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Party influence in Congress and the economy

Author: Erik Snowberg; Justin Wolfers; Eric Zitzewitz; National Bureau of Economic Research.
Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2006.
Series: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 12751.
Edition/Format:   eBook : Document : EnglishView all editions and formats
Database:WorldCat
Summary:
To understand the extent to which partisan majorities in Congress influence economic policy, we compare financial market responses in recent midterm elections to Presidential elections. We use prediction markets tracking election outcomes as a means of precisely timing and calibrating the arrival of news, allowing substantially more precise estimates than a traditional event study methodology. We find that equity  Read more...
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Material Type: Document, Internet resource
Document Type: Internet Resource, Computer File
All Authors / Contributors: Erik Snowberg; Justin Wolfers; Eric Zitzewitz; National Bureau of Economic Research.
OCLC Number: 76968579
Description: 1 online resource (1 volume).
Series Title: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research), no. 12751.
Responsibility: Erik Snowberg, Justin Wolfers, Eric Zitzewitz.

Abstract:

To understand the extent to which partisan majorities in Congress influence economic policy, we compare financial market responses in recent midterm elections to Presidential elections. We use prediction markets tracking election outcomes as a means of precisely timing and calibrating the arrival of news, allowing substantially more precise estimates than a traditional event study methodology. We find that equity values, oil prices, and Treasury yields are slightly higher with Republican majorities in Congress, and that a switch in the majority party in a chamber of Congress has an impact that is only 10-30 percent of that of the Presidency. We also find evidence inconsistent with the popular view that divided government is better for equities, finding instead that equity valuations increase monotonically, albeit slightly, with the degree of Republican control.

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