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Optimal precautionary reserves for low-income countries : a cost-benefit analysis

Author: Era Dabla-Norris; Jun Kim; Kazuko Shirono; International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, and Review Department,
Publisher: [Washington, D.C.] : International Monetary Fund, ©2011.
Series: IMF working paper, WP/11/249.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : International government publication : EnglishView all editions and formats
Database:WorldCat
Summary:
This paper develops a cost-benefit approach that helps to quantify the optimal level of international reserves in low-income countries, focusing on the role of reserves in preventing and mitigating absorption drops triggered by large external shocks. The approach is applied to a sample of 49 LICs over the period 1980-2008 to yield estimates of the likelihood and severity of a crisis. The calibration results suggest  Read more...
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Genre/Form: Electronic books
Additional Physical Format: Print version:
Dabla-Norris, Era.
Optimal Precautionary Reserves for Low-Income Countries: A Cost-Benefit Analysis.
Washington : International Monetary Fund, ©2011
Material Type: Document, Government publication, International government publication, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Era Dabla-Norris; Jun Kim; Kazuko Shirono; International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, and Review Department,
ISBN: 9781463961268 146396126X
OCLC Number: 759105459
Notes: At head of title: Strategy, Policy, and Review Department.
Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed October 28, 2011).
"October 2011."
Description: 1 online resource (36 pages).
Contents: Cover Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Reserves in low-Income Countries: Stylized Facts; 1. Recent Trends in Reserve Accumulation in Low-Income Countries (LICs); 2. Median Reserve Coverage in Low-Income Countries (LICs); 1. Estimating Reserve Demand in LICs; 3. Actual and Predicted Reserves, 2002-2008; III. Analytical Framework; IV. Empirical Analysis; A. Identifying External Shocks and Crisis Events; 4. External Shock Episodes; 2. Median Growth Rate of Absorption and Consumption, 1990-2009; B. Estimating the Probability of a Crisis. 3. Probability of Absorption Drops4. Fundamentals and Marginal Effects on Crisis Probability; 5. Marginal Effects on the Probability of a Crisis; C. Cost of a Crisis; 5. Absorption Loss Regression; D. Robustness Checks; V. Optimal Precautionary Reserves: Calibration Results; A. Benchmark Calibration and Sensitivity Analysis; 6. Calibrated Optimal Reserves for Low-Income Countries; B. Results across Country Groups; 6. Sensitivity of Optimal Reserves to Country Fundamentals; 7. Actual vs. Computed Reserves, 2008-09; VI. Conclusion; A.I Variables Used in Regression Analysis. A. II Absortpion Drop Probit Regression --
Robustness CheckA. III Probability of Consumption Drops; A. IV Absorption Loss Regression --
Robustness Check; A.V Consumption Loss Regression; A. VI Sensitivity Analysis of Calibrated Optimal Reserves; A. VII List of Countries in the Sample; References; Footnotes.
Series Title: IMF working paper, WP/11/249.
Responsibility: Era Dabla-Norris, Jun Il Kim, and Kazuko Shorono [sic].

Abstract:

This paper develops a cost-benefit approach that helps to quantify the optimal level of international reserves in low-income countries, focusing on the role of reserves in preventing and mitigating absorption drops triggered by large external shocks. The approach is applied to a sample of 49 LICs over the period 1980-2008 to yield estimates of the likelihood and severity of a crisis. The calibration results suggest that the standard metric of three months of imports is inadequate for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes. The results also highlight the role of overall policy frameworks and availability of Fund-support in determining optimal reserve levels, raising questions about the uniform applicability of standard rules of thumb across countries.

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