skip to content
Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic : development of a time-dependent hurricane evacuation demand model Preview this item
ClosePreview this item
Checking...

Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic : development of a time-dependent hurricane evacuation demand model

Author: Haoqiang Fu; Chester Wilmot; Louisiana. Department of Transportation and Development.; Louisiana Transportation Research Center.; Louisiana State University (Baton Rouge, La.). Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.
Publisher: Baton Rouge, LA : Louisiana Transportation Research Center, 2006.
Edition/Format:   Print book : State or province government publication : EnglishView all editions and formats
Summary:
Little attention has been given to estimating dynamic travel demand in transportation planning in the past. However, when factors influencing travel are changing significantly over time - such as with an approaching hurricane - dynamic demand and the resulting variation in traffic flow on the network become important. In this study, dynamic travel demand models for hurricane evacuation were developed with two  Read more...
Rating:

(not yet rated) 0 with reviews - Be the first.

Subjects
More like this

 

Find a copy online

Links to this item

Find a copy in the library

&AllPage.SpinnerRetrieving; Finding libraries that hold this item...

Details

Additional Physical Format: Online version:
Fu, Haoqiang.
Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic.
Baton Rouge, LA : Louisiana Transportation Research Center, 2006
(OCoLC)855530377
Material Type: Government publication, State or province government publication, Internet resource
Document Type: Book, Internet Resource
All Authors / Contributors: Haoqiang Fu; Chester Wilmot; Louisiana. Department of Transportation and Development.; Louisiana Transportation Research Center.; Louisiana State University (Baton Rouge, La.). Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.
OCLC Number: 244193990
Notes: "Sponsored jointly by the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development and Louisiana State University"--Cover.
"Louisiana Transportation Research"--Cover.
"April 2006."
Title page "March 2006."
Description: xvi, 124 pages : illustrations, charts ; 28 cm + 1 CD-ROM (4 3/4 in.)
Responsibility: by Haoqiang Fu, Chester Wilmot.

Abstract:

Little attention has been given to estimating dynamic travel demand in transportation planning in the past. However, when factors influencing travel are changing significantly over time - such as with an approaching hurricane - dynamic demand and the resulting variation in traffic flow on the network become important. In this study, dynamic travel demand models for hurricane evacuation were developed with two methodologies: survival analysis and sequential choice model. Using survival analysis, the time before evacuation from a pending hurricane is modeled with those that do not evacuate considered as censored observations. A Cox proportional hazards regression model with time-dependent variables and a Piecewise Exponential model were estimated. In the sequential choice model, the decision to evacuate in the face of an oncoming hurricane is considered as a series of binary choices over time. A sequential logit model and a sequential complementary log-log model were developed. Each model is capable of predicting the probability of a household evacuating at each time period before hurricane landfall as a function of the household's socio-economic characteristics, the characteristics of the hurricane (such as distance to the storm), and policy decisions (such as the issuing of evacuation orders). Three datasets were used in this study. They were data from southwest Louisiana collected following Hurricane Andrew, data from South Carolina collected following Hurricane Floyd, and stated preference survey data collected from the New Orleans area. Based on the analysis, the sequential logit model was found to be the best alternative for modeling dynamic travel demand for hurricane evacuation. The sequential logit model produces predictions which are superior to those of the current evacuation participation rate models with response curves. Transfer of the sequential logit model estimated on the Floyd data to the Andrew data demonstrated that the sequential logit model is capable of estimating dynamic travel demand in a different environment than the one in which it was estimated with reasonable accuracy. However, more study is required on the transferability of models of this type, as well as the development of procedures that would allow the updating of transferred model parameters to better reflect local evacuation behavior.

Reviews

User-contributed reviews
Retrieving GoodReads reviews...
Retrieving DOGObooks reviews...

Tags

Be the first.
Confirm this request

You may have already requested this item. Please select Ok if you would like to proceed with this request anyway.

