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Measuring illegal border crossing between ports of entry : an assessment of four promising methods

Author: Andrew R MorralHenry H WillisPeter BrownellUnited States. Department of Defense. Office of the Secretary of Defense.Rand Corporation.All authors
Publisher: Santa Monica, CA : RAND Corp., 2011.
Series: Occasional paper (Rand Corporation), OP-328-OSD.
Edition/Format:   Print book : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security is responsible for controlling the flow of goods and people across the U.S. border, a difficult task that raises challenging resource management questions about how best to minimize illicit flows across the border while facilitating legitimate ones. Commonly reported border control measures, such as numbers of illegal migrants apprehended or miles of border under effective  Read more...
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Material Type: Internet resource
Document Type: Book, Internet Resource
All Authors / Contributors: Andrew R Morral; Henry H Willis; Peter Brownell; United States. Department of Defense. Office of the Secretary of Defense.; Rand Corporation.; RAND Homeland Security and Defense Center.
ISBN: 0833051504 9780833051509
OCLC Number: 710890481
Notes: "Homeland Security and Defense Center."
Description: ix, 14 pages ; 28 cm.
Contents: Why estimate flow? --
Four promising methods --
Discussion.
Series Title: Occasional paper (Rand Corporation), OP-328-OSD.
Responsibility: Andrew R. Morral, Henry H. Willis, Peter Brownell.

Abstract:

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security is responsible for controlling the flow of goods and people across the U.S. border, a difficult task that raises challenging resource management questions about how best to minimize illicit flows across the border while facilitating legitimate ones. Commonly reported border control measures, such as numbers of illegal migrants apprehended or miles of border under effective control, bear only an indirect and uncertain relationship to the border control mission, making them unreliable management tools. Fundamental to the question of border control effectiveness is the proportion of illicit border crossings that are prevented through either deterrence or apprehension. Estimating these proportions requires knowing the total flow of illicit goods or border crossings, but compelling methods for producing such estimates do not yet exist. This short paper describes four innovative approaches to estimating the total flow of illicit border crossings between ports of entry. Each is sufficiently promising to warrant further attention for purposes of supporting reliable, valid, and timely measures of illicit cross-border flow. Successfully implementing each of these approaches will require methodological development and analysis to identify barriers or constraints to using the approach, the cost of data collection, and the amount of error that can be expected in the resulting estimates.

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