential as a function of directly observable and easily estimable variables. This allows us to consistently compare our measure of market potential both in the cross-section and over time. Empirically, we collect a large data set on aggregate and bilateral trade flows as well as output for 51 countries. We find that market potential exhibits an upward trend across all regions of the world, in particular after World War II. The rise in market potential is also associated with a significant share of global income growth over that period.

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