Linked Data


Primary Entity

<http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/244193990> # Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic : development of a time-dependent hurricane evacuation demand model
    a schema:Book, schema:CreativeWork ;
   library:oclcnum "244193990" ;
   library:placeOfPublication <http://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/countries/lau> ;
   library:placeOfPublication <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/291668659#Place/baton_rouge_la> ; # Baton Rouge, LA
   rdfs:comment "Unknown 'gen' value: sgp" ;
   schema:about <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/291668659#Topic/traffic_engineering_louisiana_design_and_construction> ; # Traffic engineering--Louisiana--Design and construction
   schema:about <http://id.worldcat.org/fast/1207035> ; # Louisiana
   schema:about <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/291668659#Topic/evacuation_of_civilians_louisiana_design_and_construction> ; # Evacuation of civilians--Louisiana--Design and construction
   schema:bookFormat bgn:PrintBook ;
   schema:contributor <http://viaf.org/viaf/145522458> ; # Louisiana Transportation Research Center.
   schema:contributor <http://viaf.org/viaf/159715030> ; # Louisiana State University (Baton Rouge, La.). Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.
   schema:contributor <http://viaf.org/viaf/131877341> ; # Louisiana. Department of Transportation and Development.
   schema:contributor <http://viaf.org/viaf/43720551> ; # Chester G. Wilmot
   schema:creator <http://viaf.org/viaf/58904230> ; # Haoqiang Fu
   schema:datePublished "2006" ;
   schema:description "Little attention has been given to estimating dynamic travel demand in transportation planning in the past. However, when factors influencing travel are changing significantly over time - such as with an approaching hurricane - dynamic demand and the resulting variation in traffic flow on the network become important. In this study, dynamic travel demand models for hurricane evacuation were developed with two methodologies: survival analysis and sequential choice model. Using survival analysis, the time before evacuation from a pending hurricane is modeled with those that do not evacuate considered as censored observations. A Cox proportional hazards regression model with time-dependent variables and a Piecewise Exponential model were estimated. In the sequential choice model, the decision to evacuate in the face of an oncoming hurricane is considered as a series of binary choices over time. A sequential logit model and a sequential complementary log-log model were developed. Each model is capable of predicting the probability of a household evacuating at each time period before hurricane landfall as a function of the household's socio-economic characteristics, the characteristics of the hurricane (such as distance to the storm), and policy decisions (such as the issuing of evacuation orders). Three datasets were used in this study. They were data from southwest Louisiana collected following Hurricane Andrew, data from South Carolina collected following Hurricane Floyd, and stated preference survey data collected from the New Orleans area. Based on the analysis, the sequential logit model was found to be the best alternative for modeling dynamic travel demand for hurricane evacuation. The sequential logit model produces predictions which are superior to those of the current evacuation participation rate models with response curves. Transfer of the sequential logit model estimated on the Floyd data to the Andrew data demonstrated that the sequential logit model is capable of estimating dynamic travel demand in a different environment than the one in which it was estimated with reasonable accuracy. However, more study is required on the transferability of models of this type, as well as the development of procedures that would allow the updating of transferred model parameters to better reflect local evacuation behavior."@en ;
   schema:exampleOfWork <http://worldcat.org/entity/work/id/291668659> ;
   schema:genre "Government publication"@en ;
   schema:inLanguage "en" ;
   schema:isSimilarTo <http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/855530377> ;
   schema:name "Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic : development of a time-dependent hurricane evacuation demand model"@en ;
   schema:productID "244193990" ;
   schema:publication <http://www.worldcat.org/title/-/oclc/244193990#PublicationEvent/baton_rouge_la_louisiana_transportation_research_center_2006> ;
   schema:publisher <http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/291668659#Agent/louisiana_transportation_research_center> ; # Louisiana Transportation Research Center
   schema:url <https://www.ltrc.lsu.edu/pdf/2008/fr_408.pdf> ;
   wdrs:describedby <http://www.worldcat.org/title/-/oclc/244193990> ;
    .


Related Entities

<http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/291668659#Agent/louisiana_transportation_research_center> # Louisiana Transportation Research Center
    a bgn:Agent ;
   schema:name "Louisiana Transportation Research Center" ;
    .

<http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/291668659#Topic/evacuation_of_civilians_louisiana_design_and_construction> # Evacuation of civilians--Louisiana--Design and construction
    a schema:Intangible ;
   schema:hasPart <http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85045925> ;
   schema:name "Evacuation of civilians--Louisiana--Design and construction"@en ;
    .

<http://experiment.worldcat.org/entity/work/data/291668659#Topic/traffic_engineering_louisiana_design_and_construction> # Traffic engineering--Louisiana--Design and construction
    a schema:Intangible ;
   schema:hasPart <http://id.loc.gov/authorities/subjects/sh85136766> ;
   schema:name "Traffic engineering--Louisiana--Design and construction"@en ;
    .

<http://id.worldcat.org/fast/1207035> # Louisiana
    a schema:Place ;
   schema:name "Louisiana" ;
    .

<http://viaf.org/viaf/131877341> # Louisiana. Department of Transportation and Development.
    a schema:Organization ;
   schema:name "Louisiana. Department of Transportation and Development." ;
    .

<http://viaf.org/viaf/145522458> # Louisiana Transportation Research Center.
    a schema:Organization ;
   schema:name "Louisiana Transportation Research Center." ;
    .

<http://viaf.org/viaf/159715030> # Louisiana State University (Baton Rouge, La.). Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.
    a schema:Organization ;
   schema:name "Louisiana State University (Baton Rouge, La.). Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering." ;
    .

<http://viaf.org/viaf/43720551> # Chester G. Wilmot
    a schema:Person ;
   schema:familyName "Wilmot" ;
   schema:givenName "Chester G." ;
   schema:givenName "Chester" ;
   schema:name "Chester G. Wilmot" ;
    .

<http://viaf.org/viaf/58904230> # Haoqiang Fu
    a schema:Person ;
   schema:familyName "Fu" ;
   schema:givenName "Haoqiang" ;
   schema:name "Haoqiang Fu" ;
    .

<http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/855530377>
    a schema:CreativeWork ;
   rdfs:label "Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic." ;
   schema:description "Online version:" ;
   schema:isSimilarTo <http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/244193990> ; # Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic : development of a time-dependent hurricane evacuation demand model
    .

<http://www.worldcat.org/title/-/oclc/244193990>
    a genont:InformationResource, genont:ContentTypeGenericResource ;
   schema:about <http://www.worldcat.org/oclc/244193990> ; # Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic : development of a time-dependent hurricane evacuation demand model
   schema:dateModified "2017-12-23" ;
   void:inDataset <http://purl.oclc.org/dataset/WorldCat> ;
    .


Content-negotiable representations

Close Window

Please sign in to WorldCat 

Don't have an account? You can easily create a free account.